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1. Predicting the fundamental thermal niche of crop pests and diseases in a changing world: A case study on citrus greening

   https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13455  

   Taylor, Rachel A. ; Ryan, Sadie J. ; Lippi, Catherine A. ; Hall, David G. ; Narouei‐Khandan, Hossein A. ; Rohr, Jason R. ; Johnson, Leah R. ; Flory, ed., Luke ( July 2019 , Journal of Applied Ecology)

   Predicting where crop pests and diseases can occur, both now and in the future under different climate change scenarios, is a major challenge for crop management. One solution is to estimate the fundamental thermal niche of the pest/disease to indicate where establishment is possible. Here, we develop methods for estimating and displaying the fundamental thermal niche of pests and pathogens and apply these methods to Huanglongbing (HLB), a vector‐borne disease that is currently threatening the citrus industry worldwide.

   We derive a suitability metric based on a mathematical model of HLB transmission between tree hosts and its vectorDiaphorina citri, and incorporate the effect of temperature on vector traits using data from laboratory experiments performed at different temperatures. We validate the model using data on the historical range of HLB.

   Our model predicts that transmission of HLB is possible between 16 and 33°C with peak transmission at ~25°C. The greatest uncertainty in our suitability metric is associated with the mortality of the vectors at peak transmission, and fecundity at the edges of the thermal range, indicating that these parameters need further experimental work.

   We produce global thermal niche maps by plotting how many months each location is suitable for establishment of the pest/disease. This analysis reveals that the highest suitability for HLB occurs near the equator in large citrus‐producing regions, such as Brazil and South‐East Asia. Within the Northern Hemisphere, the Iberian peninsula and California are HLB suitable for up to 7 months of the year and are free of HLB currently.

   Policy implications. We create a thermal niche map which indicates the places at greatest risk of establishment should a crop disease or pest enter these regions. This indicates where surveillance should be focused to prevent establishment. Our mechanistic method can be used to predict new areas for Huanglongbing transmission under different climate change scenarios and is easily adapted to other vector‐borne diseases and crop pests.

    

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2. Estimating the distribution of Oryzomys palustris , a potential key host in expanding rickettsial tick‐borne disease risk

   https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4445  

   Lippi, Catherine A. ; Canfield, Samuel ; Espada, Christina ; Gaff, Holly D. ; Ryan, Sadie J. ( March 2023 , Ecosphere)

   Increasingly, geographic approaches to assessing the risk of tick‐borne diseases are being used to inform public health decision‐making and surveillance efforts. The distributions of key tick species of medical importance are often modeled as a function of environmental factors, using niche modeling approaches to capture habitat suitability. However, this is often disconnected from the potential distribution of key host species, which may play an important role in the actual transmission cycle and risk potential in expanding tick‐borne disease risk. Using species distribution modeling, we explore the potential geographic range ofOryzomys palustris, the marsh rice rat, which has been implicated as a potential reservoir host ofRickettsia parkeri, a pathogen transmitted by the Gulf Coast tick (Amblyomma maculatum) in the southeastern United States. Due to recent taxonomic reclassification ofO. palustrissubspecies, we reclassified geolocated collections records into the newer clade definitions. We modeled the distribution of the two updated clades in the region, establishing for the first time, range maps and distributions of these two clades. The predicted distribution of both clades indicates a largely Gulf and southeastern coastal distribution. Estimated suitable habitat forO. palustrisextends into the southern portion of the Mid‐Atlantic region, with a discontinuous, limited area of suitability in coastal California. Broader distribution predictions suggest potential incursions along the Mississippi River. We found considerable overlap of predictedO. palustrisranges with the distribution ofA. maculatum, indicating the potential need for extended surveillance efforts in those overlapping areas and attention to the role of hosts in transmission cycles.

    

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3. Longer study length, standardized sampling techniques, and broader geographic scope leads to higher likelihood of detecting stable abundance patterns in long term black-legged tick studies

   https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.13916  

   Christie, Rowan ; Stack Whitney, Kaitlin ; Perrone, Julia ; Bahlai, Christie A. ( January 2022 , PeerJ)

   Background Understanding how study design and monitoring strategies shape inference within, and synthesis across, studies is critical across biological disciplines. Many biological and field studies are short term and limited in scope. Monitoring studies are critical for informing public health about potential vectors of concern, such as Ixodes scapularis (black-legged ticks). Black-legged ticks are a taxon of ecological and human health concern due to their status as primary vectors of Borrelia burgdorferi , the bacteria that transmits Lyme disease. However, variation in black-legged tick monitoring, and gaps in data, are currently considered major barriers to understanding population trends and in turn, predicting Lyme disease risk. To understand how variable methodology in black-legged tick studies may influence which population patterns researchers find, we conducted a data synthesis experiment. Materials and Methods We searched for publicly available black-legged tick abundance dataset that had at least 9 years of data, using keywords about ticks in internet search engines, literature databases, data repositories and public health websites. Our analysis included 289 datasets from seven surveys from locations in the US, ranging in length from 9 to 24 years. We used a moving window analysis, a non-random resampling approach, to investigate the temporal stability of black-legged tick population trajectories across the US. We then used t-tests to assess differences in stability time across different study parameters. Results All of our sampled datasets required 4 or more years to reach stability. We also found several study factors can have an impact on the likelihood of a study reaching stability and of data leading to misleading results if the study does not reach stability. Specifically, datasets collected via dragging reached stability significantly faster than data collected via opportunistic sampling. Datasets that sampled larva reached stability significantly later than those that sampled adults or nymphs. Additionally, datasets collected at the broadest spatial scale (county) reached stability fastest. Conclusion We used 289 datasets from seven long term black-legged tick studies to conduct a non-random data resampling experiment, revealing that sampling design does shape inferences in black-legged tick population trajectories and how many years it takes to find stable patterns. Specifically, our results show the importance of study length, sampling technique, life stage, and geographic scope in understanding black-legged tick populations, in the absence of standardized surveillance methods. Current public health efforts based on existing black-legged tick datasets must take monitoring study parameters into account, to better understand if and how to use monitoring data to inform decisioning. We also advocate that potential future forecasting initiatives consider these parameters when projecting future black-legged tick population trends. 

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4. Ixodes Scapularis monitoring data compiled from 6 studies

   https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6540831  

   Christie, Rowan ; Stack, Kaitlin Whitney ; Perrone, Julia ; Bahlai, Christie ( January 2022 , Zenodo)

   This dataset lists 289 blacklegged tick population datasets from 6 studies that record abundance. These datasets were found by inputing keywords Ixodes Scapularis and tick in data repositories including Long Term Ecological Research data portal, National Ecological Observatory Network data portal, Google Datasets, Data Dryad, and Data One. The types of tick data recorded from these studies include density (number per square meter for example), proportion of ticks, count of ticks found on people. The locations of the datasets range from New York, New Jersey, Iowa, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, and range from 9 to 24 years in length. These datasets vary in that some record different life stages, geographic scope (county/town/plot), sampling technique (dragging/surveying), and different study length. The impact of these study factors on study results is analyzed in our research.

   Funding:

   RMC is supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of the Health under Award Number R25GM122672. CAB, JP, and KSW are supported by the Office of Advanced Cyberinfrastructure in the National Science Foundation under Award Number #1838807. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health or the National Science Foundation.

   {"references": ["Ellison A. 2017. Incidence of Ticks and Tick Bites at Harvard Forest since 2006. Environmental Data Initiative. https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/71f12a4ffb7658e71a010866d1805a84. Dataset accessed 6/25/2019", "New York State Department of Health Office of Public Health. 2019. Deer Tick Surveillance: Adults (Oct to Dec) excluding Powassan virus: Beginning 2008. https://health.data.ny.gov/Health/Deer-Tick-Surveillance-Nymphs-May-to-Sept-excludin/kibp-u2ip", "New York State Department of Health Office of Public Health. 2019. Access Nymph Deer Tick Collection Data by County (Excluding Powassan Virus). https://health.data.ny.gov/Health/Deer-Tick-Surveillance-Nymphs-May-to-Sept-excludin/kibp-u2ip", "Ostfeld RS, Levi T, Keesing F, Oggenfuss K, Canham CD (2018) Data from: Tick-borne disease risk in a forest food web. Dryad Digital Repository. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.d1c8046", "Oliver JD, Bennett SW, Beati L, Bartholomay LC (2017) Range Expansion and Increasing Borrelia burgdorferi Infection of the Tick Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) in Iowa, 1990\u20132013. Journal of Medical Entomology 54(6): 1727-1734. https://doi.org/10.1093/jme/tjx121", "The Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station. (n.d.). Summaries of tick testing. CT.gov. Retrieved May 12, 2022, from https://portal.ct.gov/CAES/Fact-Sheets/Tick-Summary/Summaries-of-Tick-Testing", "Jordan, R. A., & Egizi, A. (2019). The growing importance of lone star ticks in a Lyme disease endemic county: Passive tick surveillance in Monmouth County, NJ, 2006 - 2016. PloS one, 14(2), e0211778. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211778"]} 

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5. The macroecology and evolution of avian competence for Borrelia burgdorferi

   https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13256  

   Becker, Daniel J. ; Han, Barbara A. ; Kamath, ed., Pauline ( January 2021 , Global Ecology and Biogeography)

   Prediction of novel reservoirs of zoonotic pathogens would be improved by the identification of interspecific drivers of host competence (i.e., the ability to transmit pathogens to new hosts or vectors). Tick‐borne pathogens can provide a useful model system, because larvae become infected only when feeding on a competent host during their first blood meal. For tick‐borne diseases, competence has been studied best forBorrelia burgdorferisensu lato (Bbsl), which causes Lyme borreliosis. Major reservoirs include several small mammal species, but birds might play an under‐recognized role in human risk given their ability to disperse infected ticks across large spatial scales. Here, we provide a global synthesis of the ecological and evolutionary factors that determine the ability of bird species to infect larval ticks withBbsl.

   Global.

   1983–2019.

   Birds.

   We compiled a dataset ofBbsl competence across 183 bird species and applied meta‐analysis, phylogenetic factorization and boosted regression trees to describe spatial and temporal patterns in competence, characterize its phylogenetic distribution across birds, reconstruct its evolution and evaluate the trait profiles associated with competent avian species.

   Half of the sampled bird species show evidence of competence forBbsl. Competence displays moderate phylogenetic signal, has evolved multiple times across bird species and is pronounced in the genusTurdus. Trait‐based analyses distinguished competent birds with 80% accuracy and showed that such species have low baseline corticosterone, exist on both ends of the pace‐of‐life continuum, breed and winter at high latitudes and have broad migratory movements into their breeding range. We used these trait profiles to predict various likely but unsampled competent species, including novel concentrations of avian reservoirs within the Neotropics.

   Our results can generate new hypotheses for how birds contribute to the dynamics of tick‐borne pathogens and help to prioritize surveillance of likely but unsampled competent birds. Our findings also emphasize that birds display under‐recognized variation in their contributions to enzootic cycles ofBbsl and the broader need to consider competence in ecological and predictive studies of multi‐host pathogens.

    

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