skip to main content


Title: Orbital forcing of the Paleocene and Eocene carbon cycle: ORBITAL FORCING PALEOCENE-EOCENE C CYCLE
Award ID(s):
1658023
NSF-PAR ID:
10133082
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
Paleoceanography
Volume:
32
Issue:
5
ISSN:
0883-8305
Page Range / eLocation ID:
440 to 465
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. null (Ed.)
    Abstract. Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help tocontextualise future climate change and are required to estimate thesensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history.Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene(∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range(∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) andprevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extremegreenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, weemploy a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during thethree DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the earlyEocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six differentmethodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence)during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimatesfrom the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer thanpre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5thAssessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial).Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates,we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM,and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivitybetween the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk”equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latestPaleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C),3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generallysimilar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doublingCO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (<1.5 perdoubling CO2). 
    more » « less
  2. Astronomical calculations reveal the Solar System’s dynamical evolution, including its chaoticity, and represent the backbone of cyclostratigraphy and astrochronology. An absolute, fully calibrated astronomical time scale has hitherto been hampered beyond ~50 million years before the present (Ma) because orbital calculations disagree before that age. Here, we present geologic data and a new astronomical solution (ZB18a) showing exceptional agreement from ~58 to 53 Ma. We provide a new absolute astrochronology up to 58 Ma and a new Paleocene–Eocene boundary age (56.01 ± 0.05 Ma). We show that the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) onset occurred near a 405-thousand-year (kyr) eccentricity maximum, suggesting an orbital trigger. We also provide an independent PETM duration (170 ± 30 kyr) from onset to recovery inflection. Our astronomical solution requires a chaotic resonance transition at ~50 Ma in the Solar System’s fundamental frequencies. 
    more » « less