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Arctic shorelines are vulnerable to climate change impacts as sea level rises, permafrost thaws, storms intensify, and sea ice thins. Seventy-five years of aerial and satellite observations have established coastal erosion as an increasing Arctic hazard. However, other hazards at play—for instance, the cumulative impact that sea-level rise and permafrost thaw subsidence will have on permafrost shorelines—have received less attention, preventing assessments of these processes’ impacts compared to and combined with coastal erosion. Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) is ideal for such assessments because of the high-density observations of topography, coastal retreat rates, and permafrost characteristics, and importance to Indigenous communities and oilfield infrastructure. Here, we produce 21st-century projections of Arctic shoreline position that include erosion, permafrost subsidence, and sea-level rise. Focusing on the ACP, we merge 5 m topography, satellite-derived coastal lake depth estimates, and empirical assessments of land subsidence due to permafrost thaw with projections of coastal erosion and sea-level rise for medium and high emissions scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s AR6 Report. We find that by 2100, erosion and inundation will together transform the ACP, leading to 6-8x more land loss than coastal erosion alone and disturbing 8-11x more organic carbon. Without mitigating measures, by 2100, coastal change could damage 40 to 65% of infrastructure in present-day ACP coastal villages and 10 to 20% of oilfield infrastructure. Our findings highlight the risks that compounding climate hazards pose to coastal communities and underscore the need for adaptive planning for Arctic coastlines in the 21st century.
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Transforming permafrost coastal systems: Advancing scientific discovery through international collaboration
In the Alaskan Arctic, permafrost coastal systems are eroding at rates more than double those of the past. Rampant environmental change is putting new pressures on Arctic coastal dynamics, with the loss of landscapes, cultural heritage, infrastructure, and communities. Dr Benjamin Jones (Water and Environmental Research Center, Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks) and Professor Hugues Lantuit (Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany) are working with scientists and stakeholders from across Arctic nations to develop the Permafrost Coastal Systems Network (PerCS-Net), a forum for reinvigorated research, knowledge integration, and management of environmental change at the fringes of the Arctic.
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- PAR ID:
- 10124362
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Research Outreach
- Volume:
- 110
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 10 to 13
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.32907/RO-110-1013
