More Like this

1. Ice viscosity is more sensitive to stress than commonly assumed

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00385-x  

   Millstein, Joanna D.; Minchew, Brent M.; Pegler, Samuel S. (December 2022, Communications Earth & Environment)

   Abstract Accurate representation of the viscous flow of ice is fundamental to understanding glacier dynamics and projecting sea-level rise. Ice viscosity is often described by a simple but largely untested and uncalibrated constitutive relation, Glen’s Flow Law, wherein the rate of deformation is proportional to stress raised to the power n . The value n  = 3 is commonly prescribed in ice-flow models, though observations and experiments support a range of values across stresses and temperatures found on Earth. Here, we leverage recent remotely-sensed observations of Antarctic ice shelves to show that Glen’s Flow Law approximates the viscous flow of ice with n  = 4.1 ± 0.4 in fast-flowing areas. The viscosity and flow rate of ice are therefore more sensitive to changes in stress than most ice-flow models allow. By calibrating the governing equation of ice deformation, our result is a pathway towards improving projections of future glacier change. 

   more » « less
2. Climatic Thresholds for Widespread Ice Shelf Hydrofracturing and Ice Cliff Calving In Antarctica: Implications for Future Sea Level Rise

   DeConto, R. (December 2018, AGU Fall Meeting)

   The loss or thinning of buttressing ice shelves and accompanying changes in grounding-zone stress balance are commonly implicated as the primary trigger for grounding-line retreat, such as that observed in Amundsen Sea outlet glaciers today. Ice-shelf thinning is mostly attributed to the presence of warm ocean waters beneath the shelves. However, climate model projections show that summer air temperatures could soon exceed the threshold for widespread meltwater production on ice-shelf surfaces. This has serious implications for their future stability, because they are vulnerable to water-induced flexural stresses and water-aided crevasse penetration, termed ‘hydrofracturing’. Once initiated, the rate of shelf loss through hydrofracturing can far exceed that caused by sub-surface melting, and could result in the complete loss of some buttressing ice shelves, with marine grounding lines suddenly becoming calving ice fronts. In places where those exposed ice fronts are thick (>900m) and crevassed, deviatoric stresses can exceed the strength of the ice and the cliff face will fail mechanically, leading to rapid calving like that seen in analogous settings such as Jakobshavn on Greenland. Here we explore the implications of hydrofacturing and subsequent ice-cliff collapse in a warming climate, by parameterizing these processes in a hybrid ice sheet-shelf model. Model sensitivities to meltwater production and to ice-cliff calving rate (a function of cliff height above the stress balance threshold triggering brittle failure) are calibrated to match modern observations of calving and thinning. We find the potential for major ice-sheet retreat if global mean temperature rises more than ~2ºC above preindustrial. In the model, Antarctic calving rates at thick ice fronts are not allowed to exceed those observed in Greenland today. This may be a conservative assumption, considering the very different spatial scales of Antarctic outlets, such as Thwaites. Nonetheless, simulations following a ‘worst case’ RCP8.5 scenario produce rates of sea-level rise measured in cm per year by the end of this century. Clearly, the potential for brittle processes to deliver ice to the ocean, in addition to viscous and basal processes, needs to be better constrained through more complete, physically based representations of calving. 

   more » « less
3. A quasi-one-dimensional ice mélange flow model based on continuum descriptions of granular materials

   https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-297  

   Amundson, Jason M; Robel, Alexander A; Burton, Justin C; Nissanka, Kavinda (March 2024, EGU)

   Abstract. Field and remote sensing studies suggest that ice mélange influences glacier-fjord systems by exerting stresses on glacier termini and releasing large amounts of freshwater into fjords. The broader impacts of ice mélange over long time scales are unknown, in part due to a lack of suitable ice mélange flow models. Previous efforts have included modifying existing viscous ice shelf models, despite the fact that ice mélange is fundamentally a granular material, and running computationally expensive discrete element simulations. Here, we draw on laboratory studies of granular materials, which exhibit viscous flow when stresses greatly exceed the yield point, plug flow when the stresses approach the yield point, and stress transfer via force chains. By implementing the nonlocal granular fluidity rheology into a depth- and width-integrated stress balance equation, we produce a numerical model of ice mélange flow that is consistent with our understanding of well-packed granular materials and that is suitable for long time-scale simulations. For parallel-sided fjords, the model exhibits two possible steady state solutions. When there is no calving of new icebergs or melting of previously calved icebergs, the ice mélange is pushed down fjord by the advancing glacier terminus, the velocity is constant along the length of the fjord, and the thickness profile is exponential. When calving and melting are included, the ice mélange evolves to another steady state in which its location is fixed relative to the fjord walls, the thickness profile is relatively steep, and the flow is extensional. For the latter case, the model predicts that the steady-state ice mélange buttressing force depends on the surface and basal melt rates through an inverse power law relationship, decays roughly exponentially with both fjord width and gradient in fjord width, and increases with the iceberg calving flux. The increase in buttressing force with the calving flux, which depends on glacier thickness, appears to occur more rapidly than the force required to prevent the capsize of full-glacier-thickness icebergs, suggesting that glaciers with high calving fluxes may be more strongly influenced by ice mélange than those with small fluxes. 

   more » « less
4. A quasi-one-dimensional ice mélange flow model based on continuum descriptions of granular materials

   https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-19-2025  

   Amundson, Jason M; Robel, Alexander A; Burton, Justin C; Nissanka, Kavinda (January 2025, The Cryosphere)

   Field and remote sensing studies suggest that ice mélange influences glacier–fjord systems by exerting stresses on glacier termini and releasing large amounts of freshwater into fjords. The broader impacts of ice mélange over long timescales are unknown, in part due to a lack of suitable ice mélange flow models. Previous efforts have included modifying existing viscous ice shelf models, despite the fact that ice mélange is fundamentally a granular material, and running computationally expensive discrete element simulations. Here, we draw on laboratory studies of granular materials, which exhibit viscous flow when stresses greatly exceed the yield point, plug flow when the stresses approach the yield point, and exhibit stress transfer via force chains. By implementing the nonlocal granular fluidity rheology into a depth- and width-integrated stress balance equation, we produce a numerical model of ice mélange flow that is consistent with our understanding of well-packed granular materials and that is suitable for long-timescale simulations. For parallel-sided fjords, the model exhibits two possible steady-state solutions. When there is no calving of icebergs or melting of previously calved icebergs, the ice mélange is pushed down-fjord by the advancing glacier terminus, the velocity is constant along the length of the fjord, and the thickness profile is exponential. When calving and melting are included and treated as constants, the ice mélange evolves into another steady state in which its location is fixed relative to the fjord walls, the thickness profile is relatively steep, and the flow is extensional. For the latter case, the model predicts that the steady-state ice mélange buttressing force depends on the surface and basal melt rates through an inverse power-law relationship, decays roughly exponentially with both fjord width and gradient in fjord width, and increases with the iceberg calving flux. The buttressing force appears to increase with calving flux (i.e., glacier thickness) more rapidly than the force required to prevent the capsizing of full-glacier-thickness icebergs, suggesting that glaciers with high calving fluxes may be more strongly influenced by ice mélange than those with small fluxes. 

   more » « less
5. Deep learning the flow law of Antarctic ice shelves

   https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adp3300  

   Wang, Yongji; Lai, Ching-Yao; Prior, David J; Cowen-Breen, Charlie (March 2025, Science)

   Antarctic ice shelves buttress the grounded ice sheet, mitigating global sea level rise. However, fundamental mechanical properties, such as the ice flow law and viscosity structure, remain under debate. In this work, by leveraging remote-sensing data and physics-informed deep learning, we provide evidence over several ice shelves that the flow law follows a grain size–sensitive composite rheology in the compression zone. In the extension zone, we found that ice exhibits anisotropic properties. We constructed ice shelf–wide anisotropic viscosity maps that capture the suture zones, which inhibit rift propagation. The inferred stress exponent near the grounding zone dictates the grounding-line ice flux and grounding line stability, whereas the inferred viscosity maps inform the prediction of rifts. Both are essential for predicting the future mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. 

   more » « less