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Abstract This study proposed a framework to evaluate multivariate return periods of hurricanes using event‐based frequency analysis techniques. The applicability of the proposed framework was demonstrated using point‐based and spatial analyses on a recent catastrophic event, Hurricane Ian. Univariate, bivariate, and trivariate frequency analyses were performed by applying generalized extreme value distribution and copula on annual maximum series of flood volume, peak discharge, total rainfall depth, maximum wind speed, wave height and storm surge. As a result of point‐based analyses, return periods of Hurricane Ian was investigated by using our framework; univariate return periods were estimated from 39.2 to 60.2 years, bivariate from 824.1 to 1,592.6 years, and trivariate from 332.1 to 1,722.9 years for the Daytona‐St. Augustine Basin. In the Florida Bay‐Florida Keys Basin, univariate return periods were calculated from 7.5 to 32.9 years, bivariate from 36.5 to 114.9 years, and trivariate from 25.0 to 214.8 years. Using the spatial analyses, we were able to generate the return period map of Hurricane Ian across Florida. Based on bivariate frequency analyses, 18% of hydrologic unit code 8 (HUC8) basins had an average return period of more than 30 years. Sources of uncertainty, due to the scarcity of analysis data, stationarity assumption and impact of other weather systems such as strong frontal passages, were also discussed. Despite these limitations, our framework and results will be valuable in disaster response and recovery.
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Comparison of Local, Regional, and Scaling Models for Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Analysis
Abstract Intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) analyses of rainfall extremes provide critical information to mitigate, manage, and adapt to urban flooding. The accuracy and uncertainty of IDF analyses depend on the availability of historical rainfall records, which are more accessible at daily resolution and, quite often, are very sparse in developing countries. In this work, we quantify performances of different IDF models as a function of the number of available high-resolution (Nτ) and daily (N24h) rain gauges. For this aim, we apply a cross-validation framework that is based on Monte Carlo bootstrapping experiments on records of 223 high-resolution gauges in central Arizona. We test five IDF models based on (two) local, (one) regional, and (two) scaling frequency analyses of annual rainfall maxima from 30-min to 24-h durations with the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. All models exhibit similar performances in simulating observed quantiles associated with return periods up to 30 years. When Nτ > 10, local and regional models have the best accuracy; bias correcting the GEV shape parameter for record length is recommended to estimate quantiles for large return periods. The uncertainty of all models, evaluated via Monte Carlo experiments, is very large when Nτ ≤ 5; however, if N24h ≥ 10 additional daily gauges are available, the uncertainty is greatly reduced and accuracy is increased by applying simple scaling models, which infer estimates on subdaily rainfall statistics from information at daily scale. For all models, performances depend on the ability to capture the elevation control on their parameters. Although our work is site specific, its results provide insights to conduct future IDF analyses, especially in regions with sparse data.
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- PAR ID:
- 10194664
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
- Volume:
- 59
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 1558-8424
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1519 to 1536
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-20-0094.1
