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Abstract This work investigates how the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) tornadoes and ambient (i.e., synoptic-scale) deep-tropospheric (i.e., 850–200-hPa) vertical wind shear (VWS) varies between coastal and inland environments. Observed U.S. TC tornado track data are used to study tornado frequency and location, while dropsonde and radiosonde data are used to analyze convective-scale environments. To study the variability in the TC tornado–VWS relationship, these data are categorized by both 1) their distance from the coast and 2) reanalysis-derived VWS magnitude. The analysis shows that TCs produce coastal tornadoes regardless of VWS magnitude primarily in their downshear sector, with tornadoes most frequently occurring in strongly sheared cases. Inland tornadoes, including the most damaging cases, primarily occur in strongly sheared TCs within the outer radii of the downshear-right quadrant. Consistent with these patterns, dropsondes and coastal radiosondes show that the downshear-right quadrant of strongly sheared TCs has the most favorable combination of enhanced lower-tropospheric near-surface speed shear and veering, and reduced lower-tropospheric thermodynamic stability for tornadic supercells. Despite the weaker intensity farther inland, these kinematic conditions are even more favorable in inland environments within the downshear-right quadrant of strongly sheared TCs, due to the strengthened veering of the ambient winds and the lack of changes in the TC outer tangential wind field strength. The constructive superposition of the ambient and TC winds may be particularly important to inland tornado occurrence. Together, these results will allow forecasters to anticipate how the frequency and location of tornadoes and, more broadly, convection may change as TCs move inland.
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Factors Affecting the Weakening Rate of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific
Abstract In this study, based on the 6-hourly tropical cyclone (TC) best track data and the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, statistical analyses as well as a machine learning approach, XGBoost, are used to identify and quantify factors that affect the overwater weakening rate (WR) of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP) during 1980–2017. Statistical analyses show that the TC rapid weakening events usually occur when intense TCs cross regions with a sharp decrease in sea surface temperature (DSST) with relatively faster eastward or northward translational speeds, and move into regions with large environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) and dry conditions in the upshear-left quadrant. Results from XGBoost indicate that the relative intensity of TC (TC intensity normalized by its maximum potential intensity), DSST, and VWS are dominant factors determining TC WR, contributing 26.0%, 18.3%, and 14.9% to TC WR, and 9, 5, and 5 m s−1 day−1 to the variability of TC WR, respectively. Relative humidity in the upshear-left quadrant of VWS, zonal translational speed, divergence at 200 hPa, and meridional translational speed contribute 12.1%, 11.8%, 8.8%, and 8.1% to TC WR, respectively, but only contribute 2–3 m s−1 day−1 to the variability of TC WR individually. These findings suggest that the improved accurate analysis and prediction of the dominant factors may lead to substantial improvements in the prediction of TC WR.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1834300
- PAR ID:
- 10216229
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Monthly Weather Review
- Volume:
- 148
- Issue:
- 9
- ISSN:
- 0027-0644
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 3693 to 3712
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0356.1
