Abstract Understanding the community ecology of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, and how it may shift transmission risk as it responds to environmental change, has become a central focus in disease ecology. Yet, it has been challenging to link the ecology of disease with reported human incidence. Here, we bridge the gap between local-scale community ecology and large-scale disease epidemiology, drawing from a priori knowledge of tick-pathogen-host ecology to model spatially-explicit Lyme disease (LD) risk, and human Lyme disease incidence (LDI) in California. We first use a species distribution modeling approach to model disease risk with variables capturing climate, vegetation, and ecology of key reservoir host species, and host species richness. We then use our modeled disease risk to predict human disease incidence at the zip code level across California. Our results suggest the ecology of key reservoir hosts—particularly dusky-footed woodrats—is central to disease risk posed by ticks, but that host community richness is not strongly associated with tick infection. Predicted disease risk, which is most strongly influenced by the ecology of dusky-footed woodrats, in turn is a strong predictor of human LDI. This relationship holds in the Wildland-Urban Interface, but not in open access public lands, and is stronger in northern California than in the state as a whole. This suggests peridomestic exposure to infected ticks may be more important to LD epidemiology in California than recreational exposure, and underlines the importance of the community ecology of LD in determining human transmission risk throughout this LD endemic region of far western North America. More targeted tick and pathogen surveillance, coupled with studies of human and tick behavior could improve understanding of key risk factors and inform public health interventions. Moreover, longitudinal surveillance data could further improve forecasts of disease risk in response to global environmental change.
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Likely Geographic Distributional Shifts among Medically Important Tick Species and Tick-Associated Diseases under Climate Change in North America: A Review
Ticks rank high among arthropod vectors in terms of numbers of infectious agents that they transmit to humans, including Lyme disease, Rocky Mountain spotted fever, Colorado tick fever, human monocytic ehrlichiosis, tularemia, and human granulocytic anaplasmosis. Increasing temperature is suspected to affect tick biting rates and pathogen developmental rates, thereby potentially increasing risk for disease incidence. Tick distributions respond to climate change, but how their geographic ranges will shift in future decades and how those shifts may translate into changes in disease incidence remain unclear. In this study, we have assembled correlative ecological niche models for eight tick species of medical or veterinary importance in North America (Ixodes scapularis, I. pacificus, I. cookei, Dermacentor variabilis, D. andersoni, Amblyomma americanum, A. maculatum, and Rhipicephalus sanguineus), assessing the distributional potential of each under both present and future climatic conditions. Our goal was to assess whether and how species’ distributions will likely shift in coming decades in response to climate change. We interpret these patterns in terms of likely implications for tick-associated diseases in North America.
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- Award ID(s):
- 1920946
- NSF-PAR ID:
- 10223068
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- Insects
- Volume:
- 12
- Issue:
- 3
- ISSN:
- 2075-4450
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- 225
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Reisen, William (Ed.)Abstract The incidence of tick-borne diseases has increased in recent decades and accounts for the majority of vector-borne disease cases in temperate areas of Europe, North America, and Asia. This emergence has been attributed to multiple and interactive drivers including changes in climate, land use, abundance of key hosts, and people’s behaviors affecting the probability of human exposure to infected ticks. In this forum paper, we focus on how land use changes have shaped the eco-epidemiology of Ixodes scapularis-borne pathogens, in particular the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto in the eastern United States. We use this as a model system, addressing other tick-borne disease systems as needed to illustrate patterns or processes. We first examine how land use interacts with abiotic conditions (microclimate) and biotic factors (e.g., host community composition) to influence the enzootic hazard, measured as the density of host-seeking I. scapularis nymphs infected with B. burgdorferi s.s. We then review the evidence of how specific landscape configuration, in particular forest fragmentation, influences the enzootic hazard and disease risk across spatial scales and urbanization levels. We emphasize the need for a dynamic understanding of landscapes based on tick and pathogen host movement and habitat use in relation to human resource provisioning. We propose a coupled natural-human systems framework for tick-borne diseases that accounts for the multiple interactions, nonlinearities and feedbacks in the system and conclude with a call for standardization of methodology and terminology to help integrate studies conducted at multiple scales.more » « less
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Amblyomma maculatum (Gulf Coast tick), and Dermacentor andersoni (Rocky Mountain wood tick) are two North American ticks that transmit spotted fevers associated Rickettsia . Amblyomma maculatum transmits Rickettsia parkeri and Francisella tularensis , while D. andersoni transmits R. rickettsii , Anaplasma marginale , Coltivirus (Colorado tick fever virus), and F. tularensis . Increases in temperature causes mild winters and more extreme dry periods during summers, which will affect tick populations in unknown ways. Here, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential geographic distributions of these two medically important vector species in North America under current condition and then transfer those models to the future under different future climate scenarios with special interest in highlighting new potential expansion areas. Current model predictions for A. maculatum showed suitable areas across the southern and Midwest United States, and east coast, western and southern Mexico. For D. andersoni , our models showed broad suitable areas across northwestern United States. New potential for range expansions was anticipated for both tick species northward in response to climate change, extending across the Midwest and New England for A. maculatum , and still farther north into Canada for D. andersoni .more » « less
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Rich, Stephen (Ed.)Abstract Tick-borne diseases are a growing problem in many parts of the world, and their surveillance and control touch on challenging issues in medical entomology, agricultural health, veterinary medicine, and biosecurity. Spatial approaches can be used to synthesize the data generated by integrative One Health surveillance systems, and help stakeholders, managers, and medical geographers understand the current and future distribution of risk. Here, we performed a systematic review of over 8,000 studies and identified a total of 303 scientific publications that map tick-borne diseases using data on vectors, pathogens, and hosts (including wildlife, livestock, and human cases). We find that the field is growing rapidly, with the major Ixodes-borne diseases (Lyme disease and tick-borne encephalitis in particular) giving way to monitoring efforts that encompass a broader range of threats. We find a tremendous diversity of methods used to map tick-borne disease, but also find major gaps: data on the enzootic cycle of tick-borne pathogens is severely underutilized, and mapping efforts are mostly limited to Europe and North America. We suggest that future work can readily apply available methods to track the distributions of tick-borne diseases in Africa and Asia, following a One Health approach that combines medical and veterinary surveillance for maximum impact.more » « less
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Abstract To better understand tick ecology in Virginia and the increasing Lyme disease incidence in western Virginia, a comparative phenological study was conducted in which monthly collections were performed at twelve sampling locations in southwestern Virginia (high Lyme disease incidence) and 18 equivalent sampling locations in southeastern Virginia (low Lyme disease incidence) for one year. In western Virginia, we also explored the effect of elevation on collection rates of Ixodes scapularis Say (Acari: Ixodidae) and Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae). In total, 35,438 ticks were collected (33,106 A. americanum; 2,052 I. scapularis; 134 Ixodes affinis Neumann [Acari: Ixodidae]; 84 Dermacentor variabilis [Say] [Acari: Ixodidae]; 49 Dermacentor albipictus [Packard] [Acari: Ixodidae]; 10 Haemaphysalis leporispalustris [Packard] [Acari: Ixodidae]; 2 Ixodes brunneus Koch [Acari: Ixodidae]; 1 Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann [Acari: Ixodidae]). Within southwestern Virginia, Ixodes scapularis collection rates were not influenced by elevation, unlike A. americanum which were collected more frequently at lower elevations (e.g., below 500 m). Notably, I. scapularis larvae and nymphs were commonly collected in southwestern Virginia (indicating that they were questing on or above the leaf litter) but not in southeastern Virginia. Questing on or above the leaf litter is primarily associated with northern populations of I. scapularis. These findings may support the hypothesis that I. scapularis from the northeastern United States are migrating into western Virginia and contributing to the higher incidence of Lyme disease in this region. This comparative phenological study underscores the value of these types of studies and the need for additional research to further understand the rapidly changing tick-borne disease dynamics in Virginia.
- Free Publicly Accessible Full Text
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.3390/insects12030225
