skip to main content


Title: High resolution proximity statistics as early warning for US universities reopening during COVID-19
Reopening of colleges and universities for the Fall semester of 2020 across the United States has caused signi ficant COVID-19 case spikes, requiring reactive responses such as temporary closures and switching to online learning. Until sufficient levels of immunity are reached through vaccination, Institutions of Higher Education will need to balance academic operations with COVID-19 spread risk within and outside the student community. In this work, we study the impact of proximity statistics obtained from high resolution mobility traces in predicting case rate surges in university counties. We focus on 50 land-grant university counties (LGUCs) across the country and show high correlation (PCC > 0.6) between proximity statistics and COVID-19 case rates for several LGUCs during the period around Fall 2020 reopenings. These observations provide a lead time of up to 3 weeks in preparing resources and planning containment efforts. We also show how features such as total population, population affiliated with university, median income and case rate intensity could explain some of the observed high correlation. We believe these easily explainable mobility metrics along with other disease surveillance indicators can help universities be better prepared for the Spring 2021 semester.  more » « less
Award ID(s):
1633028 1443054 1916805 1918656 2028004 2027541
NSF-PAR ID:
10213772
Author(s) / Creator(s):
; ; ; ; ; ;
Date Published:
Journal Name:
medRxiv
Format(s):
Medium: X
Sponsoring Org:
National Science Foundation
More Like this
  1. High resolution mobility datasets have become increasingly available in the past few years and have enabled detailed models for infectious disease spread including those for COVID-19. However, there are open questions on how such a mobility data can be used effectively within epidemic models and for which tasks they are best suited. In this paper, we extract a number of graph-based proximity metrics from high resolution cellphone trace data from X-Mode and use it to study COVID-19 epidemic spread in 50 land grant university counties in the US. We present an approach to estimate the effect of mobility on cases by fitting an ODE based model and performing multivariate linear regression to explain the estimated time varying transmissibility. We find that, while mobility plays a significant role, the contribution is heterogeneous across the counties, as exemplified by a subsequent correlation analysis. We subsequently evaluate the metrics’ utility for case surge prediction defined as a supervised classification problem, and show that the learnt model can predict surges with 95% accuracy and 87% F1-score. 
    more » « less
  2. null (Ed.)
    This work quanti es mobility changes observed during the di erent phases of the pandemic world-wide at multiple resolutions { county, state, country { using an anonymized aggregate mobility map that captures population ows between geographic cells of size 5 km2. As we overlay the global mobility map with epidemic incidence curves and dates of government interventions, we observe that as case counts rose, mobility fell and has since then seen a slow but steady increase in ows. Further, in order to understand mixing within a region, we propose a new metric to quantify the e ect of social distancing on the basis of mobility.Taking two very di erent countries sampled from the global spectrum, We analyze in detail the mobility patterns of the United States (US) and India. We then carry out a counterfactual analysis of delaying the lockdown and show that a one week delay would have doubled the reported number of cases in the US and India. Finally, we quantify the e ect of college students returning back to school for the fall semester on COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community. We employ the data from a recent university outbreak (reported on August 16, 2020) to infer possible Re values and mobility ows combined with daily prevalence data and census data to obtain an estimate of new cases that might arrive on a college campus. We nd that maintaining social distancing at existing levels would be e ective in mitigating the extra seeding of cases. However, potential behavioral change and increased social interaction amongst students (30% increase in Re ) along with extra seeding can increase the number of cases by 20% over a period of one month in the encompassing county. To our knowledge, this work is the rst to model in near real-time, the interplay of human mobility, epidemic dynamics and public policies across multiple spatial resolutions and at a global scale. 
    more » « less
  3. Miller, Eva (Ed.)
    COVID-19 is a continuing global pandemic causing significant changes and modifications in the ways we teach and learn here in the U.S as well as around the world. Most universities, faculty members, and students modified their learning system by incorporating significant online or mixed learning methods/modes to reduce in person contact time and to reduce the spread of the virus. Universities, faculty and students were challenged as they adapted to new learning modules, strategies and approaches. This adaption started in the Spring of 2020 and has continued to date through the Spring of 2022. The main objective of this project was to investigate faculty perception of STEM student experiences and behavior during the Fall 2020 semester as compared to the Spring 2020 semester as COVID-19 impacts were prolonged. Through a qualitative methodology of zoom interviews administered to 32 STEM faculty members across six U.S. Universities nationwide and a theming scheme, the opinion and narratives of these faculty members were garnered in a round one and round two sets of interviews, in Summer 2020 and then in Spring 2021 (following the semesters of interest). Some of the main new themes that were detected in faculty interviews during the Fall 2020 semester and which reflect faculty perceptions are represented as follow: COVID-19 impact on student and faculty motivation, COVID-19 impacts on labs and experiential learning, COVID-19 impact on mental health, COVID-19 impact on STEM students' involvement in STEM experiential learning opportunities and research. Other previous themes detected and which are revisited to analyze major differences with those themes obtained during the Spring 2020 are presented and not limited to: extra efforts from professors, student cheating behavior, cheating factors and prevention, student behavioral and performance changes, student struggles and challenges, University response and efforts to the COVID-19 pandemic. We explored the differences in these themes between the semesters to look at noticed adaptations and modifications. Presented will also be recommendations to improve student and faculty motivation along with strategies to enhance the student learning experience during the COVID-19 pandemic. We report on common findings and suggest future strategies. 
    more » « less
  4. Benenson, Itzhak (Ed.)
    With the onset of COVID-19 and the resulting shelter in place guidelines combined with remote working practices, human mobility in 2020 has been dramatically impacted. Existing studies typically examine whether mobility in specific localities increases or decreases at specific points in time and relate these changes to certain pandemic and policy events. However, a more comprehensive analysis of mobility change over time is needed. In this paper, we study mobility change in the US through a five-step process using mobility footprint data. (Step 1) Propose the Delta Time Spent in Public Places (ΔTSPP) as a measure to quantify daily changes in mobility for each US county from 2019-2020. (Step 2) Conduct Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to reduce the ΔTSPP time series of each county to lower-dimensional latent components of change in mobility. (Step 3) Conduct clustering analysis to find counties that exhibit similar latent components. (Step 4) Investigate local and global spatial autocorrelation for each component. (Step 5) Conduct correlation analysis to investigate how various population characteristics and behavior correlate with mobility patterns. Results show that by describing each county as a linear combination of the three latent components, we can explain 59% of the variation in mobility trends across all US counties. Specifically, change in mobility in 2020 for US counties can be explained as a combination of three latent components: 1) long-term reduction in mobility, 2) no change in mobility, and 3) short-term reduction in mobility. Furthermore, we find that US counties that are geographically close are more likely to exhibit a similar change in mobility. Finally, we observe significant correlations between the three latent components of mobility change and various population characteristics, including political leaning, population, COVID-19 cases and deaths, and unemployment. We find that our analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of mobility change in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. 
    more » « less
  5. Abstract

    Despite COVID-19 vaccination programs, the threat of new SARS-CoV-2 strains and continuing pockets of transmission persists. While many U.S. universities replaced their traditional nine-day spring 2021 break with multiple breaks of shorter duration, the effects these schedules have on reducing COVID-19 incidence remains unclear. The main objective of this study is to quantify the impact of alternative break schedules on cumulative COVID-19 incidence on university campuses. Using student mobility data and Monte Carlo simulations of returning infectious student size, we developed a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered (SEIAR) model to simulate transmission dynamics among university students. As a case study, four alternative spring break schedules were derived from a sample of universities and evaluated. Across alternative multi-break schedules, the median percent reduction of total semester COVID-19 incidence, relative to a traditional nine-day break, ranged from 2 to 4% (for 2% travel destination prevalence) and 8–16% (for 10% travel destination prevalence). The maximum percent reduction from an alternate break schedule was estimated to be 37.6%. Simulation results show that adjusting academic calendars to limit student travel can reduce disease burden. Insights gleaned from our simulations could inform policies regarding appropriate planning of schedules for upcoming semesters upon returning to in-person teaching modalities.

     
    more » « less