Climate change impacts the electric power system by affecting both the load and generation. It is paramount to understand this impact in the context of renewable energy as their market share has increased and will continue to grow. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the supply of renewable energy through applying novel metrics of intermittency, power production and storage required by the renewable energy plants as a function of historical climate data variability. Here we focus on and compare two disparate locations, Palma de Mallorca in the Balearic Islands and Cordova, Alaska. The main results of this analysis of wind, solar radiation and precipitation over the 1950–2020 period show that climate change impacts both the total supply available and its variability. Importantly, this impact is found to vary significantly with location. This analysis demonstrates the feasibility of a process to evaluate the local optimal mix of renewables, the changing needs for energy storage as well as the ability to evaluate the impact on grid reliability regarding both penetration of the increasing renewable resources and changes in the variability of the resource. This framework can be used to quantify the impact on both transmission grids and microgrids and can guide possible mitigation paths.
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Valuing the Capacity Contribution of Renewable Energy Systems with Storage.
The growth of renewable energy technologies creates significant challenges for the stability of the system because of their intermittency. Nonetheless, we can value these technologies with storage systems. We model the supply by a renewable technology, wind, into a storage facility using the leaky bucket mechanism. The bucket is synonymous with storage while the leakage is equivalent to meeting load. Modelica is used to capture: (i) the time-dependence of the state of the bucket based on a physical model of storage; (ii) the stochastic representation of wind energy using wind speed data that is fed into a physical model of a wind technology; and (iii) the load, modeled as a resistor-inductor circuit. The strength of Modelica in using non-causal equations for basic sub-systems that are linked together is harnessed through its libraries. We find that there is a diminishing return to storage. Beyond a certain level of storage, the integration of a reliable baseload power supply is required to diminish the risk due to reduced reliability. The need for storage systems as a hedge against intermittency is dependent on the interplay between the supply volatilities and the stochastic load to guarantee an acceptable level of quality of service and reliability.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1847077
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10212936
- Editor(s):
- L. Cromarty, R. Shirwaiker
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- IISE transactions
- ISSN:
- 2472-5854
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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