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  • Accepted Manuscript: Rotated Spectral Principal Component Analysis (rsPCA) for Identifying Dynamical Modes of Variability in Climate Systems
Title: Rotated Spectral Principal Component Analysis (rsPCA) for Identifying Dynamical Modes of Variability in Climate Systems
Abstract Spectral PCA (sPCA), in contrast to classical PCA, offers the advantage of identifying organized spatiotemporal patterns within specific frequency bands and extracting dynamical modes. However, the unavoidable trade-off between frequency resolution and robustness of the PCs leads to high sensitivity to noise and overfitting, which limits the interpretation of the sPCA results. We propose herein a simple nonparametric implementation of sPCA using the continuous analytic Morlet wavelet as a robust estimator of the cross-spectral matrices with good frequency resolution. To improve the interpretability of the results, especially when several modes of similar amplitude exist within the same frequency band, we propose a rotation of the complex-valued eigenvectors to optimize their spatial regularity (smoothness). The developed method, called rotated spectral PCA (rsPCA), is tested on synthetic data simulating propagating waves and shows impressive performance even with high levels of noise in the data. Applied to global historical geopotential height (GPH) and sea surface temperature (SST) daily time series, the method accurately captures patterns of atmospheric Rossby waves at high frequencies (3–60-day periods) in both GPH and SST and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at low frequencies (2–7-yr periodicity) in SST. At high frequencies the rsPCA successfully unmixes the identified waves, revealing more » spatially coherent patterns with robust propagation dynamics. « less
Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Award ID(s):
1928724 1839336 1839441 1735040
Publication Date:
NSF-PAR ID:
10209943
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Volume:
34
Issue:
2
Page Range or eLocation-ID:
715 to 736
ISSN:
0894-8755
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
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