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Post-fire flooding and debris flows are often triggered by increased overland flow resulting from wildfire impacts on soil infiltration capacity and surface roughness. Increasing wildfire activity and intensification of precipitation with climate change make improving understanding of post-fire overland flow a particularly pertinent task. Hydrologic signatures, which are metrics that summarize the hydrologic regime of watersheds using rainfall and runoff time series, can be calculated for large samples of watersheds relatively easily to understand post-fire hydrologic processes. We demonstrate that signatures designed specifically for overland flow reflect changes to overland flow processes with wildfire that align with previous case studies on burned watersheds. For example, signatures suggest increases in infiltration-excess overland flow and decrease in saturation-excess overland flow in the first and second years after wildfire in the majority of watersheds examined. We show that climate, watershed and wildfire attributes can predict either post-fire signatures of overland flow or changes in signature values with wildfire using machine learning. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), air temperature, amount of developed/undeveloped land, soil thickness and clay content were the most used predictors by well-performing machine learning models. Signatures of overland flow provide a streamlined approach for characterizing and understanding post-fire overland flow, which is beneficial for watershed managers who must rapidly assess and mitigate the risk of post-fire hydrologic hazards after wildfire occurs.
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Sensitivity of dryland vegetation patterns to storm characteristics
Ecohydrological phenomena are o ften multiscale in nature, with behavioTur that emerges from the interaction of tightly coupled systems having characteristic timescales that differ by orders of magnitude. Models address these differences using timescale separation methods, where each system is held in psuedo‐steady state while the other evolves. When the computational demands of solving the ‘fast’ system are large, this strategy can become numerically intractable. Here, we use emulation modelling to accelerate the simulation of a computationally intensive ‘fast’ system: overland flow. We focus on dryland ecosystems in which storms generate overland flow, on timescales of 101 − 2 s. In these ecosystems, overland flow delivers crucial water inputs to vegetation, which grows and disperses ‘slowly’, on timescales of 107 − 9 s. Emulation allows for a physically realistic treatment of flow, advancing on phenomenological descriptions used in previous studies. Resolving the within‐storm processes reveals novel dynamics, including new transition pathways from patchy vegetation to desertification, that are specifically controlled by storm processes.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1632494
- PAR ID:
- 10211702
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Ecohydrology
- ISSN:
- 2522-8250
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e2269
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/doi.org/10.1002/eco.2269
