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Increasing frequency and severity of drought is driving increased use of groundwater resources in arid regions of Northern Kenya, where approximately 2.5 million people depend on groundwater for personal use, livestock, and limited irrigation. As part of a broader effort to provide more sustainable water, sanitation, and hygiene services in the region, we have collected data related to site functionality and use for approximately 120 motorized boreholes across five counties. Using a multilevel model to account for geospatial and temporal clustering, we found that borehole sites, which counties had identified as strategic assets during drought, ran on average about 1.31 h less per day compared to non-strategic borehole sites. As this finding was contrary to our hypothesis that strategic boreholes would exhibit greater use on average compared to non-strategic boreholes, we consider possible explanations for this discrepancy. We also use a coupled human and natural systems framework to explore how policies and program activities in a complex system depend on consistent and reliable feedback mechanisms. Funding was provided by the United States Agency for International Development. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
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Quantifying increased groundwater demand from prolonged drought in the East African Rift Valley
Millions of people in the arid regions of Kenya and Ethiopia face water scarcity and frequent drought. Water resource forecasting and reliable operation of groundwater distribution systems may improve drought resilience. In this study, we examined three remote sensing data sets against in-situ sensor-collected groundwater extraction data from 221 water points serving over 1.34 million people across northern Kenya and Afar, Ethiopia between January 1, 2017 and August 31, 2018. In models containing rainfall as a binary variable, we observed an overall 23% increase in borehole runtime following weeks with no rainfall compared to weeks preceded by some rainfall. Further, a 1 mm increase in rainfall was associated with a 1% decrease in borehole use the following week. When surface water availability is reduced during the dry seasons, groundwater demand increases. Our findings emphasize the imperative to maintain functionality of groundwater boreholes in these regions which often suffer drought related emergencies. Funding provided by the United States Agency for International Development, the World Bank, the National Science Foundation, and the Cisco Foundation. The views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1738321
- PAR ID:
- 10113796
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Science of the total environment
- Volume:
- 666
- ISSN:
- 0048-9697
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1265-1272
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/j.scitotenv.2019.02.206
