The wind-driven meridional overturning circulation between the tropical and subtropical oceans is important for regulating decadal-scale temperature fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean and globally. An acceleration of the overturning circulation can act to reduce global surface temperature as ocean stores more heat. The equatorward low-latitude western boundary current represents a key component of the meridional circulation cell in the Pacific and a major source of water mass for the Equatorial Undercurrent, yet long-term observations of its transport are scarce. Here we demonstrate that the15N/14N ratio recorded by
Human alteration of the global nitrogen cycle intensified over the 1900s. Model simulations suggest that large swaths of the open ocean, including the North Atlantic and the western Pacific, have already been affected by anthropogenic nitrogen through atmospheric transport and deposition. Here we report an ∼130-year-long record of the15N/14N of skeleton-bound organic matter in a coral from the outer reef of Bermuda, which provides a test of the hypothesis that anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen has significantly augmented the nitrogen supply to the open North Atlantic surface ocean. The Bermuda15N/14N record does not show a long-term decline in the Anthropocene of the amplitude predicted by model simulations or observed in a western Pacific coral15N/14N record. Rather, the decadal variations in the Bermuda15N/14N record appear to be driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation, most likely through changes in the formation rate of Subtropical Mode Water. Given that anthropogenic nitrogen emissions have been decreasing in North America since the 1990s, this study suggests that in the coming decades, the open North Atlantic will remain minimally affected by anthropogenic nitrogen deposition.
more » « less- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10076561
- Publisher / Repository:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 115
- Issue:
- 42
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 10606-10611
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract The Gulf of Maine and surrounding western North Atlantic shelf are some of the fastest warming regions of the worlds oceans. The lack of long-term observational records from this area inhibits the ability to assess the timing and initial causes of this warming and consequently accurately predict future changes to this ecologically and economically important region. Here we present oxygen, nitrogen, and radiocarbon isotope data measured in Arctica islandica shells collected in the western North Atlantic to better understand the past temperature and ocean circulation variability of the region over the last 300 years. We combine these results with output from the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble simulations to assess the temporal and spatial context of these isotope records. We find that the isotope records capture the end and reversal of a millennium-scale cooling trend in the Gulf of Maine. Last Millennium Ensemble single-forcing simulations indicate that this cooling trend appears to be largely driven by volcanic forcing. The nitrogen and radiocarbon records indicate that ocean circulation is in part driving the reconstructed hydrographic changes, pointing to a potential role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in regulating Gulf of Maine temperatures as suggested by the Last Millennium Ensemble simulations. Both isotope and model results suggest that the Gulf of Maine began to warm in the late 19th century, ultimately driven by increased greenhouse gas forcing. Plain-language Summary The Gulf of Maine, located off of the Eastern Coast of the United States, has experienced significant temperature increases recently. Because the instrumental record only began in 1905, we do not have a good idea of when this warming began and what may have initially caused the warming. Here, we analyze the chemistry of clam shells, which have grown in the Gulf of Maine for hundreds of years, to infer past changes in ocean temperatures and water properties. We combine these results with output from a climate model to reveal that the temperatures reconstructed from the clams shells agree well with the model during the period of overlap. Both the chemical records and the model suggest the Gulf of Maine started warming in the late 1800s as a result of increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Before this warming began, the Gulf of Maine region appears to have been cooling. The model suggests that this cooling trend is likely due to the influence of volcanic eruptions. The chemical records from the clam shells also suggest that part of this cooling is likely related to changing ocean circulation patterns.more » « less
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BACKGROUND The availability of nitrogen (N) to plants and microbes has a major influence on the structure and function of ecosystems. Because N is an essential component of plant proteins, low N availability constrains the growth of plants and herbivores. To increase N availability, humans apply large amounts of fertilizer to agricultural systems. Losses from these systems, combined with atmospheric deposition of fossil fuel combustion products, introduce copious quantities of reactive N into ecosystems. The negative consequences of these anthropogenic N inputs—such as ecosystem eutrophication and reductions in terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity—are well documented. Yet although N availability is increasing in many locations, reactive N inputs are not evenly distributed globally. Furthermore, experiments and theory also suggest that global change factors such as elevated atmospheric CO 2 , rising temperatures, and altered precipitation and disturbance regimes can reduce the availability of N to plants and microbes in many terrestrial ecosystems. This can occur through increases in biotic demand for N or reductions in its supply to organisms. Reductions in N availability can be observed via several metrics, including lowered nitrogen concentrations ([N]) and isotope ratios (δ 15 N) in plant tissue, reduced rates of N mineralization, and reduced terrestrial N export to aquatic systems. However, a comprehensive synthesis of N availability metrics, outside of experimental settings and capable of revealing large-scale trends, has not yet been carried out. ADVANCES A growing body of observations confirms that N availability is declining in many nonagricultural ecosystems worldwide. Studies have demonstrated declining wood δ 15 N in forests across the continental US, declining foliar [N] in European forests, declining foliar [N] and δ 15 N in North American grasslands, and declining [N] in pollen from the US and southern Canada. This evidence is consistent with observed global-scale declines in foliar δ 15 N and [N] since 1980. Long-term monitoring of soil-based N availability indicators in unmanipulated systems is rare. However, forest studies in the northeast US have demonstrated decades-long decreases in soil N cycling and N exports to air and water, even in the face of elevated atmospheric N deposition. Collectively, these studies suggest a sustained decline in N availability across a range of terrestrial ecosystems, dating at least as far back as the early 20th century. Elevated atmospheric CO 2 levels are likely a main driver of declines in N availability. Terrestrial plants are now uniformly exposed to ~50% more of this essential resource than they were just 150 years ago, and experimentally exposing plants to elevated CO 2 often reduces foliar [N] as well as plant-available soil N. In addition, globally-rising temperatures may raise soil N supply in some systems but may also increase N losses and lead to lower foliar [N]. Changes in other ecosystem drivers—such as local climate patterns, N deposition rates, and disturbance regimes—individually affect smaller areas but may have important cumulative effects on global N availability. OUTLOOK Given the importance of N to ecosystem functioning, a decline in available N is likely to have far-reaching consequences. Reduced N availability likely constrains the response of plants to elevated CO 2 and the ability of ecosystems to sequester carbon. Because herbivore growth and reproduction scale with protein intake, declining foliar [N] may be contributing to widely reported declines in insect populations and may be negatively affecting the growth of grazing livestock and herbivorous wild mammals. Spatial and temporal patterns in N availability are not yet fully understood, particularly outside of Europe and North America. Developments in remote sensing, accompanied by additional historical reconstructions of N availability from tree rings, herbarium specimens, and sediments, will show how N availability trajectories vary among ecosystems. Such assessment and monitoring efforts need to be complemented by further experimental and theoretical investigations into the causes of declining N availability, its implications for global carbon sequestration, and how its effects propagate through food webs. Responses will need to involve reducing N demand via lowering atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, and/or increasing N supply. Successfully mitigating and adapting to declining N availability will require a broader understanding that this phenomenon is occurring alongside the more widely recognized issue of anthropogenic eutrophication. Intercalibration of isotopic records from leaves, tree rings, and lake sediments suggests that N availability in many terrestrial ecosystems has steadily declined since the beginning of the industrial era. Reductions in N availability may affect many aspects of ecosystem functioning, including carbon sequestration and herbivore nutrition. Shaded areas indicate 80% prediction intervals; marker size is proportional to the number of measurements in each annual mean. Isotope data: (tree ring) K. K. McLauchlan et al. , Sci. Rep. 7 , 7856 (2017); (lake sediment) G. W. Holtgrieve et al. , Science 334 , 1545–1548 (2011); (foliar) J. M. Craine et al. , Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2 , 1735–1744 (2018)more » « less
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