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The phenological timing of leaf out in temperate forests is a critical transition point each year that alters the global climate system, which in turn, feeds back to plants, driving leaf out to occur nearly 3 d earlier per decade as temperatures rise. To improve predictions of leaf out timing, urban heat islands (UHIs) or densely developed areas that are hotter than surrounding undeveloped regions are often used to approximate warming via space-for-time substitutions (i.e., rural-to-urban temperature gradients). However, more than just environment changes along these gradients—urban regions are highly managed systems with limited-to-no within species diversity. We demonstrate here that recent observations that UHI gradients underpredict leaf out response to temperature when compared to temperature gradients through time is likely because both genetics and environment are changing across rural-to-urban gradients, whereas only environment is changing through time. We tested this hypothesis using genomic, phenological, and temperature data of northern red oak (Quercus rubra) over several years between an urban and rural site. Across our gradient, models that included just temperature predicted moderate advancement of leaf out. However, if we account for the genetic diversity of our trees in our model, leaf out phenology is predicted to advance significantly more in response to temperature. We demonstrate that this stronger relationship between phenological timing and climate is because urban trees have reduced genetic diversity as they are planted from limited stock by humans and, moreover, are most closely related to individuals at the rural site that leaf out later on average.
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Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States
Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature ( R T ) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and R T was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas ( P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in R T mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban−rural difference in both SOS and R T was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in R T magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.
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- PAR ID:
- 10162388
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 117
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 4228 to 4233
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911117117
