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Abstract As part of the analysis following the Seeded and Natural Orographic Wintertime Storms (SNOWIE) project, the ice water content (IWC) in ice and mixed-phase clouds is retrieved from airborne Wyoming Cloud Radar (WCR) measurements aboard the University of Wyoming King Air (UWKA), which has a suite of integrated in situ IWC, optical array probes, and remote sensing measurements, and it provides a unique dataset for this algorithm development and evaluation. A sensitivity study with different idealized ice particle habits shows that the retrieved IWC with aggregate ice particle habit agrees the best with the in situ measurement, especially in ice or ice-dominated mixed-phase clouds with a correlation coefficient (rr) of 0.91 and a bias of close to 0. For mixed-phase clouds with ice fraction ratio less than 0.8, the variances of IWC estimates increase (rr = 0.76) and the retrieved mean IWC is larger than in situ IWC by a factor of 2. This is found to be related to the uncertainty of in situ measurements, the large cloud inhomogeneity, and the retrieval assumption uncertainty. The simulated reflectivity Ze and IWC relationships assuming three idealized ice particle habits and measured particle size distributions show that hexagonal columns with the same Ze have a lower IWC than aggregates, whose Ze–IWC relation is more consistent with the observed WCR Ze and in situ IWC relation in those clouds. The 2D stereo probe (2DS) images also indicate that ice particle habit transition occurs in orographic mixed-phase clouds; hence, the retrieved IWC assuming modified gamma particle size distribution (PSD) of aggregate particles tends to have a greater bias in this kind of clouds.
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Reduction of Bias from Parameter Variance in Geophysical Data Estimation: Method and Application to Ice Water Content and Sedimentation Flux Estimated from Lidar
This paper addresses issues of statistical misrepresentation of the a priori parameters (henceforth called ancillary parameters) used in geophysical data estimation. Parameterizations using ancillary data are frequently needed to derive geophysical data of interest from remote measurements. Empirical fits to the ancillary data that do not preserve the distribution of such data may induce substantial bias. A semianalytical averaging approach based on Taylor expansion is presented to improve estimated cirrus ice water content and sedimentation flux for a range of volume extinction coefficients retrieved from spaceborne lidar observations by CALIOP combined with the estimated distribution of ancillary data from in situ aircraft measurements of ice particle microphysical parameters and temperature. It is shown that, given an idealized distribution of input parameters, the approach performs well against Monte Carlo benchmark predictions. Using examples with idealized distributions at the mean temperature for the tropics at 15 km, it is estimated that the commonly neglected variance observed in in situ measurements of effective diameters may produce a worst-case estimation bias spanning up to a factor of 2. For ice sedimentation flux, a similar variance in particle size distributions and extinctions produces a worst-case estimation bias of a factor of 9. The value of the bias is found to be mostly set by the correlation coefficient between extinction and ice effective diameter, which in this test ranged between all possible values. Systematic reporting of variances and covariances in the ancillary data and between data and observed quantities would allow for more accurate observational estimates.
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- PAR ID:
- 10134944
- Publisher / Repository:
- American Meteorological Society
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
- Volume:
- 77
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 0022-4928
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- p. 835-857
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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