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1. Quantifying the State Dependency of Climate Sensitivity Across Cenozoic Warm Intervals

   https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-13307  

   Albright, Mary Grace; Weitzel, Nils; Inglis, Gordon N; Steinig, Sebastian; Renoult, Martin; Reichgelt, Tammo; Fletcher, Tamara; Tindall, Julia; Feng, Ran (April 2024, Copernicus)

   Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) quantifies the amount of warming resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 forcing. Despite recent advancements in climate simulation capabilities and global observations, there remains large uncertainty on the degree of future warming. To help alleviate this uncertainty, past climates provide a valuable insight into how the Earth will respond to elevated atmospheric CO2. However, there is evidence to suggest that ECS is dependent on background climate warmth, which may interfere with the direct utilization of paleo-ECS to understand present-day ECS. Thus, it is important that a range of different climate states are considered to better understand the factors modulating the relationship between CO2 and temperature. In this study, we focus on three time intervals: the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.3 – 3.0 Ma), the mid-Miocene (16.75 – 14.5 Ma), and the early Eocene (~50 Ma), in order to sample ECS from Cenozoic coolhouse to hothouse climates. Here, we combine the Bayesian framework of constraining the ECS and its uncertainty with several published methods to estimate the global mean surface temperature (GMST) from sparse proxy records. This framework utilizes an emergent constraint between the simulated GMST changes and climate sensitivities across the model ensemble. For each time interval, we employ a combination of parametric and non-parametric functions, coupled with a probabilistic approach to derive a refined estimate. Preliminary results for the Pliocene indicate a GMST reconstruction of approximately 19.3°C, which is higher than previous estimates that were derived using only marine records. Using this estimate, we calculate an ECS that is also higher than previously published values, especially due to the inclusion of high-latitude terrestrial temperature records into our estimates. Intriguingly, using the consistent methodology, our calculated ECS for the early Eocene is lower than that of the mid-Pliocene. This result does not support an amplified ECS in hothouse climate, and points to a potentially important role of ice albedo feedback in amplifying the ECS in coolhouse climate. Ongoing work will apply the same methodology to the mid-Miocene and further investigate the source for the estimated ECS state dependency between these climate intervals. 

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2. Shelf Ecosystems Along the U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain Prior to and During the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum: Insights Into the Stratigraphic Architecture

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022PA004475  

   Doubrawa, Monika; Stassen, Peter; Robinson, Marci M.; Babila, Tali L.; Zachos, James C.; Speijer, Robert P. (October 2022, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology)

   Abstract The Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is the most pronounced global warming event of the early Paleogene related to atmospheric CO₂increases. It is characterized by negative δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C excursions recorded in sedimentary archives and a transient disruption of the marine biosphere. Sites from the U.S. Atlantic Coastal Plain show an additional small, but distinct δ¹³C excursion below the onset of the PETM, coined the “pre‐onset excursion” (POE), mimicking the PETM‐forced environmental perturbations. This study focuses on the South Dover Bridge core in Maryland, where the Paleocene‐Eocene transition is stratigraphically constrained by calcareous nannoplankton and stable isotope data, and in which the POE is well‐expressed. The site was situated in a middle neritic marine shelf setting near a major outflow of the paleo‐Potomac River system. We generated high‐resolution benthic foraminiferal assemblage, stable isotope, trace‐metal, grain‐size and clay mineralogy data. The resulting stratigraphic subdivision of this Paleocene‐Eocene transition is placed within a depth transect across the paleoshelf, highlighting that the PETM sequence is relatively expanded. The geochemical records provide detailed insights into the paleoenvironment, developing from a well‐oxygenated water column in latest Paleocene to a PETM‐ecosystem under severe biotic stress‐conditions, with shifts in food supply and temperature, and under dysoxic bottom waters in a more river‐dominated setting. Environmental changes started in the latest Paleocene and culminated atthe onset of the PETM, hinting to an intensifying trigger rather than to an instantaneous event at the Paleocene‐Eocene boundary toppling the global system. 

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3. Long- and short-term coupling of sea surface temperature and atmospheric CO ₂ during the late Paleocene and early Eocene

   https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2318779121  

   Harper, Dustin T; Hönisch, Bärbel; Bowen, Gabriel J; Zeebe, Richard E; Haynes, Laura L; Penman, Donald E; Zachos, James C (September 2024, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences)

   The late Paleocene and early Eocene (LPEE) are characterized by long-term (million years, Myr) global warming and by transient, abrupt (kiloyears, kyr) warming events, termed hyperthermals. Although both have been attributed to greenhouse (CO₂) forcing, the longer-term trend in climate was likely influenced by additional forcing factors (i.e., tectonics) and the extent to which warming was driven by atmospheric CO₂remains unclear. Here, we use a suite of new and existing observations from planktic foraminifera collected at Pacific Ocean Drilling Program Sites 1209 and 1210 and inversion of a multiproxy Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric CO₂over a 6-Myr interval. Our reconstructions span the initiation of long-term LPEE warming (~58 Ma), and the two largest Paleogene hyperthermals, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ~56 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM-2, ~54 Ma). Our results show strong coupling between CO₂and temperature over the long- (LPEE) and short-term (PETM and ETM-2) but differing Pacific climate sensitivities over the two timescales. Combined CO₂and carbon isotope trends imply the carbon source driving CO₂increase was likely methanogenic, organic, or mixed for the PETM and organic for ETM-2, whereas a source with higher δ¹³C values (e.g., volcanic degassing) is associated with the long-term LPEE. Reconstructed emissions for the PETM (5,800 Gt C) and ETM-2 (3,800 Gt C) are comparable in mass to future emission scenarios, reinforcing the value of these events as analogs of anthropogenic change. 

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4. Millennial-timescale thermogenic CO2 release preceding the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-60939-3  

   Jiang, Shijun; Cui, Ying; Wang, Yasu; De_Palma, Maurizia; Naafs, B_David_A; Jiang, Jingxin; Hu, Xiumian; Wu, Huaichun; Chu, Runjian; Gu, Yangguang; et al (June 2025, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Geologic records support a short-lived carbon release, known as the pre-onset excursion (POE), shortly before the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; ~ 56 Ma). However, the source and pace of the POE carbon release and its relationship to the PETM remain unresolved. Here we show a high-temporal-resolution stratigraphic record spanning the POE and PETM from the eastern Tethys Ocean that documents the evolution of surface ocean carbon cycle, redox and eutrophication, confirming the global nature of the POE. Biomarkers extracted from the sedimentary record indicate a smaller environmental perturbation during the POE than that during the PETM in the eastern Tethys Ocean. Earth system modeling constrained by observed δ¹³C and pH data indicates that the POE was driven by a largely thermogenic CO₂source, likely associated with sill intrusions prior to the main eruption phase of the North Atlantic Igneous Province and possibly biogeochemical feedbacks involving the release of biogenic methane. 

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5. Solar System chaos and the Paleocene–Eocene boundary age constrained by geology and astronomy

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax0612  

   Zeebe, Richard E.; Lourens, Lucas J. (August 2019, Science)

   Astronomical calculations reveal the Solar System’s dynamical evolution, including its chaoticity, and represent the backbone of cyclostratigraphy and astrochronology. An absolute, fully calibrated astronomical time scale has hitherto been hampered beyond ~50 million years before the present (Ma) because orbital calculations disagree before that age. Here, we present geologic data and a new astronomical solution (ZB18a) showing exceptional agreement from ~58 to 53 Ma. We provide a new absolute astrochronology up to 58 Ma and a new Paleocene–Eocene boundary age (56.01 ± 0.05 Ma). We show that the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) onset occurred near a 405-thousand-year (kyr) eccentricity maximum, suggesting an orbital trigger. We also provide an independent PETM duration (170 ± 30 kyr) from onset to recovery inflection. Our astronomical solution requires a chaotic resonance transition at ~50 Ma in the Solar System’s fundamental frequencies. 

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