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1. Probabilistic Species Tree Distances: Implementing the Multispecies Coalescent to Compare Species Trees Within the Same Model-Based Framework Used to Estimate Them

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syz031  

   Adams, Richard H; Castoe, Todd A; Burbrink, Frank (May 2019, Systematic Biology)

   Abstract Despite the ubiquitous use of statistical models for phylogenomic and population genomic inferences, this model-based rigor is rarely applied to post hoc comparison of trees. In a recent study, Garba et al. derived new methods for measuring the distance between two gene trees computed as the difference in their site pattern probability distributions. Unlike traditional metrics that compare trees solely in terms of geometry, these measures consider gene trees and associated parameters as probabilistic models that can be compared using standard information theoretic approaches. Consequently, probabilistic measures of phylogenetic tree distance can be far more informative than simply comparisons of topology and/or branch lengths alone. However, in their current form, these distance measures are not suitable for the comparison of species tree models in the presence of gene tree heterogeneity. Here, we demonstrate an approach for how the theory of Garba et al. (2018), which is based on gene tree distances, can be extended naturally to the comparison of species tree models. Multispecies coalescent (MSC) models parameterize the discrete probability distribution of gene trees conditioned upon a species tree with a particular topology and set of divergence times (in coalescent units), and thus provide a framework for measuring distances between species tree models in terms of their corresponding gene tree topology probabilities. We describe the computation of probabilistic species tree distances in the context of standard MSC models, which assume complete genetic isolation postspeciation, as well as recent theoretical extensions to the MSC in the form of network-based MSC models that relax this assumption and permit hybridization among taxa. We demonstrate these metrics using simulations and empirical species tree estimates and discuss both the benefits and limitations of these approaches. We make our species tree distance approach available as an R package called pSTDistanceR, for open use by the community. 

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2. An Evolving View of Phylogenetic Support

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syaa068  

   Simon, Chris (September 2020, Systematic Biology)

   Lanfear, Robert (Ed.)

   Abstract If all nucleotide sites evolved at the same rate within molecules and throughout the history of lineages, if all nucleotides were in equal proportion, if any nucleotide or amino acid evolved to any other with equal probability, if all taxa could be sampled, if diversification happened at well-spaced intervals, and if all gene segments had the same history, then tree building would be easy. But of course, none of those conditions are true. Hence, the need for evaluating the information content and accuracy of phylogenetic trees. The symposium for which this historical essay and presentation were developed focused on the importance of phylogenetic support, specifically branch support for individual clades. Here, I present a timeline and review significant events in the history of systematics that set the stage for the development of the sophisticated measures of branch support and examinations of the information content of data highlighted in this symposium. [Bayes factors; bootstrap; branch support; concordance factors; internode certainty; posterior probabilities; spectral analysis; transfer bootstrap expectation.] 

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3. MAST: Phylogenetic Inference with Mixtures Across Sites and Trees

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syae008  

   Wong, Thomas_K_F; Cherryh, Caitlin; Rodrigo, Allen_G; Hahn, Matthew_W; Minh, Bui_Quang; Lanfear, Robert; Matschiner, ed., Michael (February 2024, Systematic Biology)

   Abstract Hundreds or thousands of loci are now routinely used in modern phylogenomic studies. Concatenation approaches to tree inference assume that there is a single topology for the entire dataset, but different loci may have different evolutionary histories due to incomplete lineage sorting (ILS), introgression, and/or horizontal gene transfer; even single loci may not be treelike due to recombination. To overcome this shortcoming, we introduce an implementation of a multi-tree mixture model that we call mixtures across sites and trees (MAST). This model extends a prior implementation by Boussau et al. (2009) by allowing users to estimate the weight of each of a set of pre-specified bifurcating trees in a single alignment. The MAST model allows each tree to have its own weight, topology, branch lengths, substitution model, nucleotide or amino acid frequencies, and model of rate heterogeneity across sites. We implemented the MAST model in a maximum-likelihood framework in the popular phylogenetic software, IQ-TREE. Simulations show that we can accurately recover the true model parameters, including branch lengths and tree weights for a given set of tree topologies, under a wide range of biologically realistic scenarios. We also show that we can use standard statistical inference approaches to reject a single-tree model when data are simulated under multiple trees (and vice versa). We applied the MAST model to multiple primate datasets and found that it can recover the signal of ILS in the Great Apes, as well as the asymmetry in minor trees caused by introgression among several macaque species. When applied to a dataset of 4 Platyrrhine species for which standard concatenated maximum likelihood (ML) and gene tree approaches disagree, we observe that MAST gives the highest weight (i.e., the largest proportion of sites) to the tree also supported by gene tree approaches. These results suggest that the MAST model is able to analyze a concatenated alignment using ML while avoiding some of the biases that come with assuming there is only a single tree. We discuss how the MAST model can be extended in the future. 

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4. Exploring Conflicts in Whole Genome Phylogenetics: A Case Study Within Manakins (Aves: Pipridae)

   https://doi.org/10.1093/sysbio/syac062  

   Zhao, Min; Kurtis, Sarah M; White, Noor D; Moncrieff, Andre E; Leite, Rafael N; Brumfield, Robb T; Braun, Edward L; Kimball, Rebecca T (December 2022, Systematic Biology)

   Ruane, Sara (Ed.)

   Abstract Some phylogenetic problems remain unresolved even when large amounts of sequence data are analyzed and methods that accommodate processes such as incomplete lineage sorting are employed. In addition to investigating biological sources of phylogenetic incongruence, it is also important to reduce noise in the phylogenomic dataset by using appropriate filtering approach that addresses gene tree estimation errors. We present the results of a case study in manakins, focusing on the very difficult clade comprising the genera Antilophia and Chiroxiphia. Previous studies suggest that Antilophia is nested within Chiroxiphia, though relationships among Antilophia+Chiroxiphia species have been highly unstable. We extracted more than 11,000 loci (ultra-conserved elements and introns) from whole genomes and conducted analyses using concatenation and multispecies coalescent methods. Topologies resulting from analyses using all loci differed depending on the data type and analytical method, with 2 clades (Antilophia+Chiroxiphia and Manacus+Pipra+Machaeopterus) in the manakin tree showing incongruent results. We hypothesized that gene trees that conflicted with a long coalescent branch (e.g., the branch uniting Antilophia+Chiroxiphia) might be enriched for cases of gene tree estimation error, so we conducted analyses that either constrained those gene trees to include monophyly of Antilophia+Chiroxiphia or excluded these loci. While constraining trees reduced some incongruence, excluding the trees led to completely congruent species trees, regardless of the data type or model of sequence evolution used. We found that a suite of gene metrics (most importantly the number of informative sites and likelihood of intralocus recombination) collectively explained the loci that resulted in non-monophyly of Antilophia+Chiroxiphia. We also found evidence for introgression that may have contributed to the discordant topologies we observe in Antilophia+Chiroxiphia and led to deviations from expectations given the multispecies coalescent model. Our study highlights the importance of identifying factors that can obscure phylogenetic signal when dealing with recalcitrant phylogenetic problems, such as gene tree estimation error, incomplete lineage sorting, and reticulation events. [Birds; c-gene; data type; gene estimation error; model fit; multispecies coalescent; phylogenomics; reticulation] 

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5. Gene tree quality affects empirical coalescent branch length estimation

   https://doi.org/10.1111/zsc.12512  

   Forthman, Michael; Braun, Edward L.; Kimball, Rebecca T. (September 2021, Zoologica Scripta)

   Abstract Assessing effects of gene tree error in coalescent analyses have widely ignored coalescent branch lengths (CBLs) despite their potential utility in estimating ancestral population demographics and detecting species tree anomaly zones. However, the ability of coalescent methods to obtain accurate estimates remains largely unexplored. Errors in gene trees should lead to underestimates of the true CBL, and for a given set of comparisons, longer CBLs should be more accurate. Here, we furthered our empirical understanding of how error in gene tree quality (i.e., locus informativeness and gene tree resolution) affect CBLs using four datasets comprised of ultraconserved elements (UCE) or exons for clades that exhibit wide ranges of branch lengths. For each dataset, we compared the impact of locus informativeness (assessed using number of parsimony‐informative sites) and gene tree resolution on CBL estimates. Our results, in general, showed that CBLs were drastically shorter when estimates included low informative loci. Gene tree resolution also had an impact on UCE datasets, with polytomous gene trees producing longer branches than randomly resolved gene trees. However, resolution did not appear to affect CBL estimates from the more informative exon datasets. Thus, as expected, gene tree quality affects CBL estimates, though this can generally be minimized by using moderate filtering to select more informative loci and/or by allowing polytomies in gene trees. These approaches, as well as additional contributions to improve CBL estimation, should lead to CBLs that are useful for addressing evolutionary and biological questions. 

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