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We introduce VISTA, a clustering approach for multivariate and irregularly sampled time series based on a parametric state space mixture model. VISTA is specifically designed for the unsupervised identification of groups in datasets originating from healthcare and psychology where such sampling issues are commonplace. Our approach adapts linear Gaussian state space models (LGSSMs) to provide a flexible parametric framework for fitting a wide range of time series dynamics. The clustering approach itself is based on the assumption that the population can be represented as a mixture of a fixed number of LGSSMs. VISTA’s model formulation allows for an explicit derivation of the log-likelihood function, from which we develop an expectation-maximization scheme for fitting model parameters to the observed data samples. Our algorithmic implementation is designed to handle populations of multivariate time series that can exhibit large changes in sampling rate as well as irregular sampling. We evaluate the versatility and accuracy of our approach on simulated and real-world datasets, including demographic trends, wearable sensor data, epidemiological time series, and ecological momentary assessments. Our results indicate that VISTA outperforms most comparable standard times series clustering methods. We provide an open-source implementation of VISTA in Python.
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Clustering time series with nonlinear dynamics: A Bayesian non-parametric and particle-based approach
We propose a statistical framework for clustering multiple time series that exhibit nonlinear dynamics into an a-priori-unknown number of sub-groups that each comprise time series with similar dynamics. Our motivation comes from neuroscience where an important problem is to identify, within a large assembly of neurons, sub-groups that respond similarly to a stimulus or contingency. In the neural setting, conditioned on cluster membership and the parameters governing the dynamics, time series within a cluster are assumed independent and generated according to a nonlinear binomial state-space model. We derive a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm for full Bayesian inference that alternates between sampling of cluster membership and sampling of parameters of interest. The Metropolis step is a PMMH iteration that requires an unbiased, low variance estimate of the likelihood function of a nonlinear state- space model. We leverage recent results on controlled sequential Monte Carlo to estimate likelihood functions more efficiently compared to the bootstrap particle filter. We apply the framework to time series acquired from the prefrontal cortex of mice in an experiment designed to characterize the neural underpinnings of fear.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1712872
- PAR ID:
- 10089652
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- AISTATS
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- The DOI is not currently available.
