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1. CMIP6 Model-projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the 21st Century

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0442.1  

   Zhao, Tianbao ; Dai, Aiguo ( November 2021 , Journal of Climate)

   Abstract Drought is projected to become more severe and widespread as global warming continues in the 21 st century, but hydroclimatic changes and their drivers are not well examined in the latest projections from the Phase Six of the Coupled Model Inetercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here, precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (E), soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 25 CMIP6 models, together with self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index with Penman-Monteith potential evapotranspiration (scPDSIpm), are analyzed to quantify hydroclimatic and drought changes in the 21 st century and the underlying causes. Results confirm consistent drying in these hydroclimatic metrics across most of the Americas (including the Amazon), Europe and the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, and Australia; although the drying magnitude differs, with the drying being more severe and widespread in surface SM than in total SM. Global drought frequency based on surface SM and scPDSIpm increases by ~25%–100% (50%–200%) under the SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario in the 21 st century together with large increases in drought duration and areas, which result from a decrease in the mean and flattening of the probability distribution functions of SM and scPDSIpm; while the R-based drought changes are relatively small. Changes in both P and E contribute tomore »the SM change, whereas scPDSIpm decreases result from ubiquitous PET increases and P decreases over subtropical areas. The R changes are determined primarily by P changes, while the PET change explains most of the E increase. Inter-model spreads in surface SM and R changes are large, leading to large uncertainties in the drought projections.« less
2. Multi-variable, multi-configuration testing of ORCHIDEE land surface model water flux and storage estimates across semi-arid sites in the southwestern US

   https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-598  

   MacBean, N. ; Scott, R. ; Biederman, J. ; Ottlé, C. ; Vuichard, N. ; Ducharne, A. ; Kolb, T. ; Dore, S. ; Litvak, M.E. ; Moore, D. ( December 2019 , Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions)

   Abstract. Plant activity in semi-arid ecosystems is largely controlled by pulses of precipitation, making them particularly vulnerable to increased aridity expected with climate change. Simple bucket-model hydrology schemes in land surface models (LSMs) have had limited ability in accurately capturing semi-arid water stores and fluxes. Recent, more complex, LSM hydrology models have not been widely evaluated against semi-arid ecosystem in situ data. We hypothesize that the failure of older LSM versions to represent evapotranspiration, ET, in arid lands is because simple bucket models do not capture realistic fluctuations in upper layer soil moisture. We therefore predict that including a discretized soil hydrology scheme based on a mechanistic description of moisture diffusion will result in an improvement in model ET when compared to data because the temporal variability of upper layer soil moisture content better corresponds to that of precipitation inputs. To test this prediction, we compared ORCHIDEE LSM simulations from (1) a simple conceptual 2-layer bucket scheme with fixed hydrological parameters; and (2) a 11-layer discretized mechanistic scheme of moisture diffusion in unsaturated soil based on Richards equations against daily and monthly soil moisture and ET observations, together with data-derived transpiration / evaporation, T / ET, ratios, from six semi-arid grass, shrub and forestmore »sites in the southwestern USA. The 11-layer scheme also has modified calculations of surface runoff, bare soil evaporation, and water limitation to be compatible with the more complex hydrology configuration. To diagnose remaining discrepancies in the 11-layer model, we tested two further configurations: (i) the addition of a term that captures bare soil evaporation resistance to dry soil; and (ii) reduced bare soil fraction. We found that the more mechanistic 11-layer model results better representation of the daily and monthly ET observations. We show that is likely because of improved simulation of soil moisture in the upper layers of soil (top 5 cm). Some discrepancies between observed and modelled soil moisture and ET may allow us to prioritize future model development. Adding a soil resistance term generally decreased simulated E and increased soil moisture content, thus increasing T and T / ET ratios and reducing the negative T / ET model-data bias. By reducing the bare soil fraction in the model, we illustrated that modelled leaf T is too low at sparsely vegetated sites. We conclude that a discretized soil hydrology scheme and associated developments improves estimates of ET by allowing the model to more closely match the pulse precipitation dynamics of these semi-arid ecosystems; however, the partitioning of T from bare soil evaporation is not solved by this modification alone.« less
3. Multivariate Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration for Drought Monitoring

   https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0057.1  

   Gavahi, Keyhan ; Abbaszadeh, Peyman ; Moradkhani, Hamid ; Zhan, Xiwu ; Hain, Christopher ( October 2020 , Journal of Hydrometeorology)

   Abstract Soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) are key variables of the terrestrial water cycle with a strong relationship. This study examines remotely sensed soil moisture and evapotranspiration data assimilation (DA) with the aim of improving drought monitoring. Although numerous efforts have gone into assimilating satellite soil moisture observations into land surface models to improve their predictive skills, little attention has been given to the combined use of soil moisture and evapotranspiration to better characterize hydrologic fluxes. In this study, we assimilate two remotely sensed datasets, namely, Soil Moisture Operational Product System (SMOPS) and MODIS evapotranspiration (MODIS16 ET), at 1-km spatial resolution, into the VIC land surface model by means of an evolutionary particle filter method. To achieve this, a fully parallelized framework based on model and domain decomposition using a parallel divide-and-conquer algorithm was implemented. The findings show improvement in soil moisture predictions by multivariate assimilation of both ET and SM as compared to univariate scenarios. In addition, monthly and weekly drought maps are produced using the updated root-zone soil moisture percentiles over the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint basin in the southeastern United States. The model-based estimates are then compared against the corresponding U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) archive maps. The results aremore »consistent with the USDM maps during the winter and spring season considering the drought extents; however, the drought severity was found to be slightly higher according to DA method. Comparing different assimilation scenarios showed that ET assimilation results in wetter conditions comparing to open-loop and univariate SM DA. The multivariate DA then combines the effects of the two variables and provides an in-between condition.« less
4. Designing a suite of measurements to understand the critical zone

   https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-211-2016  

   Brantley, Susan L. ; DiBiase, Roman A. ; Russo, Tess A. ; Shi, Yuning ; Lin, Henry ; Davis, Kenneth J. ; Kaye, Margot ; Hill, Lillian ; Kaye, Jason ; Eissenstat, David M. ; et al ( January 2016 , Earth Surface Dynamics)

   Abstract. Many scientists have begun to refer to the earth surface environment from the upper canopy to the depths of bedrock as the critical zone (CZ). Identification of the CZ as an integral object worthy of study implicitly posits that the study of the whole earth surface will provide benefits that do not arise when studying the individual parts. To study the CZ, however, requires prioritizing among the measurements that can be made – and we do not generally agree on the priorities. Currently, the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO) is expanding from a small original focus area (0.08km², Shale Hills catchment), to a larger watershed (164km², Shavers Creek watershed) and is grappling with the prioritization. This effort is an expansion from a monolithologic first-order forested catchment to a watershed that encompasses several lithologies (shale, sandstone, limestone) and land use types (forest, agriculture). The goal of the project remains the same: to understand water, energy, gas, solute, and sediment (WEGSS) fluxes that are occurring today in the context of the record of those fluxes over geologic time as recorded in soil profiles, the sedimentary record, and landscape morphology.
   
   Given the small size of the Shalemore »Hills catchment, the original design incorporated measurement of as many parameters as possible at high temporal and spatial density. In the larger Shavers Creek watershed, however, we must focus the measurements. We describe a strategy of data collection and modeling based on a geomorphological and land use framework that builds on the hillslope as the basic unit. Interpolation and extrapolation beyond specific sites relies on geophysical surveying, remote sensing, geomorphic analysis, the study of natural integrators such as streams, groundwaters or air, and application of a suite of CZ models. We hypothesize that measurements of a few important variables at strategic locations within a geomorphological framework will allow development of predictive models of CZ behavior. In turn, the measurements and models will reveal how the larger watershed will respond to perturbations both now and into the future.

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5. Evaluation of bias correction methods for current and future RCM projections in hydrological regional applications

   https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10600  

   Brighenti, T. ; Gassman, P. ; Gutowski, W. ; Thompson, J. ( May 2022 , European Union General Assembly 2022 Abstracts)

   RCMs produced at ~0.5° (available in the NA-CORDEX database esgf-node.ipsl.upmc.fr/search/cordex-ipsl/) address issues related to coarse resolution of GCMs (produced at 2° to 4°). Nevertheless, due to systematic and random model errors, bias correction is needed for regional study applications. However, an acceptable threshold for magnitude of bias correction that will not affect future RCM projection behavior is unknown. The goal of this study is to evaluate the implications of a bias correction technique (distribution mapping) for four GCM-RCM combinations for simulating regional precipitation and, subsequently, streamflow, surface runoff, and water yield when integrated into Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) applications for the Des Moines River basin (31,893 km²) in Iowa-Minnesota, U.S. The climate projections tested in this study are an ensemble of 2 GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR and GFDL-ESM2M) and 2 RCMs (WRF and RegCM4) for historical (1981-2005) and future (2030-2050) projections in the NA-CORDEX CMIP5 archive. The PRISM dataset was used for bias correction of GCM-RCM historical precipitation and for SWAT baseline simulations. We found bias correction improves historical total annual volumes for precipitation, seasonality, spatial distribution and mean error for all GCM-RCM combinations. However, improvement of correlation coefficient occurred only for the RegCM4 simulations. Monthly precipitation was overestimated formore »all raw models from January to April, and WRF overestimated monthly precipitation from January to August. The bias correction method improved monthly average precipitation for all four GCM-RCM combinations. The ability to detect occurrence of precipitation events was slightly better for the raw models, especially for the GCM-WRF combinations. Simulated historical streamflow was compared across 26 monitoring stations: Historical GCM-RCM outputs were unable to replicate PRISM KGE statistical results (KGE>0.5). However, the Pbias streamflow results matched the PRISM simulation for all bias-corrected models and for the raw GFDL-RegCM4 combination. For future scenarios there was no change in the annual trend, except for raw WRF models that estimated an increase of about 35% in annual precipitation. Seasonal variability remained the same, indicating wetter summers and drier winters. However, most models predicted an increase in monthly precipitation from January to March, and a reduction in June and July (except for raw WRF models). The impact on hydrological simulations based on future projected conditions was observed for surface runoff and water yield. Both variables were characterized by monthly volume overestimation; the raw WRF models predicted up to three times greater volume compared to the historical run. RegCM4 projected increased surface runoff and water yield for winter and spring by two times, and a slight volume reduction in summer and autumn. Meanwhile, the bias-corrected models showed changes in prediction signals: In some cases, raw models projected an increase in surface runoff and water yield but the bias-corrected models projected a reduction of these variables. These findings underscore the need for more extended research on bias correction and transposition between historical and future data.« less