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The trade in illicit items, such as counterfeits, not only leads to the loss of large sums of private and public revenue, but also poses a danger to individuals, undermines governments, and--in the most extreme cases--fi nances criminal organizations. It is estimated that in 2013 trade in illicit items accounted for 2.5% of the global commerce. To combat illicit trade, it is necessary to understand its illicit supply networks. Therefore, we present in this article an approach that is able to find an optimal description of an illicit supply network using a series of Variable State Resolution-Markov Chains. The new method is applied to a real-world dataset stemming from the Global Product Authentication Service of Micro Focus International. The results show how an illicit supply network might be analyzed with the help of this method.
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Indicators of illicit activities in gold supply chains: Insights from Peru and Kenya
Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for the jewellery industry, which accounts for the majority of global gold demand. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that midstream portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, certain types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global jewellery trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains.
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- PAR ID:
- 10482214
- Publisher / Repository:
- UN WIDER
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- WIDER Working Paper
- ISSN:
- 1798-7237
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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