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Abstract Boreal forests of Alaska and Western Canada are experiencing rapid climate change characterized by higher temperatures, more extreme droughts, and changing disturbance regimes, resulting in forest mortality and composition changes. Mechanistic models are increasingly important for predicting future forest trends as the region experiences novel environmental change. Previously, many process-based models have generated starting conditions by ‘spinning up’ to equilibrium. However, setting appropriate initial conditions remains a persistent challenge in using mechanistic forest models, where stochastic events and latent parameters governing tree establishment have long-lasting impacts on simulation outcomes. Recent advances in remote sensing analysis provide information that can help address this issue. We updated an individual-based gap model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to include initial conditions derived from aerial and satellite imagery at two locations. Following these updates, material legacies (e.g. trees, seed banks, soil organic layer) allowed new forest types to persist in UVAFME simulations, landscape-level forest heterogeneity increased, and forest-wide biomass estimates increased. At both study sites, initialization from remotely sensed data had a strong impact on forest cover and volume. Climate change impacts were simulated decades earlier than when the model was ‘spun up’. In Alaska’s Tanana Valley State Forest, warmer climate scenarios drove deciduous expansion, increased drought stress, and resulted in a 28% decrease in overall biomass by 2100 between historical and high emissions climate scenarios. At a lowland site in Northern British Columbia, lodgepole pine(Pinus contorta)remained dominant and became more productive with exogenous climate forcing as temperature, nutrient, and flooding limitations decreased. These case studies demonstrate a new framework for forest modeling and emphasize the advantages of integrating remotely sensed data with mechanistic models, thereby laying groundwork for future research that explores near-term impacts of non-stationary ecological change.
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Walking through the forests of the future: using data-driven virtual reality to visualize forests under climate change
Communicating and understanding climate induced environmental changes can be challenging, especially using traditional representations such as graphs, maps or photos. Immersive visualizations and experiences offer an intuitive, visceral approach to otherwise rather abstract concepts, but creating them scientifically is challenging. In this paper, we linked ecological modeling, procedural modeling, and virtual reality to provide an immersive experience of a future forest. We mapped current tree species composition in northern Wisconsin using the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data and then forecast forest change 50 years into the future under two climate scenarios using LANDIS-II, a spatially-explicit, mechanistic simulation model. We converted the model output (e.g., tree biomass) into parameters required for 3D visualizations with analytical modeling. Procedural rules allowed us to efficiently and reproducibly translate the parameters into a simulated forest. Data visualization, environment exploration, and information retrieval were realized using the Unreal Engine. A system evaluation with experts in ecology provided positive feedback and future topics for a comprehensive ecosystem visualization and analysis approach. Our approach to create visceral experiences of forests under climate change can facilitate communication among experts, policy-makers, and the general public.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1617396
- PAR ID:
- 10201313
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- International Journal of Geographical Information Science
- ISSN:
- 1365-8816
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 24
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1080/13658816.2020.1830997
