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1. Megapluvials in Southwestern North America

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001508  

   Cook, Benjamin I; Williams, A Park; Smerdon, Jason E; Marvel, Kate; Seager, Richard (April 2025, AGU Advances)

   Abstract Droughts over the last century in Southwestern North America (SWNA) have had severe consequences for people and ecosystems across the region, most recently during the early 21st‐century megadrought (2000–2022). The 20^thcentury, however, was bracketed by two extended pluvials that also had significant impacts in the region. We use a 1,224 years (800–2023 CE) record of observed and reconstructed soil moisture, in concert with a paleoclimate reanalysis product, to place the 20th‐century pluvials in a longer‐term context and investigate the occurrence and dynamics of similar events in the Common Era. Analyses of the soil moisture reconstruction demonstrate that pluvials and megapluvials are as ubiquitous as droughts and megadroughts over the last millennium. The early (19 years; 1905–1923) and late (22 years; 1978–1999) 20th‐century pluvials rank as the second and first wettest in the record, respectively, positioning these as events on par with the most extreme megadroughts. Pluvials show a strong association with tropical Pacific (warm) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the 20^thcentury and over the prior millennium, though the role of the tropical Atlantic is much more uncertain and ambiguous. Using a Bayesian hierarchical modeling approach trained on the pre‐industrial period (800–1849 CE), we find that the record setting late 20^th‐century megapluvial likely occurred as a consequence of anomalously strong Pacific sea surface temperature forcing. This work establishes pluvial and megapluvial events as intrinsic components of Common Era hydroclimate variability in SWNA, comparable in importance to droughts and megadroughts. 

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2. Signature of the Contemporary Southwestern North American Megadrought in Mesopause Region Wave Activity

   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100569  

   Gardner, Chester S.; She, Chiao‐Yao (October 2022, Geophysical Research Letters)

   Abstract The Southwestern North American megadrought began in 2000 and is now believed to be the driest 22‐year period in the region since 800 CE. The precipitation deficit during the megadrought (8.3% during 2000–2021) has been accompanied by a significant decrease in gravity waves observed in the upper atmosphere. Prior to the drought (1990–2000), the mean wave‐driven temperature fluctuation variances, between 85 and 100 km at Albuquerque and Ft. Collins, were comparable (62.2 ± 5.3 K²and 60.5 ± 1.8 K², respectively), with the largest variances occurring during winter and summer storm seasons. During the first decade of the drought (2001–2010), wave activity above Ft. Collins decreased by 28 ± 3%, mostly above 94 km, and changed from primarily semiannual to primarily annual variations. These changes may be related to reduced wave generation by tropospheric storms during the megadrought and to an altered geographic distribution of precipitation events in the western and mid‐western United States. 

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3. Forest Management Under Megadrought: Urgent Needs at Finer Scale and Higher Intensity

   https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2020.502669  

   Field, Jason P.; Breshears, David D.; Bradford, John B.; Law, Darin J.; Feng, Xiao; Allen, Craig D. (December 2020, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change)

   null (Ed.)

   Drought and warming increasingly are causing widespread tree die-offs and extreme wildfires. Forest managers are struggling to improve anticipatory forest management practices given more frequent, extensive, and severe wildfire and tree die-off events triggered by “hotter drought”—drought under warmer than historical conditions. Of even greater concern is the increasing probability of multi-year droughts, or “megadroughts”—persistent droughts that span years to decades, and that under a still-warming climate, will also be hotter than historical norms. Megadroughts under warmer temperatures are disconcerting because of their potential to trigger more severe forest die-off, fire cycles, pathogens, and insect outbreaks. In this Perspective, we identify potential anticipatory and/or concurrent options for non-timber forest management actions under megadrought, which by necessity are focused more at finer spatial scales such as the stand level using higher-intensity management. These management actions build on silvicultural practices focused on growth and yield (but not harvest). Current management options that can be focused at finer scales include key silvicultural practices: selective thinning; use of carefully selected forward-thinking seed mixes; site contouring; vegetation and pest management; soil erosion control; and fire management. For the extreme challenges posed by megadroughts, management will necessarily focus even more on finer-scale, higher-intensity actions for priority locations such as fostering stand refugia; assisted stand recovery via soil amendments; enhanced root development; deep soil water retention; and shallow water impoundments. Drought-induced forest die-off from megadrought likely will lead to fundamental changes in the structure, function, and composition of forest stands and the ecosystem services they provide. 

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4. The North American Monsoon buffers forests against the ongoing megadrought in the Southwestern United States

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16762  

   Strange, Brandon M.; Monson, Russell K.; Szejner, Paul; Ehleringer, Jim; Hu, Jia (June 2023, Global Change Biology)

   Abstract The US Southwest has been entrenched in a two‐decade‐long megadrought (MD), the most severe since 800 CE, which threatens the long‐term vitality and persistence of regional montane forests. Here, we report that in the face of record low winter precipitation and increasing atmospheric aridity, seasonal activity of the North American Monsoon (NAM) climate system brings sufficient precipitation during the height of the summer to alleviate extreme tree water stress. We studied seasonally resolved, tree‐ring stable carbon isotope ratios across a 57‐year time series (1960–2017) in 17 Ponderosa pine forests distributed across the NAM geographic domain. Our study focused on the isotope dynamics of latewood (LW), which is produced in association with NAM rains. During the MD, populations growing within the core region of the NAM operated at lower intrinsic and higher evaporative water‐use efficiencies (WUE_iand WUE_E, respectively), compared to populations growing in the periphery of the NAM domain, indicating less physiological water stress in those populations with access to NAM moisture. The disparities in water‐use efficiencies in periphery populations are due to a higher atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and reduced access to summer soil moisture. The buffering advantage of the NAM, however, is weakening. We observed that since the MD, the relationship between WUE_iand WUE_Ein forests within the core NAM domain is shifting toward a drought response similar to forests on the periphery of the NAM. After correcting for past increases in the atmospheric CO₂concentration, we were able to isolate the LW time‐series responses to climate alone. This showed that the shift in the relation between WUE_iand WUE_Ewas driven by the extreme increases in MD‐associated VPD, with little advantageous influence on stomatal conductance from increases in atmospheric CO₂concentration. 

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5. Stable isotopes of tree rings reveal seasonal-to-decadal patterns during the emergence of a megadrought in the Southwestern US

   https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-021-04916-9  

   Szejner, Paul; Belmecheri, Soumaya; Babst, Flurin; Wright, William E.; Frank, David C.; Hu, Jia; Monson, Russell K. (April 2021, Oecologia)

   null (Ed.)

   Recent evidence has revealed the emergence of a megadrought in southwestern North America since 2000. Megadroughts extend for at least 2 decades, making it challenging to identify such events until they are well established. Here, we examined tree-ring growth and stable isotope ratios in Pinus ponderosa at its driest niche edge to investigate whether trees growing near their aridity limit were sensitive to the megadrought climatic pre-conditions, and were capable of informing predictive efforts. During the decade before the megadrought, trees in four populations revealed increases in the cellulose δ13C content of earlywood, latewood, and false latewood, which, based on past studies are correlated with increased intrinsic water-use efficiency. However, radial growth and cellulose δ18O were not sensitive to pre-megadrought conditions. During the 2 decades preceding the megadrought, at all four sites, the changes in δ13C were caused by the high sensitivity of needle carbon and water exchange to drought trends in key winter months, and for three of the four sites during crucial summer months. Such pre-megadrought physiological sensitivity appears to be unique for trees near their arid range limit, as similar patterns were not observed in trees in ten reference sites located along a latitudinal gradient in the same megadrought domain, despite similar drying trends. Our results reveal the utility of tree-ring δ13C to reconstruct spatiotemporal patterns during the organizational phase of a megadrought, demonstrating that trees near the arid boundaries of a species’ distribution might be useful in the early detection of long-lasting droughts. 

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