Recently, due to accelerations in urban and industrial development, the health impact of air pollution has become a topic of key concern. Of the various forms of air pollution, fine atmospheric particulate matter (PM2.5; particles less than 2.5 micrometers in diameter) appears to pose the greatest risk to human health. While even moderate levels of PM2.5can be detrimental to health, spikes in PM2.5to atypically high levels are even more dangerous. These spikes are believed to be associated with regionally specific meteorological factors. To quantify these associations, we develop a Bayesian spatiotemporal quantile regression model to estimate the spatially varying effects of meteorological variables purported to be related to PM2.5levels. By adopting a quantile regression model, we are able to examine the entire distribution of PM2.5levels; for example, we are able to identify which meteorological drivers are related to abnormally high PM2.5levels. Our approach uses penalized splines to model the spatially varying meteorological effects and to account for spatiotemporal dependence. The performance of the methodology is evaluated through extensive numerical studies. We apply our modeling techniques to 5 years of daily PM2.5data collected throughout the eastern United States to reveal the effects of various meteorological drivers.
The frequent episodes of severe air pollution over China during recent years have posed serious health threats to densely populated eastern China. Although several studies investigated the linkage between enhanced severity and frequency of air pollution and the large‐scale weather patterns over China, the day‐to‐day covariability between them, as well as its local and remote mechanisms, has not been systematically documented. The wintertime synoptic covariability between PM2.5and large‐scale meteorological fields is studied using surface observations of PM2.5in 2013/2014–2016/2017 and ERA‐Interim meteorological fields through maximum covariance analysis (MCA). The first MCA mode (MCA1) suggests a consistent accumulation of ambient PM2.5as a result of weakened winds that block the pollutant removal passage in heavily polluted areas of eastern China, as well as moist air from southeast coast favoring haze formation. A northeast–southwest belt that extends into northeastern China and central China on each end is more sensitive to MCA1. The second MCA mode (MCA2) shows a north–south dipole in PM2.5linked to the contrast of boundary layer height and surface wind speed between northern and southern regions of China. Spatial patterns of both modes are supported by the GEOS‐Chem chemistry transport model with realistic emission inventory. The spatial patterns of the two modes are robust on the interannual time scales. Based on that, we investigate the variability of the first two modes of the identified modes on the multidecadal scale by projecting GPM_500 pattern to 1981–2010. Correlation analysis of the projected time series and climate indices over 30 years indicates the possible linkage of Arctic oscillation, ENSO indices, Pacific decadal oscillation and east Atlantic/western Russia to regional air pollution patterns over China.
more » « less- Award ID(s):
- 1701526
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10459354
- Publisher / Repository:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Atmospheric Science Letters
- Volume:
- 20
- Issue:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 1530-261X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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