Abstract AimAbundance–occupancy relationships posit that more locally abundant species occupy more sites than less abundant species. Although widely supported, the occurrence and detection of abundance–occupancy relationships is sensitive to sampling and detection processes. Data from large‐scale standardized sampling efforts are key to address abundance–occupancy relationships. We aimed to use such a dataset to evaluate the occurrence of abundance–occupancy relationships across different spatial grains and over time for aquatic and terrestrial taxa. LocationUSA. Time period2014–2019. Major taxa studiedBirds, mammals, beetles, ticks, fishes, macroinvertebrates and zooplankton. MethodsSpecies abundance and occupancy data were obtained from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). Species mean abundance and occupancy (fraction of sampled locations that were occupied) were estimated for three different spatial grains (i.e., plot, site and domain) for all years sampled. Linear models were used to explore the consistency of interspecific abundance–occupancy relationships. The slope coefficients of these models were related to temporal and spatial variables and to species richness while controlling for taxa in a linear mixed‐effects model (LMM) framework. ResultsWe found evidence for positive abundance–occupancy relationships across the three spatial grains and over time for all taxa we studied. However, our linear models had low explanatory power, suggesting that relationships, although general, were weak. Abundance–occupancy relationships were slightly stronger at the smallest spatial grain than at the largest spatial grain, but showed no detectable change over time for any taxa. Finally, species richness was not associated with the strength of these relationships. Main conclusionsTogether, our results suggest that positive interspecific abundance–occupancy relationships are fairly general but are not capable of explaining substantial variation in spatial patterns of abundance, and that other factors, such as species traits and niche, are also likely to influence these relationships.
more »
« less
Occupancy models reveal regional differences in detectability and improve relative abundance estimations in fossil pollen assemblages.
The late Quaternary fossil record provides crucial data that demonstrate how organisms respond to climate change. These records have been used to great effect, demonstrating that no-analog communities frequently occur during periods of no-analog climate, and that taxa demonstrate individualistic responses to change. However, our efforts to reconstruct biotic responses to environmental change are frequently hampered by inconsistent sampling and differential preservation of fossil taxa. We leveraged occupancy modeling methods and the fossil pollen record across eastern North America to identify circumstances under which occupancy modeling improves our ability to estimate relative abundance in four pollen taxa (Cornus, Fagus, Picea, and Pinus) through time (15 kya to present) and to identify localities where data are unreliable reflections of the local community. We found that integrating observed pollen abundance and detectability improves model performance. Low genus richness and large basin area were consistently important determinants of low detection. Our occupancy models were most informative for taxa with high enough variation in observed pollen abundance for models to be adequately calibrated. We combined occupancy model estimates of pollen abundance and detectability with a Getis-Ord statistical approach to identify spatial clusters of high or low detectability, identifying regions where a taxon’s pollen is more (or less) reliable. This work will advance the integration of ecological and paleontological sciences by allowing us to better identify whether a pollen taxon is truly absent from a fossil site or if it has simply gone undetected, allowing us to produce more robust paleoecological models. This approach will bolster our ability to identify the responses of plant communities to past climatic and anthropogenic change so that we can improve our predictions of future responses.
more »
« less
- PAR ID:
- 10212296
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Quaternary science reviews
- Volume:
- 253
- ISSN:
- 0277-3791
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 106747
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
More Like this
-
-
null (Ed.)Benthic animals profoundly influence the cycling and storage of carbon and other elements in marine systems, particularly in coastal sediments. Recent climate change has altered the distribution and abundance of many seafloor taxa and modified the vertical exchange of materials between ocean and sediment layers. Here, we examine how climate change could alter animal-mediated biogeochemical cycling in ocean sediments. The fossil record shows repeated major responses from the benthos during mass extinctions and global carbon perturbations, including reduced diversity, dominance of simple trace fossils, decreased burrow size and bioturbation intensity, and nonrandom extinction of trophic groups. The broad dispersal capacity of many extant benthic species facilitates poleward shifts corresponding to their environmental niche as overlying water warms. Evidence suggests that locally persistent populations will likely respond to environmental shifts through either failure to respond or genetic adaptation rather than via phenotypic plasticity. Regional and global ocean models insufficiently integrate changes in benthic biological activity and their feedbacks on sedimentary biogeochemical processes. The emergence of bioturbation, ventilation, and seafloor-habitat maps and progress in our mechanistic understanding of organism–sediment interactions enable incorporation of potential effects of climate change on benthic macrofaunal mediation of elemental cycles into regional and global ocean biogeochemical models.more » « less
-
Benthic animals profoundly influence the cycling and storage of carbon and other elements in marine systems, particularly in coastal sediments. Recent climate change has altered the distribution and abundance of many seafloor taxa and modified the vertical exchange of materials between ocean and sediment layers. Here, we examine how climate change could alter animal-mediated biogeochemical cycling in ocean sediments.The fossil record shows repeated major responses from the benthos during mass extinctions and global carbon perturbations, including reduced diversity, dominance of simple trace fossils, decreased burrow size and bioturbation intensity, and nonrandom extinction of trophic groups. The broad dispersal capacity of many extant benthic species facilitates poleward shifts corresponding to their environmental niche as overlying water warms. Evidence suggests that locally persistent populations will likely respond to environmental shifts through either failure to respond or genetic adaptation rather than via phenotypic plasticity. Regional and global ocean models insufficiently integrate changes in benthic biological activity and their feedbacks on sedimentary biogeochemical processes. The emergence of bioturbation, ventilation, and seafloor-habitat maps and progress in our mechanistic understanding of organism–sediment interactions enable incorporation of potential effects of climate change on benthic macrofaunal mediation of elemental cycles into regional and global ocean biogeochemical models.more » « less
-
Huang, Huasheng (Ed.)The fossil record of the U.S. Pacific Northwest preserves many Middle Miocene floras with potential for revealing long-term climate-vegetation dynamics during the Miocene Climatic Optimum. However, the possibility of strong, eccentricity-paced climate oscillations and concurrent, intense volcanism may obscure the signature of prevailing, long-term Miocene climate change. To test the hypothesis that volcanic disturbance drove Middle Miocene vegetation dynamics, high-resolution, stratigraphic pollen records and other paleobotanical data from nine localities of the Sucker Creek Formation were combined with sedimentological and geochemical evidence of disturbance within an updated chronostratigraphic framework based on new U-Pb zircon ages from tuffs. The new ages establish a refined, minimum temporal extent of the Sucker Creek Formation, ~15.8 to ~14.8 Ma, and greatly revise the local and regional chronostratigraphic correlations of its dispersed outcrop belt. Our paleoecological analysis at one ~15.52 Ma locality reveals two abrupt shifts in pollen spectra coinciding with the deposition of thick ash-flow tuffs, wherein vegetation dominated by Cupressaceae/Taxaceae, probably representing aGlyptostrobus oregonensisswamp, and upland conifers was supplanted by early-successional forests with abundantAlnusandBetula. Another ephemeral shift from Cupressaceae/Taxaceae swamp taxa in favor of upland conifersPinusandTsugacorrelates with a shift from low-Ti shale to high-Ti claystone, suggesting a link between altered surface hydrology and vegetation. In total, three rapid vegetation shifts coincide with ash-flow tuffs and are attributed to volcanic disturbance. Longer-term variability between localities, spanning ~1 Myr of the Miocene Climatic Optimum, is chiefly attributed to eccentricity-paced climate change. Overall, Succor Creek plant associations changed frequently over ≤105years timespans, reminiscent of Quaternary vegetation records. Succor Creek stratigraphic palynology suggests that numerous and extensive collection of stratigraphically controlled samples is necessary to understand broader vegetation trends through time.more » « less
-
Abstract AimBiogeographers have used three primary data types to examine shifts in tree ranges in response to past climate change: fossil pollen, genetic data and contemporary occurrences. Although recent efforts have explored formal integration of these types of data, we have limited understanding of how integration affects estimates of range shift rates and their uncertainty. We compared estimates of biotic velocity (i.e. rate of species' range shifts) using each data type independently to estimates obtained using integrated models. LocationEastern North America. TaxonFraxinus pennsylvanicaMarshall (green ash). MethodsUsing fossil pollen, genomic data and modern occurrence data, we estimated biotic velocities directly from 24 species distribution models (SDMs) and 200 pollen surfaces created with a novel Bayesian spatio‐temporal model. We compared biotic velocity from these analyses to estimates based on coupled demographic‐coalescent simulations and Approximate Bayesian Computation that combined fossil pollen and SDMs with population genomic data collected across theF. pennsylvanicarange. ResultsPatterns and magnitude of biotic velocity over time varied by the method used to estimate past range dynamics. Estimates based on fossil pollen yielded the highest rates of range movement. Overall, integrating genetic data with other data types in our simulation‐based framework reduced apparent uncertainty in biotic velocity estimates and resulted in greater similarity in estimates between SDM‐ and pollen‐integrated analyses. Main ConclusionsBy reducing uncertainty in our assessments of range shifts, integration of data types improves our understanding of the past distribution of species. Based on these results, we propose further steps to reach the integration of these three lines of biogeographical evidence into a unified analytical framework.more » « less
An official website of the United States government

