- Award ID(s):
- NSF-PAR ID:
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 11350 to 11355
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical component to identify areas at risk of viral spillover, and bats act as reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecological niche modelling pipeline for bat hosts of SARS-like viruses (subgenus Sarbecovirus ), given that several closely related viruses have been discovered and sarbecovirus–host interactions have gained attention since SARS-CoV-2 emergence. We assessed sampling biases and modelled current distributions of bats based on climate and landscape relationships and project future scenarios for host hotspots. The most important predictors of species distributions were temperature seasonality and cave availability. We identified concentrated host hotspots in Myanmar and projected range contractions for most species by 2100. Our projections indicate hotspots will shift east in Southeast Asia in locations greater than 2°C hotter in a fossil-fuelled development future. Hotspot shifts have implications for conservation and public health, as loss of population connectivity can lead to local extinctions, and remaining hotspots may concentrate near human populations.more » « less
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Tooth presence/absence was best predicted by the interaction of leaf lobing and mean annual temperature (
MAT), but often in patterns opposite those previously reported: species were more likely to be toothed with warmer temperatures, particularly for unlobed and highly lobed leaves. In contrast, tooth density was best predicted by the interaction of MATand the season of most rain; density declines with temperature as consistent with expectations, but only in winter‐rain dominated areas. Woody and nonwoody species within Pelargoniumhave similar associations between tooth presence/absence and MAT, contrary to the expectation that patterns within nonwoody species would be insignificant. Conclusions
Pelargoniumleaf margins show predictable responses to climate, but these responses are complex and can contradict those found for global patterns across plant communities.
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