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1. Low-frequency wave coupling in the ocean – Ross Ice Shelf – atmosphere system

   Zabotin, N. ; Godin, O.A. ; Bromirski, P. ; Jee, G. ; Lee, W.S. ; Yun, S. ; Zabotina, L. ( January 2019 , Geophysical research abstracts)

   null (Ed.)

   A part of the Southern Ocean, the Ross Sea, together with the Ross Ice Shelf and the atmosphere over the region represent a coupled system with respect to the low-frequency (with the periods longer than 1 hour) wave processes observed in the three media. We study interconnections between them using a unique combination of geophysical sensors: hydrophones measuring pressure variations on the bottom of the open ocean, seismographs measuring vertical displacements of the surface of the Ross Ice Shelf, and the Jang Bogo Dynasonde system measuring wave parameters at the altitudes of the lower thermosphere. Analysis of a year-long data sets from Ross Ice Shelf-based instruments reveals presence in their average power spectra of the peaks in the 2-11 hours period range that may be associated with the low-order resonance vibrations of the system. More harmonics of the 24 hour tide (seven) are detected by the RIS seismographs compared to the sea floor sensor (where only two are clearly visible). This may be a consequence of the RIS resonance-related broadband amplification effect predicted by our model. There are several peaks in the RIS vibration spectrum (T = 8.37, 8.23, 6.3 and 6.12 hours) that are not detected by the hydrophone and may be directly related to RIS resonances. The prominent T = 25.81 hour peak is a likely candidate for the sub-inertial RIS resonance. The periods of lower RIS resonance modes predicted by our simple model and the observed spectral peaks are in the same general band. This is the first direct observation of the resonance effects in vibrations of the Ross Ice Shelf. Our results demonstrate the key role of the resonances of the Ross Ice Shelf in maintaining the wave activity in the entire coupled system. We suggest that the ocean tide is a major source of excitation of the Ross Ice Shelf’s resonances. The ice shelf vibrations may also be supported by the energy transfer from wind, swell, and infragravity wave energy that couples with the ice shelf. Overlapping 6-month-long data sets reveal a significant linear correlation between the spectra of the vertical shifts of the Ross Ice Shelf and of the thermospheric waves with the periods of about 2.1, 3.7, and 11.1 hours. This result corroborates earlier lidar observations of persistent atmospheric wave activity over McMurdo. We propose a theory that quantifies the nexus between the ocean tide and the resonance vibrations of the Ross Ice Shelf. It complements the theoretical model of the process of generating the atmospheric waves by the resonance vibrations of the Ross Ice Shelf published by us earlier. 

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2. The climate variability trio: stochastic fluctuations, El Niño, and the seasonal cycle

   https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-023-00305-7  

   Stuecker, Malte F. ( November 2023 , Geoscience Letters)

   Climate variability has distinct spatial patterns with the strongest signal of sea surface temperature (SST) variance residing in the tropical Pacific. This interannual climate phenomenon, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), impacts weather patterns across the globe via atmospheric teleconnections. Pronounced SST variability, albeit of smaller amplitude, also exists in the other tropical basins as well as in the extratropical regions. To improve our physical understanding of internal climate variability across the global oceans, we here make the case for a conceptual model hierarchy that captures the essence of observed SST variability from subseasonal to decadal timescales. The building blocks consist of the classic stochastic climate model formulated by Klaus Hasselmann, a deterministic low-order model for ENSO variability, and the effect of the seasonal cycle on both of these models. This model hierarchy allows us to trace the impacts of seasonal processes on the statistics of observed and simulated climate variability. One of the important outcomes of ENSO’s interaction with the seasonal cycle is the generation of a frequency cascade leading to deterministic climate variability on a wide range of timescales, including the near-annual ENSO Combination Mode. Using the aforementioned building blocks, we arrive at a succinct conceptual model that delineates ENSO’s ubiquitous climate impacts and allows us to revisit ENSO’s observed statistical relationships with other coherent spatio-temporal patterns of climate variability—so called empirical modes of variability. We demonstrate the importance of correctly accounting for different seasonal phasing in the linear growth/damping rates of different climate phenomena, as well as the seasonal phasing of ENSO teleconnections and of atmospheric noise forcings. We discuss how previously some of ENSO’s relationships with other modes of variability have been misinterpreted due to non-intuitive seasonal cycle effects on both power spectra and lead/lag correlations. Furthermore, it is evident that ENSO’s impacts on climate variability outside the tropical Pacific are oftentimes larger than previously recognized and that accurately accounting for them has important implications. For instance, it has been shown that improved seasonal prediction skill can be achieved in the Indian Ocean by fully accounting for ENSO’s seasonally modulated and temporally integrated remote impacts. These results move us to refocus our attention to the tropical Pacific for understanding global patterns of climate variability and their predictability.

    

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3. Persistence of southern California giant kelp beds and alongshore variation in nutrient exposure driven by seasonal upwelling and internal waves

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2023.1007789  

   Leichter, James J. ; Ladah, Lydia B. ; Parnell, P. Ed ; Stokes, M. Dale ; Costa, Matthew T. ; Fumo, James ; Dayton, Paul K. ( March 2023 , Frontiers in Marine Science)

   Kelp beds provide significant ecosystem services and socioeconomic benefits globally, and prominently in coastal zones of the California Current. Their distributions and abundance, however, vary greatly over space and time. Here, we describe long-term patterns of Giant Kelp (Macrocystis pyrifera) sea surface canopy area off the coast of San Diego County from 1983 through 2019 along with recent patterns of water column nitrate (NO₃^-) exposure inferred fromin situtemperature data in 2014 and 2015 at sites spanning 30 km of the coastline near San Diego California, USA. Site-specific patterns of kelp persistence and resilience were associated with ocean and climate dynamics, with total sea surface kelp canopy area varying approximately 33-fold over the almost 4 decades (min 0.34 km²in 1984; max 11.25 km²in 2008, median 4.79 km²). Site-normalized canopy areas showed that recent kelp persistence since 2014 was greater at Point Loma and La Jolla, the largest kelp beds off California, than at the much smaller kelp bed off Cardiff. NO₃^-exposure was estimated from an 11-month time series ofin situwater column temperature collected in 2014 and 2015 at 4 kelp beds, using a relationship between temperature and NO₃^-concentration previously established for the region. The vertical position of the 14.5°C isotherm, an indicator of the main thermocline and nutricline, varied across the entire water column at semidiurnal to seasonal frequencies. We use a novel means of quantifying estimated water column NO₃^-exposure integrated through time (mol-days m^-2) adapted from degree days approaches commonly used to characterize thermal exposures. Water column integrated NO₃^-exposure binned by quarters of the time series showed strong seasonal differences with highest exposure in Mar - May 2015, lowest exposure in Sep - Dec 2014, with consistently highest exposure off Point Loma. The water column integrated NO₃^-signal was filtered to provide estimates of the contribution to total nitrate exposure from high frequency variability (ƒ >= 1 cycle 30 hr^-1) associated predominantly with internal waves, and low frequency variability driven predominantly by seasonal upwelling. While seasonal upwelling accounted for > 90% of NO₃^-exposure across the full year, during warm periods when seasonal upwelling was reduced or absent and NO₃^-exposure was low overall, the proportion due to internal waves increased markedly to 84 to 100% of the site-specific total exposure. The high frequency variability associated with internal waves may supply critical nutrient availability during anomalously warm periods. Overall, these analyses support a hypothesis that differences in NO₃^-exposure among sites due to seasonal upwelling and higher frequency internal wave forcing contribute to spatial patterns in Giant Kelp persistence in southern California. The study period includes anomalously warm surface conditions and the marine heatwave associated with the “Pacific Warm Blob” superimposed on the seasonal thermal signal and corresponding to the onset of a multi-year decline in kelp canopy area and marked differences in kelp persistence among sites. Our analysis suggests that, particularly during periods of warm surface conditions, variation in NO₃^-exposure associated with processes occurring at higher frequencies, including internal waves can be a significant source of NO₃^-exposure to kelp beds in this region. The patterns described here also offer a view of the potential roles of seasonal and higher frequency nutrient dynamics for Giant Kelp persistence in southern California under continuing ocean surface warming and increasing frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves.

    

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4. Modeling and Quantifying Parameter Uncertainty of Co‐Seismic Non‐Classical Nonlinearity in Rocks

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JB027149  

   Niu, Zihua ; Gabriel, Alice‐Agnes ; Seelinger, Linus ; Igel, Heiner ( January 2024 , Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth)

   Dynamic perturbations reveal unconventional nonlinear behavior in rocks, as evidenced by field and laboratory studies. During the passage of seismic waves, rocks exhibit a decrease in elastic moduli, slowly recovering after. Yet, comprehensive physical models describing these moduli alterations remain sparse and insufficiently validated against observations. Here, we demonstrate the applicability of two physical damage models—the internal variable model (IVM) and the continuum damage model (CDM)—to provide quantitative descriptions of nonlinear co‐seismic elastic wave propagation observations. While the IVM uses one internal variable to describe the evolution of elastic material moduli, the CDM damage variable is a mathematical representation of microscopic defects. We recast the IVM and CDM models as nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equations and implement 1D and 2D numerical simulations using an arbitrary high‐order discontinuous Galerkin method. We verify the modeling results with co‐propagating acousto‐elastic experimental measurements. Subsequently, we infer the parameters for these nonlinear models from laboratory experiments using probabilistic Bayesian inversion and 2D simulations. By adopting the Adaptive Metropolis Markov chain Monte Carlo method, we quantify the uncertainties of inferred parameters for both physical models, investigating their interplay in 70,000 simulations. We find that the damage variables can trade off with the stress‐strain nonlinearity in discernible ways. We discuss physical interpretations of both damage models and that our CDM quantitatively captures an observed damage increase with perturbation frequency. Our results contribute to a more holistic understanding of co‐seismic damage and post‐seismic recovery after earthquakes bridging the worlds of theoretical analysis and laboratory findings.

    

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5. Wind work at the air-sea interface: a modeling study in anticipation of future space missions

   https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-8041-2022  

   Torres, Hector S. ; Klein, Patrice ; Wang, Jinbo ; Wineteer, Alexander ; Qiu, Bo ; Thompson, Andrew F. ; Renault, Lionel ; Rodriguez, Ernesto ; Menemenlis, Dimitris ; Molod, Andrea ; et al ( January 2022 , Geoscientific Model Development)

   Abstract. Wind work at the air-sea interface is the transfer of kinetic energy between the ocean and the atmosphere and, as such, is an important part of the ocean-atmosphere coupled system. Wind work is defined as the scalar product of ocean wind stress and surface current, with each of these two variables spanning, in this study, a broad range of spatial and temporal scales, from 10 km to more than 3000 km and hours to months. These characteristics emphasize wind work's multiscale nature. In the absence of appropriate global observations, our study makes use of a new global, coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation, with horizontal grid spacing of 2–5 km for the ocean and 7 km for the atmosphere, analyzed for 12 months.We develop a methodology, both in physical and spectral spaces, to diagnose three different components of wind work that force distinct classes of ocean motions, including high-frequency internal gravity waves, such as near-inertial oscillations, low-frequency currents such as those associated with eddies, and seasonally averaged currents, such as zonal tropical and equatorial jets.The total wind work, integrated globally, has a magnitude close to 5 TW, a value that matches recent estimates. Each of the first two components that force high-frequency and low-frequency currents, accounts for ∼ 28 % of the total wind work and the third one that forces seasonally averaged currents, ∼ 44 %. These three components, when integrated globally, weakly vary with seasons but their spatial distribution over the oceans has strong seasonal and latitudinal variations. In addition, the high-frequency component that forces internal gravity waves, is highly sensitive to the collocation in space and time (at scales of a few hours) of wind stresses and ocean currents. Furthermore, the low-frequency wind work component acts to dampen currents with a size smaller than 250 km and strengthen currents with larger sizes. This emphasizes the need to perform a full kinetic budget involving the wind work and nonlinear advection terms as small and larger-scale low-frequency currents interact through these nonlinear terms.The complex interplay of surface wind stresses and currents revealed by the numerical simulation motivates the need for winds and currents satellite missions to directly observe wind work.

    

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