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1. Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene

   https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1953-2020  

   Inglis, Gordon N.; Bragg, Fran; Burls, Natalie J.; Cramwinckel, Margot J.; Evans, David; Foster, Gavin L.; Huber, Matthew; Lunt, Daniel J.; Siler, Nicholas; Steinig, Sebastian; et al (January 2020, Climate of the Past)

   null (Ed.)

   Abstract. Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help tocontextualise future climate change and are required to estimate thesensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history.Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene(∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range(∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) andprevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extremegreenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, weemploy a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during thethree DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the earlyEocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six differentmethodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence)during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimatesfrom the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer thanpre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5thAssessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial).Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates,we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM,and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivitybetween the early Paleogene and today. We demonstrate that “bulk”equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latestPaleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C),3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generallysimilar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doublingCO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (<1.5 perdoubling CO2). 

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2. Widespread and intense wildfires at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary

   https://doi.org/10.7185/geochemlet.1906  

   Fung, M.K.; Schaller, M.F.; Hoff, C.M.; Katz, M.E.; Wright, J.D. (March 2019, Geochemical Perspectives Letters)
3. Response of Coastal California Hydroclimate to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

   https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2023-89  

   Zhang, Xiaodong; Tipple, Brett J; Zhu, Jiang; Rush, William D; Shields, Christian A; Novak, Joseph B; Zachos, James C (November 2023, European Geosciences Union)

   Abstract. The effects of anthropogenic warming on the hydroclimate of California are becoming more pronounced, with increased frequency of multi-year droughts and flooding. As a past analog for the future, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a unique natural experiment for assessing global and regional hydroclimate sensitivity to greenhouse gas warming. Globally, extensive evidence (i.e., observations, climate models with high pCO2) demonstrates hydrological intensification with significant variability from region to region (i.e., dryer or wetter, or greater frequency and/or intensity of extreme events). Central California (paleolatitude ~42° N), roughly at the boundary between dry subtropical highs and mid-latitude low pressure systems, would have been particularly susceptible to shifts in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns/intensity. Here, we present new observations and climate model output on regional/local hydroclimate responses in central California during PETM. Our findings based on multi-proxy evidence within the context of model output suggest a transition to an overall drier climate punctuated by increased precipitation during summer months along the central coastal California during the PETM. 

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4. Archaeal lipid biomarker constraints on the Paleocene-Eocene carbon isotope excursion

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-12553-3  

   Elling, Felix J.; Gottschalk, Julia; Doeana, Katiana D.; Kusch, Stephanie; Hurley, Sarah J.; Pearson, Ann (October 2019, Nature Communications)

   Abstract A negative carbon isotope excursion recorded in terrestrial and marine archives reflects massive carbon emissions into the exogenic carbon reservoir during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Yet, discrepancies in carbon isotope excursion estimates from different sample types lead to substantial uncertainties in the source, scale, and timing of carbon emissions. Here we show that membrane lipids of marine planktonic archaea reliably record both the carbon isotope excursion and surface ocean warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Novel records of the isotopic composition of crenarchaeol constrain the global carbon isotope excursion magnitude to −4.0 ± 0.4‰, consistent with emission of >3000 Pg C from methane hydrate dissociation or >4400 Pg C for scenarios involving emissions from geothermal heating or oxidation of sedimentary organic matter. A pre-onset excursion in the isotopic composition of crenarchaeol and ocean temperature highlights the susceptibility of the late Paleocene carbon cycle to perturbations and suggests that climate instability preceded the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. 

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5. Response of coastal California hydroclimate to the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

   https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-1615-2024  

   Zhang, Xiaodong; Tipple, Brett J; Zhu, Jiang; Rush, William D; Shields, Christian A; Novak, Joseph B; Zachos, James C (January 2024, Climate of the Past)

   Abstract. The effects of anthropogenic warming on the hydroclimate of California are becoming more pronounced with the increased frequency of multi-year droughts and flooding. As a past analog for the future, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is a unique natural experiment for assessing global and regional hydroclimate sensitivity to greenhouse gas warming. Globally, extensive evidence (i.e., observations and climate models with high pCO2) demonstrates hydrological intensification with significant variability from region to region (i.e., drier or wetter, greater frequency, and/or intensity of extreme events). Central California (paleolatitude ∼ 42° N), roughly at the boundary between dry subtropical highs and mid-latitude low-pressure systems, would have been particularly susceptible to shifts in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns/intensity. Here, we present new observations and climate model output on regional/local hydroclimate responses in central California during the PETM. Our findings, based on multi-proxy evidence within the context of model outputs, suggest a transition to an overall drier climate punctuated by increased precipitation during summer months along central coastal California during the PETM. 

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