skip to main content

Attention:

The NSF Public Access Repository (NSF-PAR) system and access will be unavailable from 11:00 PM ET on Friday, May 17 until 8:00 AM ET on Saturday, May 18 due to maintenance. We apologize for the inconvenience.


Title: A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment considering Wind Power Penetration
A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach for the probabilistic load-margin assessment problem. Using actual wind data, a kernel-density-estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of the traditional Monte-Carlo simulations processing a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate is developed, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Simulation results reveal the impressive performances of the proposed method.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1917308 1711191
NSF-PAR ID:
10157207
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
ISSN:
0885-8950
Page Range / eLocation ID:
1-12
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. The increasing penetration of renewable energy along with the variations of the loads bring large uncertainties in the power system states that are threatening the security of power system planning and operation. Facing these challenges, this paper proposes a cost-effective, nonparametric method to quantity the impact of uncertain power injections on the load margins. First, we propose to generate system uncertain inputs via a novel vine copula due to its capability in simulating complex multivariate highly dependent model inputs. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 57-bus system, to which correlated renewable generation are attached, reveal the excellent performance of the proposed method. 
    more » « less
  2. The increasing penetration of renewable energy along with the variations of the loads bring large uncertainties in the power system states that are threatening the security of power system planning and operation. Facing these challenges, this paper proposes a cost-effective, nonparametric method to quantify the impact of uncertain power injections on the load margins. First, we propose to generate system uncertain inputs via a novel vine copula due to its capability in simulating complex multivariate highly dependent model inputs. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. The simulations conducted on the IEEE 57-bus system, to which correlated renewable generation are attached, reveal the excellent performance of the proposed method. 
    more » « less
  3. In this letter, a novel Gaussian process emulator is proposed, for the first time, to conduct the probabilistic power-flow calculation. Based on Bayesian inference, a Gaussian process emulator is trained and served as a nonparametric, reduced-order model of the nonlinear power-flow model. This emulator allows us to evaluate the time-consuming power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. The simulations reveal the excellent performance of this method. 
    more » « less
  4. The increasing penetration of renewable energy resources in power systems, represented as random processes, converts the traditional deterministic economic dispatch problem into a stochastic one. To solve this stochastic economic dispatch, the conventional Monte Carlo method is prohibitively time con- suming for medium- and large-scale power systems. To overcome this problem, we propose in this paper a novel Gaussian- process-emulator-based approach to quantify the uncertainty in the stochastic economic dispatch considering wind power penetration. Based on the dimension-reduction results obtained by the Karhunen-Loe`ve expansion, a Gaussian-process emulator is constructed. This surrogate allows us to evaluate the economic dispatch solver at sampled values with a negligible computational cost while maintaining a desirable accuracy. Simulation results conducted on the IEEE 118-bus system reveal that the proposed method has an excellent performance as compared to the traditional Monte Carlo method. 
    more » « less
  5. SUMMARY

    The advent of fast sensing technologies allow for real-time model updates in many applications where the model parameters are uncertain. Once the observations are collected, Bayesian algorithms offer a pathway for real-time inversion (a.k.a. model parameters/inputs update) because of the flexibility of the Bayesian framework against non-uniqueness and uncertainties. However, Bayesian algorithms rely on the repeated evaluation of the computational models and deep learning (DL) based proxies can be useful to address this computational bottleneck. In this paper, we study the effects of the approximate nature of the deep learned models and associated model errors during the inversion of borehole electromagnetic (EM) measurements, which are usually obtained from logging while drilling. We rely on the iterative ensemble smoothers as an effective algorithm for real-time inversion due to its parallel nature and relatively low computational cost. The real-time inversion of EM measurements is used to determine the subsurface geology and properties, which are critical for real-time adjustments of the well trajectory (geosteering). The use of deep neural network (DNN) as a forward model allows us to perform thousands of model evaluations within seconds, which is very useful to quantify uncertainties and non-uniqueness in real-time. While significant efforts are usually made to ensure the accuracy of the DL models, it is widely known that the DNNs can contain some type of model-error in the regions not covered by the training data, which are unknown and training specific. When the DL models are utilized during inversion of EM measurements, the effects of the model-errors could manifest themselves as a bias in the estimated input parameters and as a consequence might result in a low-quality geosteering decision. We present numerical results highlighting the challenges associated with the inversion of EM measurements while neglecting model-error. We further demonstrate the utility of a recently proposed flexible iterative ensemble smoother in reducing the effect of model-bias by capturing the unknown model-errors, thus improving the quality of the estimated subsurface properties for geosteering operation. Moreover, we describe a procedure for identifying inversion multimodality and propose possible solutions to alleviate it in real-time.

     
    more » « less