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Abstract AimCoffee is an important export for many developing countries, with a global annual trade value of $100 billion, but it is threatened by a warming climate. Shade trees may mitigate the effects of climate change through temperature regulation that can aid in coffee growth, slow pest reproduction, and sustain avian insectivore diversity. The impact of shade on bird diversity and microclimate on coffee farms has been studied extensively in the Neotropics, but there is a dearth of research in the Paleotropics. LocationEast Africa. MethodsWe created current and future regional Maxent models for avian insectivores in East Africa using Worldclim temperature data and observations from the Global Biodiversity Information Database. We then adjusted current and future bioclimatic layers based on mean differences in temperature between shade and sun coffee farms and projected the models using these adjusted layers to predict the impact of shade tree removal on climatic suitability for avian insectivores. ResultsExisting Worldclim temperature layers more closely matched temperatures under shade trees than temperatures in the open. Removal of shade trees, through warmer temperatures alone, would result in reduction of avian insectivore species by over 25%, a loss equivalent to 50 years of climate change under the most optimistic emissions scenario. Under the most extreme climate scenario and removal of shade trees, insectivore richness is projected to decline from a mean of 38 to fewer than 8 avian insectivore species. Main conclusionsWe found that shade trees on coffee farms already provide important cooler microclimates for avian insectivores. Future temperatures will become a regionally limiting factor for bird distribution in East Africa, which could negatively impact control of coffee pests, but the effect of climate change can be potentially mediated through planting and maintaining shade trees on coffee farms.
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The Community Ecology of Herbivore Regulation in an Agroecosystem: Lessons from Complex Systems
Abstract Whether an ecological community is controlled from above or below remains a popular framework that continues generating interesting research questions and takes on especially important meaning in agroecosystems. We describe the regulation from above of three coffee herbivores, a leaf herbivore (the green coffee scale, Coccus viridis), a seed predator (the coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei), and a plant pathogen (the coffee rust disease, caused by Hemelia vastatrix) by various natural enemies, emphasizing the remarkable complexity involved. We emphasize the intersection of this classical question of ecology with the burgeoning field of complex systems, including references to chaos, critical transitions, hysteresis, basin or boundary collision, and spatial self-organization, all aimed at the applied question of pest control in the coffee agroecosystem.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1853261
- PAR ID:
- 10127148
- Author(s) / Creator(s):
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Publisher / Repository:
- Oxford University Press
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- BioScience
- Volume:
- 69
- Issue:
- 12
- ISSN:
- 0006-3568
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 974-996
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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