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1. The unintended consequences of inconsistent closure policies and mobility restrictions during epidemics

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s44263-023-00028-z  

   Althouse, Benjamin M. ; Wallace, Brendan ; Case, B. K. M. ; Scarpino, Samuel V. ; Allard, Antoine ; Berdahl, Andrew M. ; White, Easton R. ; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent ( December 2023 , BMC Global and Public Health)

   Controlling the spread of infectious diseases―even when safe, transmission-blocking vaccines are available―may require the effective use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), e.g., mask wearing, testing, limits on group sizes, venue closure. During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many countries implemented NPIs inconsistently in space and time. This inconsistency was especially pronounced for policies in the United States of America (US) related to venue closure.

   Here, we investigate the impact of inconsistent policies associated with venue closure using mathematical modeling and high-resolution human mobility, Google search, and county-level SARS-CoV-2 incidence data from the USA. Specifically, we look at high-resolution location data and perform a US-county-level analysis of nearly 8 million SARS-CoV-2 cases and 150 million location visits, including 120 million church visitors across 184,677 churches, 14 million grocery visitors across 7662 grocery stores, and 13.5 million gym visitors across 5483 gyms.

   Analyzing the interaction between venue closure and changing mobility using a mathematical model shows that, across a broad range of model parameters, inconsistent or partial closure can be worse in terms of disease transmission as compared to scenarios with no closures at all. Importantly, changes in mobility patterns due to epidemic control measures can lead to increase in the future number of cases. In the most severe cases, individuals traveling to neighboring jurisdictions with different closure policies can result in an outbreak that would otherwise have been contained. To motivate our mathematical models, we turn to mobility data and find that while stay-at-home orders and closures decreased contacts in most areas of the USA, some specific activities and venues saw an increase in attendance and an increase in the distance visitors traveled to attend. We support this finding using search query data, which clearly shows a shift in information seeking behavior concurrent with the changing mobility patterns.

   While coarse-grained observations are not sufficient to validate our models, taken together, they highlight the potential unintended consequences of inconsistent epidemic control policies related to venue closure and stress the importance of balancing the societal needs of a population with the risk of an outbreak growing into a large epidemic.

    

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2. Why we should care about moral foundations when preparing for the next pandemic: Insights from Canada, the UK and the US

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0285549  

   Pizza, Lizette ; Ronfard, Samuel ; Coley, John D. ; Kelemen, Deborah ( May 2023 , PLOS ONE)

   Huynh, Luu Duc (Ed.)

   Health behaviors that do not effectively prevent disease can negatively impact psychological wellbeing and potentially drain motivations to engage in more effective behavior, potentially creating higher health risk. Despite this, studies linking “moral foundations” (i.e., concerns about harm, fairness, purity, authority, ingroup, and/or liberty) to health behaviors have generally been limited to a narrow range of behaviors, specifically effective ones. We therefore explored the degree to which moral foundations predicted a wider range of not only effective but ineffective (overreactive) preventative behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Study 1, participants from Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States reported their engagement in these preventative behaviors and completed a COVID-specific adaptation of the Moral Foundations Questionnaire during the pandemic peak. While differences occurred across countries, authority considerations consistently predicted increased engagement in both effective preventative behaviors but also ineffective overreactions, even when controlling for political ideology. By contrast, purity and liberty considerations reduced intentions to engage in effective behaviors like vaccination but had no effect on ineffective behaviors. Study 2 revealed that the influence of moral foundations on U.S participants’ behavior remained stable 5-months later, after the pandemic peak. These findings demonstrate that the impact of moral foundations on preventative behaviors is similar across a range of western democracies, and that recommendations by authorities can have unexpected consequences in terms of promoting ineffective—and potentially damaging—overreactive behaviors. The findings underscore the importance of moral concerns for the design of health interventions that selectively promote effective preventative behavior. 

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3. Not all mosquitoes are created equal: A synthesis of vector competence experiments reinforces virus associations of Australian mosquitoes

   https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010768  

   Kain, Morgan P. ; Skinner, Eloise B. ; Athni, Tejas S. ; Ramirez, Ana L. ; Mordecai, Erin A. ; van den Hurk, Andrew F. ( October 2022 , PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases)

   Brackney, Doug E. (Ed.)

   The globalization of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases has placed more than half of the human population at risk. Understanding arbovirus ecology, including the role individual mosquito species play in virus transmission cycles, is critical for limiting disease. Canonical virus-vector groupings, such as Aedes - or Culex -associated flaviviruses, have historically been defined using virus detection in field-collected mosquitoes, mosquito feeding patterns, and vector competence, which quantifies the intrinsic ability of a mosquito to become infected with and transmit a virus during a subsequent blood feed. Herein, we quantitatively synthesize data from 68 laboratory-based vector competence studies of 111 mosquito-virus pairings of Australian mosquito species and viruses of public health concern to further substantiate existing canonical vector-virus groupings and quantify variation within these groupings. Our synthesis reinforces current canonical vector-virus groupings but reveals substantial variation within them. While Aedes species were generally the most competent vectors of canonical “ Aedes -associated flaviviruses” (such as dengue, Zika, and yellow fever viruses), there are some notable exceptions; for example, Aedes notoscriptus is an incompetent vector of dengue viruses. Culex spp. were the most competent vectors of many traditionally Culex -associated flaviviruses including West Nile, Japanese encephalitis and Murray Valley encephalitis viruses, although some Aedes spp. are also moderately competent vectors of these viruses. Conversely, many different mosquito genera were associated with the transmission of the arthritogenic alphaviruses, Ross River, Barmah Forest, and chikungunya viruses. We also confirm that vector competence is impacted by multiple barriers to infection and transmission within the mesenteron and salivary glands of the mosquito. Although these barriers represent important bottlenecks, species that were susceptible to infection with a virus were often likely to transmit it. Importantly, this synthesis provides essential information on what species need to be targeted in mosquito control programs. 

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4. Cross‐Sectional Psychological and Demographic Associations of Zika Knowledge and Conspiracy Beliefs Before and After Local Zika Transmission

   https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13369  

   Piltch‐Loeb, Rachael ; Zikmund‐Fisher, Brian J. ; Shaffer, Victoria A. ; Scherer, Laura D. ; Knaus, Megan ; Fagerlin, Angie ; Abramson, David M. ; Scherer, Aaron M. ( July 2019 , Risk Analysis)

   Perceptions of infectious diseases are important predictors of whether people engage in disease‐specific preventive behaviors. Having accurate beliefs about a given infectious disease has been found to be a necessary condition for engaging in appropriate preventive behaviors during an infectious disease outbreak, while endorsing conspiracy beliefs can inhibit preventive behaviors. Despite their seemingly opposing natures, knowledge and conspiracy beliefs may share some of the same psychological motivations, including a relationship with perceived risk and self‐efficacy (i.e., control). The 2015–2016 Zika epidemic provided an opportunity to explore this. The current research provides some exploratory tests of this topic derived from two studies with similar measures, but different primary outcomes: one study that included knowledge of Zika as a key outcome and one that included conspiracy beliefs about Zika as a key outcome. Both studies involved cross‐sectional data collections that occurred during the same two periods of the Zika outbreak: one data collection prior to the first cases of local Zika transmission in the United States (March–May 2016) and one just after the first cases of local transmission (July–August). Using ordinal logistic and linear regression analyses of data from two time points in both studies, the authors show an increase in relationship strength between greater perceived risk and self‐efficacy with both increased knowledge and increased conspiracy beliefs after local Zika transmission in the United States. Although these results highlight that similar psychological motivations may lead to Zika knowledge and conspiracy beliefs, there was a divergence in demographic association.

    

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5. Using body size as an indicator for age structure in field populations of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae)

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s13071-022-05605-z  

   Gutiérrez, Eileen H. Jeffrey ; Riehle, M. A. ; Walker, K. R. ; Ernst, K. C. ; Davidowitz, G. ( December 2022 , Parasites & Vectors)

   TheAedesaegyptimosquito is a vector of several viruses including dengue, chikungunya, zika, and yellow fever. Vector surveillance and control are the primary methods used for the control and prevention of disease transmission; however, public health institutions largely rely on measures of population abundance as a trigger for initiating control activities. Previous research found evidence that at the northern edge ofAe.aegypti’s geographic range, survival, rather than abundance, is likely to be the factor limiting disease transmission. In this study, we sought to test the utility of using body size as an entomological index to surveil changes in the age structure of field-collected femaleAedesaegypti.

   We collected femaleAe.aegyptimosquitoes using BG sentinel traps in three cities at the northern edge of their geographic range. Collections took place during their active season over the course of 3 years. Female wing size was measured as an estimate of body size, and reproductive status was characterized by examining ovary tracheation. Chronological age was determined by measuring transcript abundance of an age-dependent gene. These data were then tested with female abundance at each site and weather data from the estimated larval development period and adulthood (1 week prior to capture). Two sources of weather data were tested to determine which was more appropriate for evaluating impacts on mosquito physiology. All variables were then used to parameterize structural equation models to predict age.

   In comparing city-specific NOAA weather data and site-specific data from HOBO remote temperature and humidity loggers, we found that HOBO data were more tightly associated with body size. This information is useful for justifying the cost of more precise weather monitoring when studying intra-population heterogeneity of eco-physiological factors. We found that body size itself was not significantly associated with age. Of all the variables measured, we found that best fitting model for age included temperature during development, body size, female abundance, and relative humidity in the 1 week prior to capture . The strength of models improved drastically when testing one city at a time, with Hermosillo (the only study city with seasonal dengue transmission) having the best fitting model for age. Despite our finding that there was a bias in the body size of mosquitoes collected alive from the BG sentinel traps that favored large females, there was still sufficient variation in the size of females collected alive to show that inclusion of this entomological indicator improved the predictive capacity of our models.

   Inclusion of body size data increased the strength of weather-based models for age. Importantly, we found that variation in age was greater within cities than between cities, suggesting that modeling of age must be made on a city-by-city basis. These results contribute to efforts to use weather forecasts to predict changes in the probability of disease transmission by mosquito vectors.

    

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