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Summary A common concern when trying to draw causal inferences from observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding. In practice, many of the covariates may only be proxies of the latent confounding mechanism. Recent work has shown that in certain settings where the standard no-unmeasured-confounding assumption fails, proxy variables can be leveraged to identify causal effects. Results currently exist for the total causal effect of an intervention, but little consideration has been given to learning about the direct or indirect pathways of the effect through a mediator variable. In this work, we describe three separate proximal identification results for natural direct and indirect effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. We then develop a semiparametric framework for inference on natural direct and indirect effects, which leads us to locally efficient, multiply robust estimators.
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Costs of energy efficiency mandates can reverse the sign of rebound
Improvements in energy efficiency reduce the cost of consuming services from household cars and appliances and can result in a positive rebound effect that offsets part of the direct energy savings. We use a general equilibrium model to derive analytical expressions that allow us to compare rebound effects from a costless technology shock (CTS) to those from a costly energy efficiency standard (EES). We decompose each total effect on the use of energy into a direct efficiency effect, direct rebound effect, and indirect rebound effect. We show which factors determine the sign and magnitude of each. Rebound from a CTS is generally positive, as in prior literature, but we also show how a pre-existing EES can negate the direct energy savings from the CTS – leaving only the positive rebound effect on energy use. Then we analyze increased stringency of an EES, and we show exactly when the increased costs reverse the sign of rebound. Using plausible parameter values in this model, we find that indirect effects can outweigh the direct effects captured in partial equilibrium models, and that the total rebound from a costly EES can be negative.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1934869
- PAR ID:
- 10195693
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Journal of public economics
- Volume:
- 188
- ISSN:
- 1879-2316
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3386/w25696
