Cities such as Detroit, MI in the post-industrial Rust Belt region of the United States, have been experiencing a decline in both population and economy since the 1970's. These “shrinking cities” are characterized by aging infrastructure and increasing vacant areas, potentially resulting in more green space. While in growing cities research has demonstrated an “urban heat island” effect resulting from increased temperatures with increased urbanization, little is known about how this may be different if a city shrinks due to urban decline. We hypothesize that the changes associated with shrinking cities will have a measurable impact on their local climatology that is different than in areas experiencing increased urbanization. Here we present our analysis of historical temperature and precipitation records (1900–2020) from weather stations positioned in multiple shrinking cities from within the Rust Belt region of the United States and in growing cities within and outside of this region. Our results suggest that while temperatures are increasing overall, these increases are lower in shrinking cities than those cities that are continuing to experience urban growth. Our analysis also suggests there are differences in precipitation trends between shrinking and growing cities. We also highlight recent climate data in Detroit, MI in the context of these longer-term changes in climatology to support urban planning and management decisions that may influence or be influenced by these trends.
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Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States
Urbanization has caused environmental changes, such as urban heat islands (UHIs), that affect terrestrial ecosystems. However, how and to what extent urbanization affects plant phenology remains relatively unexplored. Here, we investigated the changes in the satellite-derived start of season (SOS) and the covariation between SOS and temperature ( R T ) in 85 large cities across the conterminous United States for the period 2001–2014. We found that 1) the SOS came significantly earlier (6.1 ± 6.3 d) in 74 cities and R T was significantly weaker (0.03 ± 0.07) in 43 cities when compared with their surrounding rural areas ( P < 0.05); 2) the decreased magnitude in R T mainly occurred in cities in relatively cold regions with an annual mean temperature <17.3 °C (e.g., Minnesota, Michigan, and Pennsylvania); and 3) the magnitude of urban−rural difference in both SOS and R T was primarily correlated with the intensity of UHI. Simulations of two phenology models further suggested that more and faster heat accumulation contributed to the earlier SOS, while a decrease in required chilling led to a decline in R T magnitude in urban areas. These findings provide observational evidence of a reduced covariation between temperature and SOS in major US cities, implying the response of spring phenology to warming conditions in nonurban environments may decline in the warming future.
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- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10162388
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume:
- 117
- Issue:
- 8
- ISSN:
- 0027-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 4228 to 4233
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Summary Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited.
Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering).
Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions.
Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.
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Abstract Climate‐driven shifts in phenology, which are being observed worldwide, affect ecosystem services, trophic interactions, and community composition, presenting challenges to managers in protected areas. Resource management benefits from local, species‐specific phenology information. However, phenology monitoring programs in heterogeneous landscapes typically require serendipitous historical records or many years of contemporary data before trends in phenological responses to changes in climate can be analyzed. Here, we used a trails‐as‐transects approach to rapidly accumulate monitoring data across environmental gradients on three mountains in Acadia National Park, Maine,
USA , and compared our results to phenological changes observed in Concord, Massachusetts,USA . In four years of intensive monitoring of transects on three mountains, we found large variability in spring temperatures across the mountains, but consistent patterns of advancing flower and leaf phenology in warmer microclimates. Reduced sampling intensity would have yielded similar results, but a shorter duration would not have revealed these patterns. The plants in Acadia responded to warming spring temperatures by shifting leaf and flower phenology in the same direction (earlier), but at a reduced rate (as measured in d/°C), in comparison with plants in southern New England (e.g., Concord, Massachusetts,USA ). Our approach takes advantage of topographical complexity and associated microclimate gradients to substitute for long time series, allowing for rapid assessment of phenological response to climate. Other climate gradients (e.g., urban‐to‐rural, latitudinal, or coastal‐to‐inland) could work similarly. This intensive monitoring over a short time period quickly builds a robust dataset and can inform management decisions regarding future monitoring strategies, including sampling designs for citizen science‐based phenology monitoring programs. -
The urban heat island (UHI) effect, the phenomenon by which cities are warmer than rural surroundings, is increasingly important in a rapidly urbanizing and warming world, but fine-scale differences in temperature within cities are difficult to observe accurately. Networks of air temperature (Tair) sensors rarely offer the spatial density needed to capture neighborhood-level disparities in warming, while satellite measures of land surface temperature (LST) do not reflect the air temperatures that people physically experience. This analysis combines both Tair measurements recorded by a spatially-dense stationary sensor network in Dane County, Wisconsin, and remotely-sensed measurements of LST over the same area—to improve the use and interpretation of LST in UHI studies. The data analyzed span three summer months (June, July, and August) and eight years (2012–2019). Overall, Tair and LST displayed greater agreement in spatial distribution than in magnitude. The relationship between day of the year and correlation was fit to a parabolic curve (R2 = 0.76, p = 0.0002) that peaked in late July. The seasonal evolution in the relationship between Tair and LST, along with particularly high variability in LST across agricultural land cover suggest that plant phenology contributes to a seasonally varying relationship between Tair and LST measurements of the UHI.more » « less
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Abstract The two-resistance mechanism (TRM) attribution method, which was designed to analyze the urban–rural contrast of temperature, is improved to study the urban–rural contrast of heat stress. The improved method can be applied to diagnosing any heat stress index that is a function of temperature and humidity. As an example, in this study we use it to analyze the summertime urban–rural contrast of simplified wet bulb globe temperature (SWBGT) simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory land model coupled with an urban canopy model. We find that the urban–rural contrast of SWBGT is primarily caused by the lack of evapotranspiration in urban areas during the daytime and the release of heat storage during the nighttime, with the urban–rural differences in aerodynamic features playing either positive or negative roles depending on the background climate. Compared to the magnitude of the urban–rural contrast of temperature, the magnitude of the urban–rural contrast of SWBGT is damped due to the moisture deficits in urban areas. We further find that the urban–rural contrast of 2-m air temperature/SWBGT is fundamentally different from that of canopy air temperature/SWBGT. Turbulent mixing in the surface layer leads to much smaller urban–rural contrasts of 2-m air temperature/SWBGT than their canopy air counterparts. Significance Statement Heat leads to serious public health concerns, but urban and rural areas have different levels of heat stress. Our study explains the magnitude and pattern of the simulated urban–rural contrast in heat stress at the global scale and improves an attribution method to quantify which biophysical processes are mostly responsible for the simulated urban–rural contrast in heat stress. We highlight two well-known causes of higher heat stress in cities: the lack of evapotranspiration and the stronger release of heat storage. Meanwhile, we draw attention to the vegetation types in rural areas, which determine the urban–rural difference in surface roughness and significantly affect the urban–rural difference in heat stress. Last, we find the urban–rural contrasts of 2-m air temperature/SWBGT are largely reduced relative to their canopy air counterparts due to the turbulent mixing effect.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1911117117
