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Abstract Increasingly, geographic approaches to assessing the risk of tick‐borne diseases are being used to inform public health decision‐making and surveillance efforts. The distributions of key tick species of medical importance are often modeled as a function of environmental factors, using niche modeling approaches to capture habitat suitability. However, this is often disconnected from the potential distribution of key host species, which may play an important role in the actual transmission cycle and risk potential in expanding tick‐borne disease risk. Using species distribution modeling, we explore the potential geographic range ofOryzomys palustris, the marsh rice rat, which has been implicated as a potential reservoir host ofRickettsia parkeri, a pathogen transmitted by the Gulf Coast tick (Amblyomma maculatum) in the southeastern United States. Due to recent taxonomic reclassification ofO. palustrissubspecies, we reclassified geolocated collections records into the newer clade definitions. We modeled the distribution of the two updated clades in the region, establishing for the first time, range maps and distributions of these two clades. The predicted distribution of both clades indicates a largely Gulf and southeastern coastal distribution. Estimated suitable habitat forO. palustrisextends into the southern portion of the Mid‐Atlantic region, with a discontinuous, limited area of suitability in coastal California. Broader distribution predictions suggest potential incursions along the Mississippi River. We found considerable overlap of predictedO. palustrisranges with the distribution ofA. maculatum, indicating the potential need for extended surveillance efforts in those overlapping areas and attention to the role of hosts in transmission cycles.
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Climate change influences on the geographic distributional potential of the spotted fever vectors Amblyomma maculatum and Dermacentor andersoni
Amblyomma maculatum (Gulf Coast tick), and Dermacentor andersoni (Rocky Mountain wood tick) are two North American ticks that transmit spotted fevers associated Rickettsia . Amblyomma maculatum transmits Rickettsia parkeri and Francisella tularensis , while D. andersoni transmits R. rickettsii , Anaplasma marginale , Coltivirus (Colorado tick fever virus), and F. tularensis . Increases in temperature causes mild winters and more extreme dry periods during summers, which will affect tick populations in unknown ways. Here, we used ecological niche modeling (ENM) to assess the potential geographic distributions of these two medically important vector species in North America under current condition and then transfer those models to the future under different future climate scenarios with special interest in highlighting new potential expansion areas. Current model predictions for A. maculatum showed suitable areas across the southern and Midwest United States, and east coast, western and southern Mexico. For D. andersoni , our models showed broad suitable areas across northwestern United States. New potential for range expansions was anticipated for both tick species northward in response to climate change, extending across the Midwest and New England for A. maculatum , and still farther north into Canada for D. andersoni .
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- Award ID(s):
- 1920946
- PAR ID:
- 10395082
- Date Published:
- Journal Name:
- PeerJ
- Volume:
- 10
- ISSN:
- 2167-8359
- Page Range / eLocation ID:
- e13279
- Format(s):
- Medium: X
- Sponsoring Org:
- National Science Foundation
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Accepted Manuscript1.0
- Journal Article:
- https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.13279
