Real-time thermal monitoring and regulation are critical to the mitigation of thermal runaways and device failures in two-phase cooling systems. Compared to conventional approaches that rely on the Joule effect, thermal gradient or transverse thermoelectric effect, acoustic emission (AE)-based remote sensing is more promising for robust and non-intrusive thermal monitoring. Nevertheless, due to the high stochasticity and noise of acoustic signals, existing implementations of AE in thermal systems have been limited to qualitative state monitoring. In this paper, we present a technology for real-time heat flux quantification during two-phase cooling by coupling acoustic sensing using hydrophones and condenser microphones and regression-based machine learning frameworks. These frameworks integrate a fast Fourier transform feature extraction algorithm with regressors, i.e., Gaussian process regressor and multilayer perceptron regressor for heat flux predictions. The acoustic signals and heat fluxes are collected from pool boiling tests under transient heat loads. It is shown that both hydrophone and condenser microphone signals are successful in predicting heat flux. Multiple models are trained and compared some using only one form of acoustic data while others combine both acoustic types (i.e., hydrophone and microphone) in fusion ML models (i.e., early, joint, late). The models using only hydrophone data are shown to perform better than the models using only microphone data. Also, some forms of fusion are shown to have better performance than either of the single input data type models. This AE-ML technology is demonstrated for accurate heatflux quantification. As such, this work will not only lead to a light, low-cost, and non-contact thermal measurement technology but also a new perspective for the physical explanation of bubble dynamics during boiling.
A Comparative Study of Surrogate Based Learning Methods in Solving Power Flow Problem
Due to increasing volume of measurements in smart grids, surrogate based learning approaches for modeling the power grids are becoming popular. This paper uses regression based models to find the unknown state variables on power systems. Generally, to determine these states, nonlinear systems of power flow equations are solved iteratively. This study considers that the power flow problem can be modeled as an data driven type of a model. Then, the state variables, i.e., voltage magnitudes and phase angles are obtained using machine learning based approaches, namely, Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Several simulations are performed on the IEEE 14 and 30-Bus test systems to validate surrogate based learning based models. Moreover, input data was modified with noise to simulate measurement errors. Numerical results showed that all three models can find state variables reasonably well even with measurement noise.
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- Award ID(s):
- 2001732
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10214061
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 1 to 5
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Abstract -
Recently, there has been a major emphasis on developing data-driven approaches involving machine learning (ML) for high-speed static state estimation (SE) in power systems. The emphasis stems from the ability of ML to overcome difficulties associated with model-based approaches, such as handling of non-Gaussian measurement noise. However, topology changes pose a stiff challenge for performing ML-based SE because the training and test environments become different when such changes occur. This paper circumvents this challenge by formulating a graph neural network (GNN)-based time-synchronized state estimator that considers the physical connections of the power system during the training itself. The results obtained using the IEEE 118-bus system indicate that the GNN-based state estimator outperforms both the model-based linear state estimator and a data-driven deep neural network-based state estimator in the presence of non-Gaussian measurement noise and topology changes, respectively.more » « less
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Windecker, Saras (Ed.)1. The ecological and environmental science communities have embraced machine learning (ML) for empirical modelling and prediction. However, going beyond prediction to draw insights into underlying functional relationships between response variables and environmental ‘drivers’ is less straightforward. Deriving ecological insights from fitted ML models requires techniques to extract the ‘learning’ hidden in the ML models. 2. We revisit the theoretical background and effectiveness of four approaches for deriving insights from ML: ranking independent variable importance (Gini importance, GI; permutation importance, PI; split importance, SI; and conditional permutation importance, CPI), and two approaches for inference of bivariate functional relationships (partial dependence plots, PDP; and accumulated local effect plots, ALE). We also explore the use of a surrogate model for visualization and interpretation of complex multi-variate relationships between response variables and environmental drivers. We examine the challenges and opportunities for extracting ecological insights with these interpretation approaches. Specifically, we aim to improve interpretation of ML models by investigating how effectiveness relates to (a) interpretation algorithm, (b) sample size and (c) the presence of spurious explanatory variables. 3. We base the analysis on simulations with known underlying functional relationships between response and predictor variables, with added white noise and the presence of correlated but non-influential variables. The results indicate that deriving ecological insight is strongly affected by interpretation algorithm and spurious variables, and moderately impacted by sample size. Removing spurious variables improves interpretation of ML models. Meanwhile, increasing sample size has limited value in the presence of spurious variables, but increasing sample size does improves performance once spurious variables are omitted. Among the four ranking methods, SI is slightly more effective than the other methods in the presence of spurious variables, while GI and SI yield higher accuracy when spurious variables are removed. PDP is more effective in retrieving underlying functional relationships than ALE, but its reliability declines sharply in the presence of spurious variables. Visualization and interpretation of the interactive effects of predictors and the response variable can be enhanced using surrogate models, including three-dimensional visualizations and use of loess planes to represent independent variable effects and interactions. 4. Machine learning analysts should be aware that including correlated independent variables in ML models with no clear causal relationship to response variables can interfere with ecological inference. When ecological inference is important, ML models should be constructed with independent variables that have clear causal effects on response variables. While interpreting ML models for ecological inference remains challenging, we show that careful choice of interpretation methods, exclusion of spurious variables and adequate sample size can provide more and better opportunities to ‘learn from machine learning’.more » « less
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Numerical models based on physics represent the state of the art in Earth system modeling and comprise our best tools for generating insights and predictions. Despite rapid growth in computational power, the perceived need for higher model resolutions overwhelms the latest generation computers, reducing the ability of modelers to generate simulations for understanding parameter sensitivities and characterizing variability and uncertainty. Thus, surrogate models are often developed to capture the essential attributes of the full-blown numerical models. Recent successes of machine learning methods, especially deep learning (DL), across many disciplines offer the possibility that complex nonlinear connectionist representations may be able to capture the underlying complex structures and nonlinear processes in Earth systems. A difficult test for DL-based emulation, which refers to function approximation of numerical models, is to understand whether they can be comparable to traditional forms of surrogate models in terms of computational efficiency while simultaneously reproducing model results in a credible manner. A DL emulation that passes this test may be expected to perform even better than simple models with respect to capturing complex processes and spatiotemporal dependencies. Here, we examine, with a case study in satellite-based remote sensing, the hypothesis that DL approaches can credibly represent the simulations from a surrogate model with comparable computational efficiency. Our results are encouraging in that the DL emulation reproduces the results with acceptable accuracy and often even faster performance. We discuss the broader implications of our results in light of the pace of improvements in high-performance implementations of DL and the growing desire for higher resolution simulations in the Earth sciences.more » « less
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null (Ed.)Recent advances in computing algorithms and hardware have rekindled interest in developing high-accuracy, low-cost surrogate models for simulating physical systems. The idea is to replace expensive numerical integration of complex coupled partial differential equations at fine time scales performed on supercomputers, with machine-learned surrogates that efficiently and accurately forecast future system states using data sampled from the underlying system. One particularly popular technique being explored within the weather and climate modelling community is the echo state network (ESN), an attractive alternative to other well-known deep learning architectures. Using the classical Lorenz 63 system, and the three tier multi-scale Lorenz 96 system (Thornes T, Duben P, Palmer T. 2017 Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 143 , 897–908. ( doi:10.1002/qj.2974 )) as benchmarks, we realize that previously studied state-of-the-art ESNs operate in two distinct regimes, corresponding to low and high spectral radius (LSR/HSR) for the sparse, randomly generated, reservoir recurrence matrix. Using knowledge of the mathematical structure of the Lorenz systems along with systematic ablation and hyperparameter sensitivity analyses, we show that state-of-the-art LSR-ESNs reduce to a polynomial regression model which we call Domain-Driven Regularized Regression (D2R2). Interestingly, D2R2 is a generalization of the well-known SINDy algorithm (Brunton SL, Proctor JL, Kutz JN. 2016 Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113 , 3932–3937. ( doi:10.1073/pnas.1517384113 )). We also show experimentally that LSR-ESNs (Chattopadhyay A, Hassanzadeh P, Subramanian D. 2019 ( http://arxiv.org/abs/1906.08829 )) outperform HSR ESNs (Pathak J, Hunt B, Girvan M, Lu Z, Ott E. 2018 Phys. Rev. Lett. 120 , 024102. ( doi:10.1103/PhysRevLett.120.024102 )) while D2R2 dominates both approaches. A significant goal in constructing surrogates is to cope with barriers to scaling in weather prediction and simulation of dynamical systems that are imposed by time and energy consumption in supercomputers. Inexact computing has emerged as a novel approach to helping with scaling. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of three models (LSR-ESN, HSR-ESN and D2R2) by varying the precision or word size of the computation as our inexactness-controlling parameter. For precisions of 64, 32 and 16 bits, we show that, surprisingly, the least expensive D2R2 method yields the most robust results and the greatest savings compared to ESNs. Specifically, D2R2 achieves 68 × in computational savings, with an additional 2 × if precision reductions are also employed, outperforming ESN variants by a large margin. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Machine learning for weather and climate modelling’.more » « less
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Conference Paper:
- https://doi.org/10.1109/PESGM41954.2020.9281640
