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1. Bayesian modeling of flood control networks for failure cascade characterization and vulnerability assessment

   https://doi.org/10.1111/mice.12527  

   Dong, Shangjia; Yu, Tianbo; Farahmand, Hamed; Mostafavi, Ali (December 2019, Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering)

   Abstract This paper presents a Bayesian network model to assess the vulnerability of the flood control infrastructure and to simulate failure cascade based on the topological structure of flood control networks along with hydrological information gathered from sensors. Two measures are proposed to characterize the flood control network vulnerability and failure cascade: (a) node failure probability (NFP), which determines the failure likelihood of each network component under each scenario of rainfall event, and (b) failure cascade susceptibility, which captures the susceptibility of a network component to failure due to failure of other links. The proposed model was tested in both single watershed and multiple watershed scenarios in Harris County, Texas using historical data from three different flooding events, including Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The proposed model was able to identify the most vulnerable flood control network segments prone to flooding in the face of extreme rainfall. The framework and results furnish a new tool and insights to help decision‐makers to prioritize infrastructure enhancement investments and actions. The proposed Bayesian network modeling framework also enables simulation of failure cascades in flood control infrastructures, and thus could be used for scenario planning as well as near‐real‐time inundation forecasting to inform emergency response planning and operation, and hence improve the flood resilience of urban areas. 

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2. Anatomy of perturbed traffic networks during urban flooding

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2023.104693  

   Rajput, Akhil Anil; Nayak, Sanjay; Dong, Shangjia; Mostafavi, Ali (October 2023, Sustainable Cities and Society)

   Urban flooding disrupts traffic networks, affecting mobility and disrupting residents’ access. Flooding events are predicted to increase due to climate change; therefore, understanding traffic network’s flood-caused disruption is critical to improving emergency planning and city resilience. This study reveals the anatomy of perturbed traffic networks by leveraging high-resolution traffic network data from a major flood event and advanced high-order network analysis. We evaluate travel times between every pairwise junction in the city and assess higher-order network geometry changes in the network to determine flood impacts. The findings show network-wide persistent increased travel times could last for weeks after the flood water has receded, even after modest flood failure. A modest flooding of 1.3% road segments caused 8% temporal expansion of the entire traffic network. The results also show that distant trips would experience a greater percentage increase in travel time. Also, the extent of the increase in travel time does not decay with distance from inundated areas, suggesting that the spatial reach of flood impacts extends beyond flooded areas. The findings of this study provide an important novel understanding of floods’ impacts on the functioning of traffic networks in terms of travel time and traffic network geometry. 

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3. Modest flooding can trigger catastrophic road network collapse due to compound failure

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00366-0  

   Dong, Shangjia; Gao, Xinyu; Mostafavi, Ali; Gao, Jianxi (February 2022, Communications Earth & Environment)

   Abstract Compound failures occur when urban flooding coincides with traffic congestion, and their impact on network connectivity is poorly understood. Firstly, either three-dimensional road networks or the traffic on the roads has been considered, but not both. Secondly, we lack network science frameworks to consider compound failures in infrastructure networks. Here we present a network-theory-based framework that bridges this gap by considering compound structural, functional, and topological failures. We analyze high-resolution traffic data using network percolation theory to study the response of the transportation network in Harris County, Texas, US to Hurricane Harvey in 2017. We find that 2.2% of flood-induced compound failure may lead to a reduction in the size of the largest cluster where network connectivity exists, the giant component, 17.7%. We conclude that indirect effects, such as changes in traffic patterns, must be accounted for when assessing the impacts of flooding on transportation network connectivity and functioning. 

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4. Recognizing flood exposure inequities across flood frequencies

   https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2023.100371  

   Selsor, Haley; Bledsoe, Brian P.; Lammers, Roderick (June 2023, Anthropocene)

   Urban flooding is a growing threat due to land use and climate change. Vulnerable populations tend to have greater exposure to flooding as a result of historical societal and institutional processes. Most flood vulnerability studies focus on a single large flood, neglecting the impact of small, frequent floods. Therefore, there is a need to investigate inequitable flood exposure across a range of event magnitudes and frequencies. To explore this question, we develop a novel score of inequitable flood risk by defining risk as a function of frequency, exposure, and vulnerability. This analysis combines high-resolution, parcel-scale compounded fluvial and pluvial flood data with census data at the census block group scale. We focus on six census tracts within Athens-Clarke County, Georgia that are highly developed with diverse populations. We define vulnerable populations as non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and households under the poverty level and use dasymetric mapping techniques to calculate the over-representation of these populations in flood zones. Inequitable risks at each census tract (approximately neighborhood scale) were estimated for multiple (e.g., 5-, 10-, 20-, 50-, and 100-year) flood return periods. Results show that the relatively greatest flood risk inequities occur for the 10-year flood and not at the largest event. We also found that the size of inequity is dynamic, depending on the flood magnitude. Therefore, addressing a range of events including smaller, more frequent floods can increase equity and reveal opportunities that may be missed if only one event is considered. 

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5. Delineating urban flooding when incorporating community stormwater knowledge

   https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/adad11  

   Scolio, Madeline; Kremer, Peleg; Smith, Virginia; Amur, Achira; Wadzuk, Bridget; Homet, Kate; Devlin, Eric; Al_Mehedi, Md_Abdullah; Moore, Laura (February 2025, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability)

   Abstract Accurately delineating both pluvial and fluvial flood risk is critical to protecting vulnerable populations in urban environments. Although there are currently models and frameworks to estimate stormwater runoff and predict urban flooding, there are often minimal observations to validate results due to the quick retreat of floodwaters from affected areas. In this research, we compare and contrast different methodologies for capturing flood extent in order to highlight the challenges inherent in current methods for urban flooding delineation. This research focuses on two Philadelphia neighborhoods, Manayunk and Eastwick, that face frequent flooding. Overall, Philadelphia, PA is a city with a large proportion of vulnerable populations and is plagued by flooding, with expectations that flood risk will increase as climate change progresses. An array of data, including remotely sensed satellite imagery after major flooding events, Federal Emergency Management Agency’s Special Flood Hazard Areas, First Street Foundation’s Flood Factor, road closures, National Flood Insurance Program claims, and community surveys, were compared for the study areas. Here we show how stakeholder surveys can illuminate the weight of firsthand and communal knowledge on local understandings of stormwater and flood risk. These surveys highlighted different impacts of flooding, depending on the most persistent flood type, pluvial or fluvial, in each area, not present in large datasets. Given the complexity of flooding, there is no single method to fully encompass the impacts on both human well-being and the environment. Through the co-creation of flood risk knowledge, community members are empowered and play a critical role in fostering resilience in their neighborhoods. Community stormwater knowledge is a powerful tool that can be used as a complement to hydrologic flood delineation techniques to overcome common limitations in urban landscapes. 

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