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Simulation models of critical systems often have parameters that need to be calibrated using observed data. For expensive simulation models, calibration is done using an emulator of the simulation model built on simulation output at different parameter settings. Using intelligent and adaptive selection of parameters to build the emulator can drastically improve the efficiency of the calibration process. The article proposes a sequential framework with a novel criterion for parameter selection that targets learning the posterior density of the parameters. The emergent behavior from this criterion is that exploration happens by selecting parameters in uncertain posterior regions while simultaneously exploitation happens by selecting parameters in regions of high posterior density. The advantages of the proposed method are illustrated using several simulation experiments and a nuclear physics reaction model.
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Spherical Minimum Description Length
We consider the problem of model selection using the Minimum Description Length (MDL) criterion for distributions with parameters on the hypersphere. Model selection algorithms aim to find a compromise between goodness of fit and model complexity. Variables often considered for complexity penalties involve number of parameters, sample size and shape of the parameter space, with the penalty term often referred to as stochastic complexity. Current model selection criteria either ignore the shape of the parameter space or incorrectly penalize the complexity of the model, largely because typical Laplace approximation techniques yield inaccurate results for curved spaces. We demonstrate how the use of a constrained Laplace approximation on the hypersphere yields a novel complexity measure that more accurately reflects the geometry of these spherical parameters spaces. We refer to this modified model selection criterion as spherical MDL. As proof of concept, spherical MDL is used for bin selection in histogram density estimation, performing favorably against other model selection criteria.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1743050
- PAR ID:
- 10088689
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Entropy
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 1099-4300
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 575
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/e20080575
