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1. Climate Change and Stability of Urban Infrastructure in Russian Permafrost Regions: Prognostic Assessment based on GCM Climate Projections

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gere.12214  

   Shiklomanov, Nikolay I. ; Streletskiy, Dmitry A. ; Swales, Timothy B. ; Kokorev, Vasily A. ( January 2017 , Geographical Review)
2. Evaluation of the Climate Extremes Index over the United States using 20th and mid‐21st century North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program data

   https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6286  

   Aiken, Emily K. ; Rauscher, Sara A. ( September 2019 , International Journal of Climatology)

   Much of our current risk assessment, especially for extreme events and natural disasters, comes from the assumption that the likelihood of future extreme events can be predicted based on the past. However, as global temperatures rise, established climate ranges may no longer be applicable, as historic records for extremes such as heat waves and floods may no longer accurately predict the changing future climate. To assess extremes (present‐day and future) over the contiguous United States, we used NOAA's Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which evaluates extremes in maximum and minimum temperature, extreme one‐day precipitation, days without precipitation, and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). The CEI is a spatially sensitive index that uses percentile‐based thresholds rather than absolute values to determine climate “extremeness” and is thus well‐suited to compare extreme climate across regions. We used regional climate model data from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to compare a late 20th century reference period to a mid‐21st century “business as usual” (SRES A2) greenhouse gas‐forcing scenario. Results show a universal increase in extreme hot temperatures across all models, with annual average maximum and minimum temperatures exceeding 90th percentile thresholds consistently across the continental United States. Results for precipitation indicators have greater spatial variability from model to model, but indicate an overall movement towards less frequent but more extreme precipitation days in the future. Due to this difference in response between temperature and precipitation, the mid‐21st century CEI is primarily an index of temperature extremes, with 90th percentile temperatures contributing disproportionately to the overall increase in climate extremeness. We also examine the efficacy of the PDSI in this context in comparison to other drought indices.

    

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3. A global assessment of environmental and climate influences on wetland macroinvertebrate community structure and function

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17173  

   Epele, Luis B. ; Williams‐Subiza, Emilio A. ; Bird, Matthew S. ; Boissezon, Aurelie ; Boix, Dani ; Demierre, Eliane ; Fair, Conor G. ; García, Patricia E. ; Gascón, Stephanie ; Grech, Marta G. ; et al ( February 2024 , Global Change Biology)

   Estimating organisms' responses to environmental variables and taxon associations across broad spatial scales is vital for predicting their responses to climate change. Macroinvertebrates play a major role in wetland processes, but studies simultaneously exploring both community structure and community trait responses to environmental gradients are still lacking. We compiled a global dataset (six continents) from 756 depressional wetlands, including the occurrence of 96 macroinvertebrate families, their phylogenetic tree, and 19 biological traits. Using Bayesian hierarchical joint species distribution models (JSDMs), we estimated macroinvertebrate associations and compared the influences of local and climatic predictors on both individual macroinvertebrate families and their traits. While macroinvertebrate families were mainly related to broad‐scale factors (maximum temperature and precipitation seasonality), macroinvertebrate traits were strongly related to local wetland hydroperiod. Interestingly, macroinvertebrate families and traits both showed positive and negative associations to the same environmental variables. As expected, many macroinvertebrate family occurrences were positively associated with temperature, but a few showed the opposite pattern and were found in cooler or montane regions. We also found that wetland macroinvertebrate communities would likely be affected by changing climates through alterations in traits related to precipitation seasonality, temperature seasonality, and wetland area. Temperature increases may negatively affect collector and shredder functional groups. A decrease in precipitation could lead to reductions in wetland area benefiting drought‐tolerant macroinvertebrates, but it may negatively affect macroinvertebrates lacking those adaptations. Wetland processes may be compromised through broad‐scale environmental changes altering macroinvertebrate family distributions and local hydroperiod shifts altering organism traits. Our complementary family‐based and trait‐based approaches elucidate the complex effects that climate change may produce on wetland ecosystems.

    

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4. Future impacts of climate-induced compound disasters on volcano hazard assessment

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01542-y  

   Fink, Jonathan ; Ajibade, Idowu ( May 2022 , Bulletin of Volcanology)
5. Economic Assessment of Permafrost Degradation Effects on Road Infrastructure Sustainability under Climate Change in the Russian Arctic

   https://doi.org/10.1134/S1019331619060121  

   Porfiriev, B. N. ; Eliseev, D. O. ; Streletskiy, D. A. ( November 2019 , Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences)