Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (
Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2removal than BECCS.
- Authors:
- ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; more »
- Award ID(s):
- 1632810
- Publication Date:
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10153459
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Volume:
- 9
- Issue:
- 1
- ISSN:
- 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
Abstract Panicum virgatum L.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO2concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming currentmore » -
Abstract This study seeks to understand how Argentina's energy, water, and land (EWL) systems will co‐evolve under a representative array of human and earth system influences, including socioeconomic change, climate change, and climate policy. To capture Argentina's sub‐national EWL dynamics in the context of global change, we couple the Global Change Analysis Model with a suite of consistent, gridded sectoral downscaling models to explore multiple stakeholder‐engaged scenarios. Across scenarios, Argentina has the economic opportunity to use its vast land resources to satisfy growing domestic and international demand for crops, such as oil (e.g., soy) and biomass. The human (rather than earth) system produces the most dominant changes in mid‐century EWL resource use. A Reference scenario characterized by modest socioeconomic growth projects a 40% increase in Argentina's agricultural production by 2050 (relative to 2020) by using 50,000 km2of additional cropland and 40% more water. A Climate Policy scenario designed to achieve net‐zero carbon emissions globally shortly after mid‐century projects that Argentina could use 100,000 km2of additional land (and 65% more water) to grow biomass and other crops. The burden of navigating these national opportunities and challenges could fall disproportionately on a subset of Argentina's river basins. The Colorado and Negro basins could experiencemore »
-
Abstract Fossil fuel combustion, land use change and other human activities have increased the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) abundance by about 50% since the beginning of the industrial age. The atmospheric CO2growth rates would have been much larger if natural sinks in the land biosphere and ocean had not removed over half of this anthropogenic CO2. As these CO2emissions grew, uptake by the ocean increased in response to increases in atmospheric CO2partial pressure (pCO2). On land, gross primary production also increased, but the dynamics of other key aspects of the land carbon cycle varied regionally. Over the past three decades, CO2uptake by intact tropical humid forests declined, but these changes are offset by increased uptake across mid‐ and high‐latitudes. While there have been substantial improvements in our ability to study the carbon cycle, measurement and modeling gaps still limit our understanding of the processes driving its evolution. Continued ship‐based observations combined with expanded deployments of autonomous platforms are needed to quantify ocean‐atmosphere fluxes and interior ocean carbon storage on policy‐relevant spatial and temporal scales. There is also an urgent need for more comprehensive measurements of stocks, fluxes and atmospheric CO2in humid tropical forests and across the Arctic and boreal regions,more »
-
Abstract Rooting depth is an ecosystem trait that determines the extent of soil development and carbon (C) and water cycling. Recent hypotheses propose that human‐induced changes to Earth's biogeochemical cycles propagate deeply into Earth's subsurface due to rooting depth changes from agricultural and climate‐induced land cover changes. Yet, the lack of a global‐scale quantification of rooting depth responses to human activity limits knowledge of hydrosphere‐atmosphere‐lithosphere feedbacks in the Anthropocene. Here we use land cover data sets to demonstrate that root depth distributions are changing globally as a consequence of agricultural expansion truncating depths above which 99% of root biomass occurs (D99) by ∼60 cm, and woody encroachment linked to anthropogenic climate change extending D99 in other regions by ∼38 cm. The net result of these two opposing drivers is a global reduction of D99 by 5%, or ∼8 cm, representing a loss of ∼11,600 km3of rooted volume. Projected land cover scenarios in 2100 suggest additional future D99 shallowing of up to 30 cm, generating further losses of rooted volume of ∼43,500 km3, values exceeding root losses experienced to date and suggesting that the pace of root shallowing will quicken in the coming century. Losses of Earth's deepest roots—soil‐forming agents—suggest unanticipated changes in fluxes of water, solutes,more »
-
Abstract The flux and composition of carbon (C) from land to rivers represents a critical component of the global C cycle as well as a powerful integrator of landscape‐level processes. In the Congo Basin, an expansive network of streams and rivers transport and cycle terrigenous C sourced from the largest swathe of pristine tropical forest on Earth. Increasing rates of deforestation and conversion to agriculture in the Basin are altering the current regime of terrestrial‐to‐aquatic biogeochemical cycling of C. To investigate the role of deforestation on dissolved organic and inorganic C (DOC and DIC, respectively) biogeochemistry in the Congo Basin, six lowland streams that drain catchments of varying forest proportion (12%–77%) were sampled monthly for 1 year. Annual mean concentrations of DOC exhibited an asymptotic response to forest loss, while DIC concentrations increased continuously with forest loss. The isotopic signature of DIC became significantly more enriched with deforestation, indicating a shift in source and processes controlling DIC production. The composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM), as revealed by ultra‐high‐resolution mass spectrometry, indicated that deforested catchments export relatively more aliphatic and heteroatomic DOM sourced from microbial biomass in soils. The DOM compositional results imply that DOM from the deforested sites is moremore »
