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1. Indicators of illicit activities in gold supply chains: Insights from Peru and Kenya

   Smith, Nicole M.; Seguin, K.; Saka, U.M.; Duzgun, S.; Soud, D.; and White, J. (June 2023, WIDER Working Paper)

   United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (Ed.)

   Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for the jewellery industry, which accounts for the majority of global gold demand. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that midstream portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, certain types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global jewellery trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains. 

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2. On the Analysis of Illicit Supply Networks Using Variable State Resolution-Markov Chains

   https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50146-4_38  

   González Ordiano, Jorge Ángel; Finn, Lisa; Winterlich, Anthony; Moloney, Gary; Simske, Steven (April 2020, International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems)

   The trade in illicit items, such as counterfeits, not only leads to the loss of large sums of private and public revenue, but also poses a danger to individuals, undermines governments, and--in the most extreme cases--fi nances criminal organizations. It is estimated that in 2013 trade in illicit items accounted for 2.5% of the global commerce. To combat illicit trade, it is necessary to understand its illicit supply networks. Therefore, we present in this article an approach that is able to find an optimal description of an illicit supply network using a series of Variable State Resolution-Markov Chains. The new method is applied to a real-world dataset stemming from the Global Product Authentication Service of Micro Focus International. The results show how an illicit supply network might be analyzed with the help of this method. 

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3. Rumpelstiltsken’s feat: cloth and German trade with Iceland

   Smith, Michele Hayeur (October 2019, AmS-Skrifter 27, 107–120, Stavanger,)

   Identifying foreign cloth imports in the Icelandic archaeological corpus is difficult at best, yet given widespread similarities in homespun cloth from sites across the country, imported cloth can be identified visually through the presence of refined finishing techniques (such as teaseling, shearing, and fulling) that were uncommon in Iceland and were the products of specialist craftsmen in Europe. This paper examines textile assemblages from deposits datable to the period of Hanseatic trade at three sites, Gilsbakki, Reykholt, and Stóra-Borg that represent two wealthy, interior, parish centres and a moderate-sized coastal farm, respectively. Variations in the number and diversity of imported cloth items within these sites’ assemblages suggest that while Hanseatic material culture was widely spread on Icelandic rural sites, the nature of the material culture sub-assemblages attributable to Hanseatic trade was not obviously a direct function of households’ wealth or proximity to harbours but may have engaged other cultural factors linked to the political and social challenges of the post-Reformation period and the roles of individual households in regional or intra-Icelandic trade. 

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4. International Economic Sanctions and Third-Country Effects

   https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00232-9  

   Ghironi, Fabio; Kim, Daisoon; Ozhan, Galip Kemal (January 2024, IMF Economic Review)

   Levchenko, Andrei (Ed.)

   This paper studies international trade and macroeconomic dynamics triggered by economic sanctions, and the associated welfare losses, in a calibrated, asymmetric, three-country model of the world economy. We assume that there are two production sectors in each country, and the sanctioned country has a comparative advantage in production of a commodity (for convenience, gas) needed to produce final, differentiated consumption goods. We consider three types of sanctions: sanctions on trade in final goods, financial sanctions, and gas trade sanctions. We calibrate the model to an aggregate of countries that are currently imposing sanctions on Russia (the European Union, the UK, and the USA), Russia, and an aggregate of third countries (China, India, and Turkey). We show that, instead of reflecting the success of sanctions, exchange rate movements reflect the type of sanctions and the direction of the resulting within-country sectoral reallocations. Our welfare analysis demonstrates that the sanctioned country’s welfare losses are significantly mitigated, and the sanctioning country’s losses are amplified, if the third country does not join the sanctions, but the third country benefits from not joining. These findings highlight the necessity, but also the challenge, of coordinating sanctions internationally. 

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5. Opportunities for Transdisciplinary Science to Mitigate Biosecurity Risks From the Intersectionality of Illegal Wildlife Trade With Emerging Zoonotic Pathogens

   https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.604929  

   Aguirre, A. Alonso; Gore, Meredith L.; Kammer-Kerwick, Matt; Curtin, Kevin M.; Heyns, Andries; Preiser, Wolfgang; Shelley, Louise I. (February 2021, Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution)

   null (Ed.)

   Existing collaborations among public health practitioners, veterinarians, and ecologists do not sufficiently consider illegal wildlife trade in their surveillance, biosafety, and security (SB&S) efforts even though the risks to health and biodiversity from these threats are significant. We highlight multiple cases to illustrate the risks posed by existing gaps in understanding the intersectionality of the illegal wildlife trade and zoonotic disease transmission. We argue for more integrative science in support of decision-making using the One Health approach. Opportunities abound to apply transdisciplinary science to sustainable wildlife trade policy and programming, such as combining on-the-ground monitoring of health, environmental, and social conditions with an understanding of the operational and spatial dynamics of illicit wildlife trade. We advocate for (1) a surveillance sample management system for enhanced diagnostic efficiency in collaboration with diverse and local partners that can help establish new or link existing surveillance networks, outbreak analysis, and risk mitigation strategies; (2) novel analytical tools and decision support models that can enhance self-directed local livelihoods by addressing monitoring, detection, prevention, interdiction, and remediation; (3) enhanced capacity to promote joint SB&S efforts that can encourage improved human and animal health, timely reporting, emerging disease detection, and outbreak response; and, (4) enhanced monitoring of illicit wildlife trade and supply chains across the heterogeneous context within which they occur. By integrating more diverse scientific disciplines, and their respective scientists with indigenous people and local community insight and risk assessment data, we can help promote a more sustainable and equitable wildlife trade. 

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