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Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size–fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.
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Generalized additive models reveal among-stand variation in live tree biomass equations
Accurate estimation of forest biomass is important for scientists and policymakers interested in carbon accounting, nutrient cycling, and forest resilience. Estimates often rely on the allometry of trees; however, limited datasets, uncertainty in model form, and unaccounted for sources of variation warrant a re-examination of allometric relationships using modern statistical techniques. We asked the following questions: (1) Is there among-stand variation in allometric relationships? (2) Is there nonlinearity in allometric relationships? (3) Can among-stand variation or nonlinearities in allometric equations be attributed to differences in stand age? (4) What are the implications for biomass estimation? To answer these questions, we synthesized a dataset of small trees from six different studies in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. We compared the performance of generalized additive models (GAMs) and linear models and found that GAMs consistently outperform linear models. The best-fitting model indicates that allometries vary among both stands and species and contain subtle nonlinearities which are themselves variable by species. Using a planned contrasts analysis, we were able to attribute some of the observed among-stand heterogeneity to differences in stand age. However, variability in these results point to additional sources of stand-level heterogeneity, which if identified could improve the accuracy of live-tree biomass estimation.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1637685
- PAR ID:
- 10214816
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Canadian Journal of Forest Research
- ISSN:
- 0045-5067
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2020-0219
