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Abstract The Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP) aims to improve our understanding of extreme rainfall processes in the East Asian summer monsoon. A convection-permitting ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system (the PSU WRF-EnKF system) was run in real time in the summers of 2020–21 in advance of the 2022 field campaign, assimilating all-sky infrared (IR) radiances from the geostationary Himawari-8 and GOES-16 satellites, and providing 48-h ensemble forecasts every day for weather briefings and discussions. This is the first time that all-sky IR data assimilation has been performed in a real-time forecast system at a convection-permitting resolution for several seasons. Compared with retrospective forecasts that exclude all-sky IR radiances, rainfall predictions are statistically significantly improved out to at least 4–6 h for the real-time forecasts, which is comparable to the time scale of improvements gained from assimilating observations from the dense ground-based Doppler weather radars. The assimilation of all-sky IR radiances also reduced the forecast errors of large-scale environments and helped to maintain a more reasonable ensemble spread compared with the counterpart experiments that did not assimilate all-sky IR radiances. The results indicate strong potential for improving routine short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts using these high-spatiotemporal-resolution satellite observations in the future. Significance Statement During the summers of 2020/21, the PSU WRF-EnKF data assimilation and forecast system was run in real time in advance of the 2022 Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP), assimilating all-sky (clear-sky and cloudy) infrared radiances from geostationary satellites into a numerical weather prediction model and providing ensemble forecasts. This study presents the first-of-its-kind systematic evaluation of the impacts of assimilating all-sky infrared radiances on short-term qualitative precipitation forecasts using multiyear, multiregion, real-time ensemble forecasts. Results suggest that rainfall forecasts are improved out to at least 4–6 h with the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiances, comparable to the influence of assimilating radar observations, with benefits in forecasting large-scale environments and representing atmospheric uncertainties as well.
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Single-footprint retrievals for AIRS using a fast TwoSlab cloud-representation model and the SARTA all-sky infrared radiative transfer algorithm
Abstract. One-dimensional variational retrievals of temperature and moisture fields from hyperspectral infrared (IR) satellite sounders use cloud-cleared radiances (CCRs) as their observation. These derived observations allow the use of clear-sky-only radiative transfer in the inversion for geophysical variables but at reduced spatial resolution compared to the native sounder observations. Cloud clearing can introduce various errors, although scenes with large errors can be identified and ignored. Information content studies show that, when using multilayer cloud liquid and ice profiles in infrared hyperspectral radiative transfer codes, there are typically only 2–4 degrees of freedom (DOFs) of cloud signal. This implies a simplified cloud representation is sufficient for some applications which need accurate radiative transfer. Here we describe a single-footprint retrieval approach for clear and cloudy conditions, which uses the thermodynamic and cloud fields from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models as a first guess, together with a simple cloud-representation model coupled to a fast scattering radiative transfer algorithm (RTA). The NWP model thermodynamic and cloud profiles are first co-located to the observations, after which the N-level cloud profiles are converted to two slab clouds (TwoSlab; typically one for ice and one for water clouds). From these, one run of our fast cloud-representation model allows an improvement of the a priori cloud state by comparing the observed and model-simulated radiances in the thermal window channels. The retrieval yield is over 90%, while the degrees of freedom correlate with the observed window channel brightness temperature (BT) which itself depends on the cloud optical depth. The cloud-representation and scattering package is benchmarked against radiances computed using a maximum random overlap (RMO) cloud scheme. All-sky infrared radiances measured by NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and NWP thermodynamic and cloud profiles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast model are used in this paper.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1726023
- PAR ID:
- 10107576
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Atmospheric Measurement Techniques
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 1867-8548
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 529 to 550
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-529-2018
