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1. Combining Eddy Covariance Towers, Field Measurements, and the MEMS 2 Ecosystem Model Improves Confidence in the Climate Impacts of Bioenergy With Carbon Capture and Storage

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.70023  

   Falvo, Grant; Zhang, Yao; Abraha, Michael; Mosier, Samantha; Su, Yahn‐Jauh; Lei, Cheyenne; Chen, Jiquan; Cotrufo, M_Francesca; Robertson, G_Philip (February 2025, GCB Bioenergy)

   ABSTRACT Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are required if the effects of climate change are to be reversed over the next century. However, BECCS demands extensive land use change that may create positive or negative radiative forcing impacts upstream of the BECCS facility through changes to in situ greenhouse gas fluxes and land surface albedo. When quantifying these upstream climate impacts, even at a single site, different methods can give different estimates. Here we show how three common methods for estimating the net ecosystem carbon balance of bioenergy crops established on former grassland or former cropland can differ in their central estimates and uncertainty. We place these net ecosystem carbon balance forcings in the context of associated radiative forcings from changes to soil N₂O and CH₄fluxes, land surface albedo, embedded fossil fuel use, and geologically stored carbon. Results from long term eddy covariance measurements, a soil and plant carbon inventory, and the MEMS 2 process‐based ecosystem model all agree that establishing perennials such as switchgrass or mixed prairie on former cropland resulted in net negative radiative forcing (i.e., global cooling) of −26.5 to −39.6 fW m⁻²over 100 years. Establishing these perennials on former grassland sites had similar climate mitigation impacts of −19.3 to −42.5 fW m⁻². However, the largest climate mitigation came from establishing corn for BECCS on former cropland or grassland, with radiative forcings from −38.4 to −50.5 fW m⁻², due to its higher plant productivity and therefore more geologically stored carbon. Our results highlight the strengths and limitations of each method for quantifying the field scale climate impacts of BECCS and show that utilizing multiple methods can increase confidence in the final radiative forcing estimates. 

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2. Land management and climate change determine second‐generation bioenergy potential of the US Northern Great Plains

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12686  

   Dolan, Katelyn A.; Stoy, Paul C.; Poulter, Benjamin (May 2020, GCB Bioenergy)

   Abstract Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) has been proposed as a potential climate mitigation strategy raising concerns over trade‐offs with existing ecosystem services. We evaluate the feasibility of BECCS in the Upper Missouri River Basin (UMRB), a landscape with diverse land use, ownership, and bioenergy potential. We develop land‐use change scenarios and a switchgrass (Panicum virgatumL.) crop functional type to use in a land‐surface model to simulate second‐generation bioenergy production. By the end of this century, average annual switchgrass production over the UMRB ranges from 60 to 210 Tg dry mass/year and is dependent on the Representative Concentration Pathway for greenhouse gas emissions and on land‐use change assumptions. Under our simple phase‐in assumptions this results in a cumulative total production of 2,000–6,000 Tg C over the study period with the upper estimates only possible in the absence of climate change. Switchgrass yields decreased as average CO₂concentrations and temperatures increased, suggesting the effect of elevated atmospheric CO₂was small because of its C4 photosynthetic pathway. By the end of the 21st century, the potential energy stored annually in harvested switchgrass averaged between 1 and 4 EJ/year assuming perfect conversion efficiency, or an annual electrical generation capacity of 7,000–28,000 MW assuming current bioenergy efficiency rates. Trade‐offs between bioenergy and ecosystem services were identified, including cumulative direct losses of 1,000–2,600 Tg C stored in natural ecosystems from land‐use change by 2090. Total cumulative losses of ecosystem carbon stocks were higher than the potential ~300 Tg C in fossil fuel emissions from the single largest power plant in the region over the same time period, and equivalent to potential carbon removal from the atmosphere from using biofuels grown in the same region. Numerous trade‐offs from BECCS expansion in the UMRB must be balanced against the potential benefits of a carbon‐negative energy system. 

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3. Data and code for: Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

   https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.wwpzgmswn  

   Falvo, Grant; Robertson, G Philip (June 2025, Dryad)

   Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the deforestation of an ecoregion of the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m-2), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of the greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture provided a modest -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m-2 of climate mitigation, short/medium length forestry rotations provided more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m-2, and natural forest regeneration provided the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m-2. As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide. 

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4. Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05340-z  

   Harper, Anna B.; Powell, Tom; Cox, Peter M.; House, Joanna; Huntingford, Chris; Lenton, Timothy M.; Sitch, Stephen; Burke, Eleanor; Chadburn, Sarah E.; Collins, William J.; et al (August 2018, Nature Communications)

   Abstract Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO₂) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO₂removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO₂removal than BECCS. 

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5. Biomass yield potential on U.S. marginal land and its contribution to reach net‐zero emission

   https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.13128  

   He, Yufeng; Jaiswal, Deepak; Long, Stephen P.; Liang, Xin‐Zhong; Matthews, Megan L. (January 2024, GCB Bioenergy)

   Abstract Bioenergy with carbon capture and geological storage (BECCS) is considered one of the top options for both offsetting CO₂emissions and removing atmospheric CO₂. BECCS requires using limited land resources efficiently while ensuring minimal adverse impacts on the delicate food‐energy‐water nexus. Perennial C4 biomass crops are productive on marginal land under low‐input conditions avoiding conflict with food and feed crops. The eastern half of the contiguous U.S. contains a large amount of marginal land, which is not economically viable for food production and liable to wind and water erosion under annual cultivation. However, this land is suitable for geological CO₂storage and perennial crop growth. Given the climate variation across the region, three perennials are major contenders for planting. The yield potential and stability of Miscanthus, switchgrass, and energycane across the region were compared to select which would perform best under the recent (2000–2014) and future (2036–2050) climates. Miscanthus performed best in the Midwest, switchgrass in the Northeast and energycane in the Southeast. On average, Miscanthus yield decreased from present 19.1 t/ha to future 16.8 t/ha; switchgrass yield from 3.5 to 2.4 t/ha; and energycane yield increased from 14 to 15 t/ha. Future yield stability decreased in the region with higher predicted drought stress. Combined, these crops could produce 0.6–0.62 billion tonnes biomass per year for the present and future. Using the biomass for power generation with CCS would capture 703–726 million tonnes of atmospheric CO₂per year, which would offset about 11% of current total U.S. emission. Further, this biomass approximates the net primary CO₂productivity of two times the current baseline productivity of existing vegetation, suggesting a huge potential for BECCS. Beyond BECCS, C4 perennial grasses could also increase soil carbon and provide biomass for emerging industries developing replacements for non‐renewable products including plastics and building materials. 

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