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Climate change risks like extreme temperatures and high variability in rainfall adversely affect livelihoods, particularly for farmers in Burkina Faso where the primary sector is agriculture. Decisions on whether to adapt to these risks depend on how farmers perceive each risk and the resources they have available. In this study, we examine how long-term changes in temperature and rainfall are perceived by farmers in Burkina Faso. We also compare the extent to which these perceptions align with actual recorded changes in temperature and rainfall for multiple periods between 1991 and 2014. We use a logistic regression model to analyze the role of resources, such as asset ownership and perceived standards of living, along with household size, age, and gender of the household head to explain differences in perception and ultimately the decision to adapt. Our results show that the vast majority of farmers in Burkina Faso perceive changes in temperature and rainfall; however, only about half of those individuals perceive changes in ways that align with recorded long-term trends in their local temperature or rainfall. The extent to which those perceptions align with recorded changes depends on the time frame selected. Older farmers and those with assets were less likely to perceive temperature and rainfall trends in ways that aligned with climate records; however, farmers' perceptions of temperature change aligning with records and their perceived standard of living were both associated with the decision to adapt. This misalignment of perceptions with records and resources has significant implications for efforts to inform and support climate risk mitigation and adaptation.
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Climate Variability and Farmers’ Perception in Southern Ethiopia
The study aims to analyze climate variability and farmers’ perception in Southern Ethiopia. Gridded annual temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for the period between 1983 and 2014. Using a multistage sampling technique, 403 farm households were surveyed to substantiate farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change. The study applied a nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests to detect the magnitude and statistical significance of climate variability and binary logit regression model to find factors influencing farm households’ perceptions about climate variability over three agroecological zones (AEZs). The trend analysis reveals that positive trends were observed in the annual maximum temperature, 0.02°C/year ( p < 0.01 ) in the lowland and 0.04°C/year ( p < 0.01 ) in the highland AEZs. The positive trend in annual minimum temperature was consistent in all AEZs and significant ( p < 0.01 ). An upward trend in the annual total rainfall (10 mm/year) ( p < 0.05 ) was recorded in the midland AEZ. Over 60% of farmers have perceived increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in all AEZs. However, farmers’ perception about rainfall in the midland AEZ contradicts with meteorological analysis. Results from the binary logit model inform that farmers’ climate change perceptions are significantly influenced by their access to climate and market information, agroecology, education, agricultural input, and village market distance. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance farm households’ capacity by providing timely weather and climate information along with institutional actions such as agricultural extension services.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1639214
- PAR ID:
- 10109666
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Advances in Meteorology
- Volume:
- 2019
- ISSN:
- 1687-9309
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 19
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/7341465
