An official website of the United States government
The trade on illegal goods and services, also known as illicit trade, is expected to drain 4.2 trillion dollars from the world economy and put 5.4 million jobs at risk by 2022. These estimates reflect the importance of combating illicit trade, as it poses a danger to individuals and undermines governments. To do so, however, we have to fi rst understand the factors that influence this type of trade. Therefore, we present in this article a method that uses node embeddings and clustering to compare a country based illicit supply network to other networks that represent other types of country relationships (e.g., free trade agreements, language). The results offer initial clues on the factors that might be driving the illicit trade between countries.
more »
« less
On the Analysis of Illicit Supply Networks Using Variable State Resolution-Markov Chains
The trade in illicit items, such as counterfeits, not only leads to the loss of large sums of private and public revenue, but also poses a danger to individuals, undermines governments, and--in the most extreme cases--fi nances criminal organizations. It is estimated that in 2013 trade in illicit items accounted for 2.5% of the global commerce. To combat illicit trade, it is necessary to understand its illicit supply networks. Therefore, we present in this article an approach that is able to find an optimal description of an illicit supply network using a series of Variable State Resolution-Markov Chains. The new method is applied to a real-world dataset stemming from the Global Product Authentication Service of Micro Focus International. The results show how an illicit supply network might be analyzed with the help of this method.
more »
« less
- Award ID(s):
- 1842577
- PAR ID:
- 10185300
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems
- Volume:
- 18
- Issue:
- 1
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 513-527
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (Ed.)Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for the jewellery industry, which accounts for the majority of global gold demand. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that midstream portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, certain types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global jewellery trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains.more » « less
-
Illicit Wildlife Trade (IWT) is a serious global crime that negatively impacts biodiversity, human health, national security, and economic development. Many flora and fauna are trafficked in different product forms. We investigate a network interdiction problem for wildlife trafficking and introduce a new model to tackle key challenges associated with IWT. Our model captures the interdiction problem faced by law enforcement impeding IWT on flight networks, though it can be extended to other types of transportation networks. We incorporate vital issues unique to IWT, including the need for training and difficulty recognizing illicit wildlife products, the impact of charismatic species and geopolitical differences, and the varying amounts of information and objectives traffickers may use when choosing transit routes. Additionally, we incorporate different detection probabilities at nodes and along arcs depending on law enforcement’s interdiction and training actions. We present solutions for several key IWT supply chains using realistic data from conservation research, seizure databases, and international reports. We compare our model to two benchmark models and highlight key features of the interdiction strategy. We discuss the implications of our models for combating IWT in practice and highlight critical areas of concern for stakeholders.more » « less
-
Abstract This article reviews extant multidisciplinary literature to uncover existing themes and directions in the knowledge of the overlap between natural resource scarcity and illicit supply chain activity. In doing so, the authors present a novel review of this nascent, complex, and multidisciplinary research area. This review has uncovered 127 articles that have not been synthesized or organized in a meaningful way with the supply chain literature. It extracts insights and develops a comprehensive process framework encompassing the following: (a) antecedents associated with natural resource extraction, which foments the opportunity for illicit activity to thrive; (b) resulting economic, social, and environmental outcomes from illicit activity as it relates to natural resource extraction; and (c) potential moderating processes, which either enable or inhibit illicit activity to occur, including firm‐level tactics that businesses can employ to counteract illicit activity throughout the supply chain and to promote sustainable long‐term operations. An extensive agenda is presented suggesting future research paths, methodologies, theories, and potential contributions.more » « less
-
Agrawal, A. (Ed.)Wildlife trafficking, whether local or transnational in scope, undermines sustainable development efforts, degrades cultural resources, endangers species, erodes the local and global economy, and facilitates the spread of zoonotic diseases. Wildlife trafficking networks (WTNs) occupy a unique gray space in supply chains—straddling licit and illicit networks, supporting legitimate and criminal workforces, and often demonstrating high resilience in their sourcing flexibility and adaptability. Authorities in different sectors desire, but frequently lack knowledge about how to allocate resources to disrupt illicit wildlife supply networks and prevent negative collateral impacts. Novel conceptualizations and a deeper scientific understanding of WTN structures are needed to help unravel the dynamics of interaction between disruption and resilience while accommodating socioenvironmental context. We use the case of ploughshare tortoise trafficking to help illustrate the potential of key advancements in interdisciplinary thinking. Insights herein suggest a significant need and opportunity for scientists to generate new science-based recommendations for WTN-related data collection and analysis for supply chain visibility, shifts in illicit supply chain dominance, network resilience, or limits of the supplier base.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
-
Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-50146-4_38
