Sea-level rise, subsidence, and reduced fluvial sediment supply are causing river deltas to drown worldwide, affecting ecosystems and billions of people. Abrupt changes in river course, called avulsions, naturally nourish sinking land with sediment; however, they also create catastrophic flood hazards. Existing observations and models conflict on whether the occurrence of avulsions will change due to relative sea-level rise, hampering the ability to forecast delta response to global climate change. Here, we combined theory, numerical modeling, and field observations to develop a mechanistic framework to predict avulsion frequency on deltas with multiple self-formed lobes that scale with backwater hydrodynamics. Results show that avulsion frequency is controlled by the competition between relative sea-level rise and sediment supply that drives lobe progradation. We find that most large deltas are experiencing sufficiently low progradation rates such that relative sea-level rise enhances aggradation rates—accelerating avulsion frequency and associated hazards compared to preindustrial conditions. Some deltas may face even greater risk; if relative sea-level rise significantly outpaces sediment supply, then avulsion frequency is maximized, delta plains drown, and avulsion locations shift inland, posing new hazards to upstream communities. Results indicate that managed deltas can support more frequent engineered avulsions to recover sinking land; however, theremore »
- Authors:
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Award ID(s):
- 1637522
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10129731
- Journal Name:
- Science Advances
- Volume:
- 5
- Issue:
- 1
- Page Range or eLocation-ID:
- eaav0486
- ISSN:
- 2375-2548
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
The Pacific Ocean constitutes about half of the global oceans and thus microbial processes in this ocean have a large impact on global elemental cycles. Despite several intensely studied regions large areas are still greatly understudied regarding microbial activities, organic matter cycling and biogeography. Refined information about these features is most important to better understand the significance of this ocean for global biogeochemical and elemental cycles. Therefore we investigated a suite of microbial and geochemical variables along a transect from the subantarctic to the subarctic Pacific in the upper 200 m of the water column. The aim was to quantify rates of organic matter processing, identify potential controlling factors and prokaryotic key players. The assessed variables included abundance of heterotrophic prokaryotes and cyanobacteria, heterotrophic prokaryotic production (HPP), turnover rate constants of amino acids, glucose, and acetate, leucine aminopeptidase and β-glucosidase activities, and the composition of the bacterial community by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH). The additional quantification of nitrate, dissolved amino acids and carbohydrates, chlorophyll a , particulate organic carbon and nitrogen (POC, PON) provided a rich environmental context. The oligotrophic gyres exhibited the lowest prokaryotic abundances, rates of HPP and substrate turnover. Low nucleic acid prokaryotes dominated in thesemore »
-
Abstract Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with themore »
-
Carbon cycle perturbations in high-latitude ecosystems associated with rapid warming can have implications for the global climate. Belowground biomass is an important component of the carbon cycle in these ecosystems, with, on average, significantly more vegetation biomass belowground than aboveground. Large quantities of dead root biomass are also in these ecosystems owing to slow decomposition rates. Current understanding of how live and dead root biomass carbon pools vary across highlatitude ecosystems and the environmental conditions associated with this variation is limited due to the labor- and time-intensive nature of data collection. To that end, we examined patterns and factors (abiotic and biotic) associated with the variation in live and dead fine root biomass (FRB) and FRB carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus concentrations for 23 sites across a latitudinal gradient in Alaska, spanning both boreal forest and tundra biomes. We found no difference in the live or dead FRB variables between these biomes, despite large differences in predominant vegetation types, except for significantly higher live FRB C:N ratios in boreal sites. Soil C:N ratio, moisture, and temperature, along with moss cover, explained a substantial portion of the dead:live FRB ratio variability across sites. We find all these factors have negativemore »
-
Abstract. Temperature is a master parameter in the marine carbon cycle, exerting a critical control on the rate of biological transformation of a variety of solid and dissolved reactants and substrates. Although in the construction of numerical models of marine carbon cycling, temperature has been long recognised as a key parameter in the production and export of organic matter at the ocean surface, its role in the ocean interior is much less frequently accounted for. There, bacteria (primarily) transform sinking particulate organic matter (POM) into its dissolved constituents and consume dissolved oxygen (and/or other electron acceptors such as sulfate). The nutrients and carbon thereby released then become available for transport back to the surface, influencing biological productivity and atmospheric pCO2, respectively. Given the substantial changes in ocean temperature occurring in the past, as well as in light of current anthropogenic warming, appropriately accounting for the role of temperature in marine carbon cycling may be critical to correctly projecting changes in ocean deoxygenation and the strength of feedbacks on atmosphericpCO2. Here we extend and calibrate a temperature-dependent representation ofmarine carbon cycling in the cGENIE.muffin Earth system model, intended forboth past and future climate applications. In this, we combine atemperature-dependent remineralisation schememore »