skip to main content

Title: CRISP: Consensus Regularized Selection based Prediction
Integrating regularization methods with standard loss functions such as the least squares, hinge loss, etc., within a regression framework has become a popular choice for researchers to learn predictive models with lower variance and better generalization ability. Regularizers also aid in building interpretable models with high-dimensional data which makes them very appealing. It is observed that each regularizer is uniquely formulated in order to capture data-specific properties such as correlation, structured sparsity and temporal smoothness. The problem of obtaining a consensus among such diverse regularizers while learning a predictive model is extremely important in order to determine the optimal regularizer for the problem. The advantage of such an approach is that it preserves the simplicity of the final model learned by selecting a single candidate model which is not the case with ensemble methods as they use multiple candidate models for prediction. This is called the consensus regularization problem which has not received much attention in the literature due to the inherent difficulty associated with learning and selecting a model from an integrated regularization framework. To solve this problem, in this paper, we propose a method to generate a committee of non-convex regularized linear regression models, and use a consensus more » criterion to determine the optimal model for prediction. Each corresponding non-convex optimization problem in the committee is solved efficiently using the cyclic-coordinate descent algorithm with the generalized thresholding operator. Our Consensus RegularIzation Selection based Prediction (CRISP) model is evaluated on electronic health records (EHRs) obtained from a large hospital for the congestive heart failure readmission prediction problem. We also evaluate our model on high-dimensional synthetic datasets to assess its performance. The results indicate that CRISP outperforms several state-of-the-art methods such as additive, interactions-based and other competing non-convex regularized linear regression methods. « less
Authors:
; ; ;
Award ID(s):
1231742
Publication Date:
NSF-PAR ID:
10021822
Journal Name:
Proceedings of the 25th ACM International on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management
Page Range or eLocation-ID:
1019 to 1028
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. The scale of modern datasets necessitates the development of efficient distributed optimization methods for machine learning. We present a general-purpose framework for distributed computing environments, CoCoA, that has an efficient communication scheme and is applicable to a wide variety of problems in machine learning and signal processing. We extend the framework to cover general non-strongly-convex regularizers, including L1-regularized problems like lasso, sparse logistic regression, and elastic net regularization, and show how earlier work can be derived as a special case. We provide convergence guarantees for the class of convex regularized loss minimization objectives, leveraging a novel approach in handling non-strongly-convexmore »regularizers and non-smooth loss functions. The resulting framework has markedly improved performance over state-of-the-art methods, as we illustrate with an extensive set of experiments on real distributed datasets.« less
  2. The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting, that is, accurate predictions despite overfitting training data. In this article, we survey recent progress in statistical learningmore »theory that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behaviour of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favourable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.« less
  3. We develop a convex analytic framework for ReLU neural networks which elucidates the inner workings of hidden neurons and their function space characteristics. We show that neural networks with rectified linear units act as convex regularizers, where simple solutions are encouraged via extreme points of a certain convex set. For one dimensional regression and classification, as well as rank-one data matrices, we prove that finite two-layer ReLU networks with norm regularization yield linear spline interpolation. We characterize the classification decision regions in terms of a closed form kernel matrix and minimum L1 norm solutions. This is in contrast to Neuralmore »Tangent Kernel which is unable to explain neural network predictions with finitely many neurons. Our convex geometric description also provides intuitive explanations of hidden neurons as auto encoders. In higher dimensions, we show that the training problem for two-layer networks can be cast as a finite dimensional convex optimization problem with infinitely many constraints. We then provide a family of convex relaxations to approximate the solution, and a cutting-plane algorithm to improve the relaxations. We derive conditions for the exactness of the relaxations and provide simple closed form formulas for the optimal neural network weights in certain cases. We also establish a connection to ℓ0-ℓ1 equivalence for neural networks analogous to the minimal cardinality solutions in compressed sensing. Extensive experimental results show that the proposed approach yields interpretable and accurate models.« less
  4. Abstract Understanding the physical drivers of seasonal hydroclimatic variability and improving predictive skill remains a challenge with important socioeconomic and environmental implications for many regions around the world. Physics-based deterministic models show limited ability to predict precipitation as the lead time increases, due to imperfect representation of physical processes and incomplete knowledge of initial conditions. Similarly, statistical methods drawing upon established climate teleconnections have low prediction skill due to the complex nature of the climate system. Recently, promising data-driven approaches have been proposed, but they often suffer from overparameterization and overfitting due to the short observational record, and they oftenmore »do not account for spatiotemporal dependencies among covariates (i.e., predictors such as sea surface temperatures). This study addresses these challenges via a predictive model based on a graph-guided regularizer that simultaneously promotes similarity of predictive weights for highly correlated covariates and enforces sparsity in the covariate domain. This approach both decreases the effective dimensionality of the problem and identifies the most predictive features without specifying them a priori. We use large ensemble simulations from a climate model to construct this regularizer, reducing the structural uncertainty in the estimation. We apply the learned model to predict winter precipitation in the southwestern United States using sea surface temperatures over the entire Pacific basin, and demonstrate its superiority compared to other regularization approaches and statistical models informed by known teleconnections. Our results highlight the potential to combine optimally the space–time structure of predictor variables learned from climate models with new graph-based regularizers to improve seasonal prediction.« less
  5. Positron emission tomography (PET) is traditionally modeled as discrete systems. Such models may be viewed as piecewise constant approximations of the underlying continuous model for the physical processes and geometry of the PET imaging. Due to the low accuracy of piecewise constant approximations, discrete models introduce an irreducible modeling error which fundamentally limits the quality of reconstructed images. To address this bottleneck, we propose an integral equation model for the PET imaging based on the physical and geometrical considerations, which describes accurately the true coincidences. We show that the proposed integral equation model is equivalent to the existing idealized modelmore »in terms of line integrals which is accurate but not suitable for numerical approximation. The proposed model allows us to discretize it using higher accuracy approximation methods. In particular, we discretize the integral equation by using the collocation principle with piecewise linear polynomials. The discretization leads to new ill-conditioned discrete systems for the PET reconstruction, which are further regularized by a novel wavelet-based regularizer. The resulting non-smooth optimization problem is then solved by a preconditioned proximity fixed-point algorithm. Convergence of the algorithm is established for a range of parameters involved in the algorithm. The proposed integral equation model combined with the discretization, regularization, and optimization algorithm provides a new PET image reconstruction method. Numerical results reveal that the proposed model substantially outperforms the conventional discrete model in terms of the consistency to simulated projection data and reconstructed image quality. This indicates that the proposed integral equation model with appropriate discretization and regularizer can significantly reduce modeling errors and suppress noise, which leads to improved image quality and projection data estimation.« less