Cost overruns averaging 45%–50% can occur during the acquisition process of large‐scale complex space programs. The factors that impact the cost overrun are frequently misunderstood and are not identified correctly. This paper investigates the impact of the parameters on the overall cost of a geosynchronous communication satellite program using model‐based global sensitivity analysis. A simulation model with the acquisition data was used to identify the key parameters within the system model that interact with the cost of the program. A system simulation model containing a physics‐based satellite model and a parametric cost model is utilized to conduct variance‐based sensitivity analysis. Data from selected acquisition reports are used to validate the system simulation model. Sobol' analysis is performed on the parameters associated with requirements of the satellite system, operations, and support to maintain the system, including the launch system and ground equipment. The results show that parameters related to the system‐based requirements significantly impact the program cost. These critical parameters, which influence the cost, lay the foundation to quantify the impact of system parameters and their uncertainty on the cost of the system using a simulation‐based model which will aid in the reduction of cost overruns during the design and development of future large‐scale complex engineered systems.
Study of Cost Overrun and Delays of DoD’s Space Acquisition Program
Defense and Aerospace Systems Acquisition projects, just like any other Large-Scale Complex Engineered Systems (LSCES) experience delays and cost overrun during the acquisition process. Cost overrun and delays in LSCES are due, in part, to high complexity, size of the project, involvement of various stakeholders, organizations, political disruptions, changes in requirements and scope. These uncertainties, due to the exogenous factors, have cost the federal government billions of dollars and delays in completion of the programs. Cost estimation of federal programs is usually based on previous generations of systems produced and almost all the time the costs are underestimated. Underestimation of the cost of the programs is an endogenous factor, which results in cost overrun for any program, the behavior of the cost escalation is pre-forecasted to be normally distributed, but due to the cost overrun, the cost escalation curve may be skewed. In this paper, the authors will be studying the cost escalation and time delays of the Advanced Extremely High Frequency (AEHF), a DoD’s space acquisition program. The distribution of the cost and time can aid in understanding the effects of endogenous factors influencing the cost overrun and the effect of change in requirements during the acquisition process. This data will serve as a foundation for further research to create a framework, which will be used, in better forecasting of the cost of the acquisition of the programs.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1662883
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10109924
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the International Annual Conference of the American Society of Engineering Management
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
null (Ed.)Cost and schedule overruns are common in the procurement of large-scale defense acquisition programs. Current work focuses on identifying the root causes of cost growth and schedule delays in the defense acquisition programs. There is need for a mix of quantitative and qualitative analysis of cost and schedule overruns which takes into account program factor such as, technology maturity, design maturity, initial acquisition time, and program complexity. Such analysis requires an easy to access database for program-specific data about how an acquisition programs’ technical and financial characteristics vary over the time. To fulfill this need, the objective of this paper is twofold: (i) to develop a database of major US defense weapons programs which includes details of the technical and financial characteristics and how they vary over time, and (ii) to test various hypotheses about the interdependence of such characteristics using the collected data. To achieve the objective, we use a mixed-method analysis on schedule and cost growth data available in the U.S. Government Accountability Office's (GAO's) defense acquisitions annual assessments during the period 2003-2017. We extracted both analytical and textual data from original reports into Excel files and further created an easy to access database accessible from a Python environment. The analysis reveals that technology immaturity is the major driver of cost and schedule growth during the early stages of the acquisition programs while technical inefficiencies drive cost overruns and schedule delays during the later stages. Further, we find that the acquisition programs with longer initial length do not necessarily have higher greater cost growth. The dataset and the results provide a useful starting point for the research community for modeling cost and schedule overruns, and for practitioners to inform their systems acquisition processes.more » « less
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