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Title: Global mean surface temperature and climate sensitivity of the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO), Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and latest Paleocene
Abstract. Accurate estimates of past global mean surface temperature (GMST) help tocontextualise future climate change and are required to estimate thesensitivity of the climate system to CO2 forcing through Earth's history.Previous GMST estimates for the latest Paleocene and early Eocene(∼57 to 48 million years ago) span a wide range(∼9 to 23 ∘C higher than pre-industrial) andprevent an accurate assessment of climate sensitivity during this extremegreenhouse climate interval. Using the most recent data compilations, weemploy a multi-method experimental framework to calculate GMST during thethree DeepMIP target intervals: (1) the latest Paleocene (∼57 Ma), (2) the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma), and (3) the earlyEocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; 53.3 to 49.1 Ma). Using six differentmethodologies, we find that the average GMST estimate (66 % confidence)during the latest Paleocene, PETM, and EECO was 26.3 ∘C (22.3 to28.3 ∘C), 31.6 ∘C (27.2 to 34.5 ∘C), and27.0 ∘C (23.2 to 29.7 ∘C), respectively. GMST estimatesfrom the EECO are ∼10 to 16 ∘C warmer thanpre-industrial, higher than the estimate given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5thAssessment Report (9 to 14 ∘C higher than pre-industrial).Leveraging the large “signal” associated with these extreme warm climates,we combine estimates of GMST and CO2 from the latest Paleocene, PETM,and EECO to calculate gross estimates of the average climate sensitivitybetween the early Paleogene more » and today. We demonstrate that “bulk”equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS; 66 % confidence) during the latestPaleocene, PETM, and EECO is 4.5 ∘C (2.4 to 6.8 ∘C),3.6 ∘C (2.3 to 4.7 ∘C), and 3.1 ∘C (1.8 to4.4 ∘C) per doubling of CO2. These values are generallysimilar to those assessed by the IPCC (1.5 to 4.5 ∘C per doublingCO2) but appear incompatible with low ECS values (<1.5 perdoubling CO2). « less
Authors:
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Award ID(s):
1842059 1844380
Publication Date:
NSF-PAR ID:
10228618
Journal Name:
Climate of the Past
Volume:
16
Issue:
5
Page Range or eLocation-ID:
1953 to 1968
ISSN:
1814-9332
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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