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1. Use of alternative water sources in irrigation: potential scales, costs, and environmental impacts in California

   https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ab915e  

   Qin, Yuwei ; Horvath, Arpad ( May 2020 , Environmental Research Communications)

   Under the risk of drought, unreliable water supplies, and growing water demand, there is a growing need worldwide to explore alternative water sources to meet the demand for irrigation in agriculture and other outdoor activities. This paper estimates stocks, production capacities, economic costs, energy implications, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with recycled water, desalinated brackish and seawater, and stormwater in California, the largest US state and the most significant fresh and processed food producer. The combined recycled water and stormwater supply could increase the share of alternative water use in urban land irrigation (parks and golf courses) from the current rate of 4.6% to 48% and in agriculture from 0.82% to 5.4% while increasing annual water costs by $900 million (1.8% of California’s annual agricultural revenue) and energy use by 710 GWh (0.28% of California’s annual electricity consumption). The annual supply of alternative water greatly exceeds the amount of water currently used in the food processing industry. In case studies of high-value agricultural produce, conventional water use was found to contribute approximately 17%, 12%, 4.1%, and 1.7% to the total GHG emissions of avocados, lemons, celery, and strawberries, respectively. However, materials (mostly packaging) contribute 46%, 26%, 47%, andmore »66%, and diesel use on farms 18%, 28%, and 14% for lemons, celery, and strawberries, respectively (data for avocados were not available). Switching to recycled water or stormwater would increase the total GHG emissions of one serving size of packaged strawberries, celery, lemons, and avocados by 3.0%, 7.8%, 11%, and 27%, respectively, desalinated brackish water by 23%, 58%, 150%, and 210%, and desalinated seawater by 35%, 88%, 230%, and 320%. Though switching to alternative water will increase costs, energy demand, and GHG emissions, they could be offset by turning to less environmentally damaging materials in agricultural production and sales (especially packaging).

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2. Water shortage risks from perennial crop expansion in California’s Central Valley

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4035  

   Mall, Natalie K. ; Herman, Jonathan D. ( October 2019 , Environmental Research Letters)

   California’s Central Valley is one of the world’s most productive agricultural regions. Its high-value fruit, vegetable, and nut crops rely on surface water imports from a vast network of reservoirs and canals as well as groundwater, which has been substantially overdrafted to support irrigation. The region has undergone a shift to perennial (tree and vine) crops in recent decades, which has increased water demand amid a series of severe droughts and emerging regulations on groundwater pumping. This study quantifies the expansion of perennial crops in the Tulare Lake Basin, the southern region of the Central Valley with limited natural water availability. A gridded crop type dataset is compiled on a 1 mi²spatial resolution from a historical database of pesticide permits over the period 1974–2016 and validated against aggregated county-level data. This spatial dataset is then analyzed by irrigation district, the primary spatial scale at which surface water supplies are determined, to identify trends in planting decisions and agricultural water demand over time. Perennial crop acreage has nearly tripled over this period, and currently accounts for roughly 60% of planted area and 80% of annual revenue. These trends show little relationship with water availability and have been driven primarily bymore »market demand. From this data, we focus on the increasing minimum irrigation needs each year to sustain perennial crops. Results indicate that under a range of plausible future regulations on groundwater pumping ranging from 10% to 50%, water supplies may fail to consistently meet demands, increasing losses by up to 30% of annual revenues. More broadly, the datasets developed in this work will support the development of dynamic models of the integrated water-agriculture system under uncertain climate and regulatory changes to understand the combined impacts of water supply shortages and intensifying irrigation demand.

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3. Water rights shape crop yield and revenue volatility tradeoffs for adaptation in snow dependent systems

   https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17219-z  

   Malek, Keyvan ; Reed, Patrick ; Adam, Jennifer ; Karimi, Tina ; Brady, Michael ( July 2020 , Nature Communications)

   Irrigated agriculture in snow-dependent regions contributes significantly to global food production. This study quantifies the impacts of climate change on irrigated agriculture in the snow-dependent Yakima River Basin (YRB) in the Pacific Northwest United States. Here we show that increasingly severe droughts and temperature driven reductions in growing season significantly reduces expected annual agricultural productivity. The overall reduction in mean annual productivity also dampens interannual yield variability, limiting yield-driven revenue fluctuations. Our findings show that farmers who adapt to climate change by planting improved crop varieties may potentially increase their expected mean annaul productivity in an altered climate, but remain strongly vulnerable to irrigation water shortages that substantially increase interannual yield variability (i.e., increasing revenue volatility). Our results underscore the importance for crop adaptation strategies to simultaneously capture the biophysical effects of warming as well as the institutional controls on water availability.
4. Influence of seasonal climatic water deficit and crop prices on rainfed crop grain harvest, repurposing, and abandonment in the western U.S.A.

   https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acceb8  

   Lauffenburger, Zachary H. ; Maneta, Marco P. ; Miller, Perry ; Kimball, John S. ( April 2023 , Environmental Research Letters)

   Increasing climate aridity and drought, exacerbated by global warming, are increasing risks for western United States of America (U.S.A.) rainfed farming, and challenging producers’ capacity to maintain production and profitability. With agricultural water demand in the region exceeding limited supplies and fewer opportunities to develop new water sources, rainfed agriculture is under increasing pressure to meet the nation’s growing food demands. This study examines three major western U.S.A. rainfed crops: barley, spring wheat, and winter wheat. We analyzed the relationship between crop repurposing (the ratio of acres harvested for grain to the total planted acres) to seasonal climatic water deficit (CWD). To isolate the climate signal from economic factors, our analysis accounted for the influence of crop prices on grain harvest. We used historical climate and agricultural data between 1958 and 2020 to model crop repurposing (e.g. forage) across the observed CWD record using a fixed effect model. Our methodology is applicable for any region and incorporates regional differences in farming and economic drivers. Our results indicate that farmers are less likely to harvest barley and spring wheat for grain when the spring CWD is above average. Of the major winter wheat growing regions, only the Northern High Plainsmore »in Texas showed a trend of decreasing grain harvest during high CWD. For the majority of major crop growing regions, grain prices increased with lower levels of grain harvest. Interestingly, winter wheat repurposing is significantly higher in the southern Great Plains (∼50% harvested for grain) compared to the rest of the West (∼90%). Our results highlight that the major barley and spring wheat regions’ grain harvests are vulnerable to high spring CWD and low summer CWD, while winter wheat grain harvest is unaffected by variable CWD in most of the West.

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5. Agricultural Irrigation Effects on Hydrological Processes in the United States Northern High Plains Aquifer Simulated by the Coupled SWAT-MODFLOW System

   https://doi.org/10.3390/w14121938  

   Dangol, Sijal ; Zhang, Xuesong ; Liang, Xin-Zhong ; Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando ( June 2022 , Water)

   Groundwater use for irrigation has a major influence on agricultural productivity and local water resources. This study evaluated the groundwater irrigation schemes, SWAT auto-irrigation scheduling based on plant water stress (Auto-Irr), and prescribed irrigation based on well pumping rates in MODFLOW (Well-Irr), in the U.S. Northern High Plains (NHP) aquifer using coupled SWAT-MODFLOW model simulations for the period 1982–2008. Auto-Irr generally performed better than Well-Irr in simulating groundwater irrigation volume (reducing the mean bias from 86 to −30%) and groundwater level (reducing the normalized root-mean-square-error from 13.55 to 12.47%) across the NHP, as well as streamflow interannual variations at two stations (increasing NSE from 0.51, 0.51 to 0.55, 0.53). We also examined the effects of groundwater irrigation on the water cycle. Based on simulation results from Auto-Irr, historical irrigation led to significant recharge along the Elkhorn and Platte rivers. On average over the entire NHP, irrigation increased surface runoff, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and groundwater recharge by 21.3%, 4.0%, 2.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Irrigation improved crop water productivity by nearly 27.2% for corn and 23.8% for soybean. Therefore, designing sustainable irrigation practices to enhance crop productivity must consider both regional landscape characteristics and downstream hydrological consequences.