skip to main content

Title: Decompensation in Critical Care: Early Prediction of Acute Heart Failure Onset
Background Heart failure is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Acute heart failure, broadly defined as rapid onset of new or worsening signs and symptoms of heart failure, often requires hospitalization and admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). This acute condition is highly heterogeneous and less well-understood as compared to chronic heart failure. The ICU, through detailed and continuously monitored patient data, provides an opportunity to retrospectively analyze decompensation and heart failure to evaluate physiological states and patient outcomes. Objective The goal of this study is to examine the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors among those admitted to ICUs and to evaluate combinations of clinical features that are predictive of decompensation events, such as the onset of acute heart failure, using machine learning techniques. To accomplish this objective, we leveraged tele-ICU data from over 200 hospitals across the United States. Methods We evaluated the feasibility of predicting decompensation soon after ICU admission for 26,534 patients admitted without a history of heart failure with specific heart failure risk factors (ie, coronary artery disease, hypertension, and myocardial infarction) and 96,350 patients admitted without risk factors using remotely monitored laboratory, vital signs, and discrete physiological measurements. Multivariate logistic regression and more » random forest models were applied to predict decompensation and highlight important features from combinations of model inputs from dissimilar data. Results The most prevalent risk factor in our data set was hypertension, although most patients diagnosed with heart failure were admitted to the ICU without a risk factor. The highest heart failure prediction accuracy was 0.951, and the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.9503 with random forest and combined vital signs, laboratory values, and discrete physiological measurements. Random forest feature importance also highlighted combinations of several discrete physiological features and laboratory measures as most indicative of decompensation. Timeline analysis of aggregate vital signs revealed a point of diminishing returns where additional vital signs data did not continue to improve results. Conclusions Heart failure risk factors are common in tele-ICU data, although most patients that are diagnosed with heart failure later in an ICU stay presented without risk factors making a prediction of decompensation critical. Decompensation was predicted with reasonable accuracy using tele-ICU data, and optimal data extraction for time series vital signs data was identified near a 200-minute window size. Overall, results suggest combinations of laboratory measurements and vital signs are viable for early and continuous prediction of patient decompensation. « less
Authors:
; ;
Award ID(s):
1838745
Publication Date:
NSF-PAR ID:
10186367
Journal Name:
JMIR Medical Informatics
Volume:
8
Issue:
8
Page Range or eLocation-ID:
e19892
ISSN:
2291-9694
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. The new coronavirus (now named SARS-CoV-2) causing the disease pandemic in 2019 (COVID-19), has so far infected over 35 million people worldwide and killed more than 1 million. Most people with COVID-19 have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. But some become seriously ill and need hospitalization. The sickest are admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and may need mechanical ventilation to help them breath. Being able to predict which patients with COVID-19 will become severely ill could help hospitals around the world manage the huge influx of patients caused by the pandemic and save lives. Now, Hao, Sotudian, Wang, Xu et al. show that computer models using artificial intelligence technology can help predict which COVID-19 patients will be hospitalized, admitted to the ICU, or need mechanical ventilation. Using data of 2,566 COVID-19 patients from five Massachusetts hospitals, Hao et al. created three separate models that can predict hospitalization, ICU admission, and the need for mechanical ventilation with more than 86% accuracy, based on patient characteristics, clinical symptoms, laboratory results and chest x-rays. Hao et al. found that the patients’ vital signs, age, obesity, difficulty breathing, and underlying diseases like diabetes, were the strongest predictors of the need formore »hospitalization. Being male, having diabetes, cloudy chest x-rays, and certain laboratory results were the most important risk factors for intensive care treatment and mechanical ventilation. Laboratory results suggesting tissue damage, severe inflammation or oxygen deprivation in the body's tissues were important warning signs of severe disease. The results provide a more detailed picture of the patients who are likely to suffer from severe forms of COVID-19. Using the predictive models may help physicians identify patients who appear okay but need closer monitoring and more aggressive treatment. The models may also help policy makers decide who needs workplace accommodations such as being allowed to work from home, which individuals may benefit from more frequent testing, and who should be prioritized for vaccination when a vaccine becomes available.« less
  2. Background Acute respiratory failure is generally treated with invasive mechanical ventilation or noninvasive respiratory support strategies. The efficacies of the various strategies are not fully understood. There is a need for accurate therapy-based phenotyping for secondary analyses of electronic health record data to answer research questions regarding respiratory management and outcomes with each strategy. Objective The objective of this study was to address knowledge gaps related to ventilation therapy strategies across diverse patient populations by developing an algorithm for accurate identification of patients with acute respiratory failure. To accomplish this objective, our goal was to develop rule-based computable phenotypes for patients with acute respiratory failure using remotely monitored intensive care unit (tele-ICU) data. This approach permits analyses by ventilation strategy across broad patient populations of interest with the ability to sub-phenotype as research questions require. Methods Tele-ICU data from ≥200 hospitals were used to create a rule-based algorithm for phenotyping patients with acute respiratory failure, defined as an adult patient requiring invasive mechanical ventilation or a noninvasive strategy. The dataset spans a wide range of hospitals and ICU types across all US regions. Structured clinical data, including ventilation therapy start and stop times, medication records, and nurse and respiratory therapymore »charts, were used to define clinical phenotypes. All adult patients of any diagnoses with record of ventilation therapy were included. Patients were categorized by ventilation type, and analysis of event sequences using record timestamps defined each phenotype. Manual validation was performed on 5% of patients in each phenotype. Results We developed 7 phenotypes: (0) invasive mechanical ventilation, (1) noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation, (2) high-flow nasal insufflation, (3) noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation subsequently requiring intubation, (4) high-flow nasal insufflation subsequently requiring intubation, (5) invasive mechanical ventilation with extubation to noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation, and (6) invasive mechanical ventilation with extubation to high-flow nasal insufflation. A total of 27,734 patients met our phenotype criteria and were categorized into these ventilation subgroups. Manual validation of a random selection of 5% of records from each phenotype resulted in a total accuracy of 88% and a precision and recall of 0.8789 and 0.8785, respectively, across all phenotypes. Individual phenotype validation showed that the algorithm categorizes patients particularly well but has challenges with patients that require ≥2 management strategies. Conclusions Our proposed computable phenotyping algorithm for patients with acute respiratory failure effectively identifies patients for therapy-focused research regardless of admission diagnosis or comorbidities and allows for management strategy comparisons across populations of interest.« less
  3. Abstract Objective To develop predictive models of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes, elucidate the influence of socioeconomic factors, and assess algorithmic racial fairness using a racially diverse patient population with high social needs. Materials and Methods Data included 7,102 patients with positive (RT-PCR) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 test at a safety-net system in Massachusetts. Linear and nonlinear classification methods were applied. A score based on a recurrent neural network and a transformer architecture was developed to capture the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Combined with patient characteristics, clinical variables, and hospital occupancy measures, this dynamic vital score was used to train predictive models. Results Hospitalizations can be predicted with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 92% using symptoms, hospital occupancy, and patient characteristics, including social determinants of health. Parsimonious models to predict intensive care, mechanical ventilation, and mortality that used the most recent labs and vitals exhibited AUCs of 92.7%, 91.2%, and 94%, respectively. Early predictive models, using labs and vital signs closer to admission had AUCs of 81.1%, 84.9%, and 92%, respectively. Discussion The most accurate models exhibit racial bias, being more likely to falsely predict that Black patients will be hospitalized. Models thatmore »are only based on the dynamic vital score exhibited accuracies close to the best parsimonious models, although the latter also used laboratories. Conclusions This large study demonstrates that COVID-19 severity may accurately be predicted using a score that accounts for the dynamic evolution of vital signs. Further, race, social determinants of health, and hospital occupancy play an important role.« less
  4. Advancements in computing and data from the near universal acceptance and implementation of electronic health records has been formative for the growth of personalized, automated, and immediate patient care models that were not previously possible. Artificial intelligence (AI) and its subfields of machine learning, reinforcement learning, and deep learning are well-suited to deal with such data. The authors in this paper review current applications of AI in clinical medicine and discuss the most likely future contributions that AI will provide to the healthcare industry. For instance, in response to the need to risk stratify patients, appropriately cultivated and curated data can assist decision-makers in stratifying preoperative patients into risk categories, as well as categorizing the severity of ailments and health for non-operative patients admitted to hospitals. Previous overt, traditional vital signs and laboratory values that are used to signal alarms for an acutely decompensating patient may be replaced by continuously monitoring and updating AI tools that can pick up early imperceptible patterns predicting subtle health deterioration. Furthermore, AI may help overcome challenges with multiple outcome optimization limitations or sequential decision-making protocols that limit individualized patient care. Despite these tremendously helpful advancements, the data sets that AI models train on andmore »develop have the potential for misapplication and thereby create concerns for application bias. Subsequently, the mechanisms governing this disruptive innovation must be understood by clinical decision-makers to prevent unnecessary harm. This need will force physicians to change their educational infrastructure to facilitate understanding AI platforms, modeling, and limitations to best acclimate practice in the age of AI. By performing a thorough narrative review, this paper examines these specific AI applications, limitations, and requisites while reviewing a few examples of major data sets that are being cultivated and curated in the US.« less
  5. Accurate prediction and monitoring of patient health in the intensive care unit can inform shared decisions regarding appropriateness of care delivery, risk-reduction strategies, and intensive care resource use. Traditionally, algorithmic solutions for patient outcome prediction rely solely on data available from electronic health records (EHR). In this pilot study, we explore the benefits of augmenting existing EHR data with novel measurements from wrist-worn activity sensors as part of a clinical environment known as the Intelligent ICU. We implemented temporal deep learning models based on two distinct sources of patient data: (1) routinely measured vital signs from electronic health records, and (2) activity data collected from wearable sensors. As a proxy for illness severity, our models predicted whether patients leaving the intensive care unit would be successfully or unsuccessfully discharged from the hospital. We overcome the challenge of small sample size in our prospective cohort by applying deep transfer learning using EHR data from a much larger cohort of traditional ICU patients. Our experiments quantify added utility of non-traditional measurements for predicting patient health, especially when applying a transfer learning procedure to small novel Intelligent ICU cohorts of critically ill patients.