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In this study, we present a nationwide machine learning model for hourly PM2.5 estimation for the continental United States (US) using high temporal resolution Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES-16) Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) data, meteorological variables from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and ancillary data collected between May 2017 and December 2020. A model sensitivity analysis was conducted on predictor variables to determine the optimal model. It turns out that GOES16 AOD, variables from ECMWF, and ancillary data are effective variables in PM2.5 estimation and historical reconstruction, which achieves an average mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.0 μg/m3, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.8 μg/m3. This study also found that the model performance as well as the site measured PM2.5 concentrations demonstrate strong spatial and temporal patterns. Specifically, in the temporal scale, the model performed best between 8:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. (UTC TIME) and had the highest coefficient of determination (R2) in Autumn and the lowest MAE and RMSE in Spring. In the spatial scale, the analysis results based on ancillary data show that the R2 scores correlate positively with the mean measured PM2.5 concentration at monitoring sites. Mean measured PM2.5 concentrations are positively correlated with population density and negatively correlated with elevation. Water, forests, and wetlands are associated with low PM2.5 concentrations, whereas developed, cultivated crops, shrubs, and grass are associated with high PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, the reconstructed PM2.5 surfaces serve as an important data source for pollution event tracking and PM2.5 analysis. For this purpose, from May 2017 to December 2020, hourly PM2.5 estimates were made for 10 km by 10 km and the PM2.5 estimates from August through November 2020 during the period of California Santa Clara Unite (SCU) Lightning Complex fires are presented. Based on the quantitative and visualization results, this study reveals that a number of large wildfires in California had a profound impact on the value and spatial-temporal distributions of PM2.5 concentrations.
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Community-Based Measurements Reveal Unseen Differences during Air Pollution Episodes
Short-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is linked to numerous adverse health effects. Pollution episodes, such as wildfires, can lead to substantial increases in PM2.5 levels. However, sparse regulatory measurements provide an incomplete understanding of pollution gradients. Here, we demonstrate an infrastructure that integrates community-based measurements from a network of low-cost PM2.5 sensors with rigorous calibration and a Gaussian process model to understand neighborhood-scale PM2.5 concentrations during three pollution episodes (July 4, 2018, fireworks; July 5 and 6, 2018, wildfire; Jan 3−7, 2019, persistent cold air pool, PCAP). The firework/wildfire events included 118 sensors in 84 locations, while the PCAP event included 218 sensors in 138 locations. The model results accurately predict reference measurements during the fireworks (n: 16, hourly root-mean-square error, RMSE, 12.3−21.5 μg/m3, n(normalized)-RMSE: 9−24%), the wildfire (n: 46, RMSE: 2.6−4.0 μg/m3; nRMSE: 13.1−22.9%), and the PCAP (n: 96, RMSE: 4.9−5.7 μg/m3; nRMSE: 20.2−21.3%). They also revealed dramatic geospatial differences in PM2.5 concentrations that are not apparent when only considering government measurements or viewing the US Environmental Protection Agency’s AirNow’s visualizations. Complementing the PM2.5 estimates and visualizations are highly resolved uncertainty maps. Together, these results illustrate the potential for low-cost sensor networks that combined with a data-fusion algorithm and appropriate calibration and training can dynamically and with improved accuracy estimate PM2.5 concentrations during pollution episodes. These highly resolved uncertainty estimates can provide a much-needed strategy to communicate uncertainty to end users.
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- PAR ID:
- 10207574
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Science & Technology
- ISSN:
- 0013-936X
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.0c02341
