skip to main content

Title: Bayesian modeling of flood control networks for failure cascade characterization and vulnerability assessment

This paper presents a Bayesian network model to assess the vulnerability of the flood control infrastructure and to simulate failure cascade based on the topological structure of flood control networks along with hydrological information gathered from sensors. Two measures are proposed to characterize the flood control network vulnerability and failure cascade: (a) node failure probability (NFP), which determines the failure likelihood of each network component under each scenario of rainfall event, and (b) failure cascade susceptibility, which captures the susceptibility of a network component to failure due to failure of other links. The proposed model was tested in both single watershed and multiple watershed scenarios in Harris County, Texas using historical data from three different flooding events, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The proposed model was able to identify the most vulnerable flood control network segments prone to flooding in the face of extreme rainfall. The framework and results furnish a new tool and insights to help decision‐makers to prioritize infrastructure enhancement investments and actions. The proposed Bayesian network modeling framework also enables simulation of failure cascades in flood control infrastructures, and thus could be used for scenario planning as well as near‐real‐time inundation forecasting to inform emergency response planning and operation, and hence improve the flood resilience of urban areas.

more » « less
Award ID(s):
Author(s) / Creator(s):
 ;  ;  ;  
Publisher / Repository:
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering
Page Range / eLocation ID:
p. 668-684
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. The objective of this paper is to model and characterize the percolation dynamics in road networks during a major fluvial flooding event. First, a road system is modelled as planar graph, then, using the level of co-location interdependency with flood control infrastructure as a proxy to the flood vulnerability of the road networks, it estimated the extent of disruptions each neighborhood road network experienced during a flooding event. Second, percolation mechanism in the road network during the flood is captured by assigning different removal probabilities to nodes in road network according to a Bayesian rule. Finally, temporal changes in road network robustness were obtained for random and weighted-adjusted node-removal scenarios. The proposed method was applied to road flooding in a super neighborhood in Houston during hurricane Harvey. The result shows that, network percolation due to fluvial flooding, which is modelled with the proposed Bayes rule based node-removal scheme, causes the decrease in the road network connectivity at varying rate. 
    more » « less
  2. Abstract

    Green infrastructure (GI) practices improve stormwater quality and reduce urban flooding, but as urban hydrology is highly controlled by its associated gray infrastructure (e.g., stormwater pipe network), GI's watershed‐scale performance depends on its siting within its associated watershed. Although many stormwater practitioners have begun considering GI's spatial configuration within a larger watershed, few approaches allow for flexible scenario exploration, which can untangle GI's interaction with gray infrastructure network and assess its effects on watershed hydrology. To address the gap in integrated gray‐green infrastructure planning, we used an exploratory model to examine gray‐green infrastructure performance using synthetic stormwater networks with varying degrees of flow path meandering, informed by analysis on stormwater networks from the Minneapolis‐St. Paul Metropolitan Area, MN, USA. Superimposed with different coverage and placements of GI (e.g., bioretention cells), these gray‐green stormwater networks are then subjected to different rainfall intensities within Environmental Protection Agency's Storm Water Management Model to simulate their hydrological benefits (e.g., peak flow reduction, flood reduction). Although only limited choices of green and gray infrastructure were explored, the results show that the gray infrastructure's spatial configuration can introduce tradeoffs between increased peak flow and increased flooding, and further interacts with GI coverage and placement to reduce peak flow and flooding at low rainfall intensity. However, as rainfall intensifies, GI ceases to reduce peak flow. For integrated gray‐green infrastructure planning, our results suggest that physical constraints of the stormwater networks and the range of rainfall intensities must be considered when implementing GI.

    more » « less
  3. null (Ed.)
    Flooding during extreme weather events damages critical infrastructure, property, and threatens lives. Hurricane María devastated Puerto Rico (PR) on 20 September 2017. Sixty-four deaths were directly attributable to the flooding. This paper describes the development of a hydrologic model using the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA), capable of simulating flood depth and extent for the Añasco coastal flood plain in Western PR. The purpose of the study was to develop a numerical model to simulate flooding from extreme weather events and to evaluate the impacts on critical infrastructure and communities; Hurricane María is used as a case study. GSSHA was calibrated for Irma, a Category 3 hurricane, which struck the northeastern corner of the island on 7 September 2017, two weeks before Hurricane María. The upper Añasco watershed was calibrated using United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream discharge data. The model was validated using a storm of similar magnitude on 11–13 December 2007. Owing to the damage sustained by PR’s WSR-88D weather radar during Hurricane María, rainfall was estimated in this study using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model. Flooding in the coastal floodplain during Hurricane María was simulated using three methods: (1) Use of observed discharge hydrograph from the upper watershed as an inflow boundary condition for the coastal floodplain area, along with the WRF rainfall in the coastal flood plain; (2) Use of WRF rainfall to simulate runoff in the upper watershed and coastal flood plain; and (3) Similar to approach (2), except the use of bias-corrected WRF rainfall. Flooding results were compared with forty-two values of flood depth obtained during face-to-face interviews with residents of the affected communities. Impacts on critical infrastructure (water, electric, and public schools) were evaluated, assuming any structure exposed to 20 cm or more of flooding would sustain damage. Calibration equations were also used to improve flood depth estimates. Our model included the influence of storm surge, which we found to have a minimal effect on flood depths within the study area. Water infrastructure was more severely impacted by flooding than electrical infrastructure. From these findings, we conclude that the model developed in this study can be used with sufficient accuracy to identify infrastructure affected by future flooding events. 
    more » « less
  4. This paper proposed and tested a multilayer framework for modeling network dynamics of inter-organizational coordination in resilience planning among interdependent infrastructure sectors. Each layer in the network represents one infrastructure sector such as flood control, transportation, and emergency response. Coordination probability was introduced to approximate the inconsistent coordination between organizations, based on which the intra-layer or inter-layer link removal was conducted and inter-organizational coordination efficiency within and across infrastructure sectors was hereby unveiled. To test the proposed framework, a multilayer collaboration network of 35 organizations from five infrastructure sectors in Harris County, Texas, was mapped based on a survey of Hurricane Harvey. The analysis results showed that before Hurricane Harvey, coordination among flood control, transportation, and infrastructure development sectors lacked essential integration to foster robust resilience plans. The proposed framework enables an assessment of coordination efficiency among organizations involving in resilience planning and provides an indicator for urban resilience measurement. 
    more » « less
  5. The Shell Creek Watershed (SCW) is a rural watershed in Nebraska with a history of chronic flooding. Beginning in 2005, a variety of conservation practices have been employed in the watershed. Those practices have since been credited with attenuating flood severity and improving water quality in SCW. This study investigated the impacts of 13 different controlling factors on flooding at SCW by using an artificial neural network (ANN)-based rainfall-runoff model. Additionally, flood frequency analysis and drought severity analysis were conducted. Special emphasis was placed on understanding how flood trends change in light of conservation practices to determine whether any relation exists between the conservation practices and flood peak attenuation, as the strategic conservation plan implemented in the watershed provides a unique opportunity to examine the potential impacts of conservation practices on the watershed. The ANN model developed in this study showed satisfactory discharge–prediction performance, with a Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE) value of 0.57. It was found that no individual controlling variable used in this study was a significantly better predictor of flooding in SCW, and therefore all 13 variables were used as inputs, which resulted in the satisfactory ANN model discharge–prediction performance. Furthermore, it was observed that after conservation planning was implemented in SCW, the magnitude of anomalous peak flows increased, while the magnitude of annual peak flows decreased. However, more comprehensive assessment is necessary to identify the relative impacts of conservation practices on flooding in the basin. 
    more » « less