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1. The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00344-6  

   Dong, Chunyu ; Williams, A. Park ; Abatzoglou, John T. ; Lin, Kairong ; Okin, Gregory S. ; Gillespie, Thomas W. ; Long, Di ; Lin, Yen-Heng ; Hall, Alex ; MacDonald, Glen M. ( February 2022 , Communications Earth & Environment)

   Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region has not significantly changed. Yet how fire regime will respond to future anthropogenic climate change remains an important question. Here, we estimate wildfire probability in southern California at station scale and daily resolution using random forest algorithms and downscaled earth system model simulations. We project that large fire days will increase from 36 days/year during 1970–1999 to 58 days/year under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP4.5) and 71 days/year by 2070–2099 under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The large fire season will be more intense and have an earlier onset and delayed end. Our findings suggest that despite the lack of a contemporary trend in fire regime, projected greenhouse gas emissions will substantially increase the fire danger in southern California by 2099.
2. Strength and variability of the Oligocene Southern Ocean surface temperature gradient

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00666-5  

   Hoem, Frida S. ; Sauermilch, Isabel ; Aleksinski, Adam K. ; Huber, Matthew ; Peterse, Francien ; Sangiorgi, Francesca ; Bijl, Peter K. ( December 2022 , Communications Earth & Environment)

   Abstract Large Oligocene Antarctic ice sheets co-existed with warm proximal waters offshore Wilkes Land. Here we provide a broader Southern Ocean perspective to such warmth by reconstructing the strength and variability of the Oligocene Australian-Antarctic latitudinal sea surface temperature gradient. Our Oligocene TEX 86 -based sea surface temperature record from offshore southern Australia shows temperate (20–29 °C) conditions throughout, despite northward tectonic drift. A persistent sea surface temperature gradient (~5–10 °C) exists between Australia and Antarctica, which increases during glacial intervals. The sea surface temperature gradient increases from ~26 Ma, due to Antarctic-proximal cooling. Meanwhile, benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope decline indicates ice loss/deep-sea warming. These contrasting patterns are difficult to explain by greenhouse gas forcing alone. Timing of the sea surface temperature cooling coincides with deepening of Drake Passage and matches results of ocean model experiments that demonstrate that Drake Passage opening cools Antarctic proximal waters. We conclude that Drake Passage deepening cooled Antarctic coasts which enhanced thermal isolation of Antarctica.
3. Global reconstruction reduces the uncertainty of oceanic nitrous oxide emissions and reveals a vigorous seasonal cycle

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1921914117  

   Yang, Simon ; Chang, Bonnie X. ; Warner, Mark J. ; Weber, Thomas S. ; Bourbonnais, Annie M. ; Santoro, Alyson E. ; Kock, Annette ; Sonnerup, Rolf E. ; Bullister, John L. ; Wilson, Samuel T. ; et al ( May 2020 , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   Assessment of the global budget of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (${\mathrm{N}}_2$O) is limited by poor knowledge of the oceanic${\mathrm{N}}_2$O flux to the atmosphere, of which the magnitude, spatial distribution, and temporal variability remain highly uncertain. Here, we reconstruct climatological${\mathrm{N}}_2$O emissions from the ocean by training a supervised learning algorithm with over 158,000${\mathrm{N}}_2$O measurements from the surface ocean—the largest synthesis to date. The reconstruction captures observed latitudinal gradients and coastal hot spots of${\mathrm{N}}_2$O flux and reveals a vigorous global seasonal cycle. We estimate an annual mean${\mathrm{N}}_2$O flux of 4.2 ± 1.0 Tg N$\cdot {\mathrm{y}}^{-1}$, 64% of which occurs in the tropics, and 20% in coastal upwelling systems that occupy less than 3% of the ocean area. This${\mathrm{N}}_2$O flux ranges from a low of 3.3 ± 1.3 Tg N$\cdot {\mathrm{y}}^{-1}$in the boreal spring to a high of 5.5 ± 2.0 Tg N$\cdot {\mathrm{y}}^{-1}$in the boreal summer. Much of the seasonal variations in global${\mathrm{N}}_2$O emissions can be traced to seasonal upwelling in the tropical ocean and winter mixing in the Southern Ocean. The dominant contribution to seasonality by productive, low-oxygen tropical upwelling systemsmore »(>75%) suggests a sensitivity of the global${\mathrm{N}}_2$O flux to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and anthropogenic stratification of the low latitude ocean. This ocean flux estimate is consistent with the range adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but reduces its uncertainty by more than fivefold, enabling more precise determination of other terms in the atmospheric${\mathrm{N}}_2$O budget.

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4. Characterizing uncertainty in climate impact projections: a case study with seven marine species on the North American continental shelf

   https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa103  

   Morley, James W ; Frölicher, Thomas L ; Pinsky, Malin L ( August 2020 , ICES Journal of Marine Science)

   Travers-Trolet, Morgane (Ed.)

   Abstract Projections of climate change impacts on living resources are being conducted frequently, and the goal is often to inform policy. Species projections will be more useful if uncertainty is effectively quantified. However, few studies have comprehensively characterized the projection uncertainty arising from greenhouse gas scenarios, Earth system models (ESMs), and both structural and parameter uncertainty in species distribution modelling. Here, we conducted 8964 unique 21st century projections for shifts in suitable habitat for seven economically important marine species including American lobster, Pacific halibut, Pacific ocean perch, and summer flounder. For all species, both the ESM used to simulate future temperatures and the niche modelling approach used to represent species distributions were important sources of uncertainty, while variation associated with parameter values in niche models was minor. Greenhouse gas emissions scenario contributed to uncertainty for projections at the century scale. The characteristics of projection uncertainty differed among species and also varied spatially, which underscores the need for improved multi-model approaches with a suite of ESMs and niche models forming the basis for uncertainty around projected impacts. Ensemble projections show the potential for major shifts in future distributions. Therefore, rigorous future projections are important for informing climate adaptation efforts.
5. Assessing the sequestration time scales of some ocean-based carbon dioxide reduction strategies

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac0be0  

   Siegel, D A ; DeVries, T ; Doney, S C ; Bell, T ( September 2021 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Abstract Ocean-based carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) strategies are an important part of the portfolio of approaches needed to achieve negative greenhouse gas emissions. Many ocean-based CDR strategies rely on injecting CO 2 or organic carbon (that will eventually become CO 2 ) into the ocean interior, or enhancing the ocean’s biological pump. These approaches will not result in permanent sequestration, because ocean currents will eventually return the injected CO 2 back to the surface, where it will be brought into equilibrium with the atmosphere. Here, a model of steady state global ocean circulation and mixing is used to assess the time scales over which CO 2 injected in the ocean interior remains sequestered from the atmosphere. There will be a distribution of sequestration times for any single discharge location due to the infinite number of pathways connecting a location at depth with the sea surface. The resulting probability distribution is highly skewed with a long tail of very long transit times, making mean sequestration times much longer than typical time scales. Deeper discharge locations will sequester purposefully injected CO 2 much longer than shallower ones and median sequestration times are typically decades to centuries, and approach 1000more »years in the deep North Pacific. Large differences in sequestration times occur both within and between the major ocean basins, with the Pacific and Indian basins generally having longer sequestration times than the Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Assessments made over a 50 year time horizon illustrates that most of the injected carbon will be retained for injection depths greater than 1000 m, with several geographic exceptions such as the Western North Atlantic. Ocean CDR strategies that increase upper ocean ecosystem productivity with the goal of exporting more carbon to depth will have mainly a short-term influence on atmospheric CO 2 levels because ∼70% will be transported back to the surface ocean within 50 years. The results presented here will help plan appropriate ocean CDR strategies that can help limit climate damage caused by fossil fuel CO 2 emissions.« less